Central Michigan Chippewas at UL Monroe Warhawks: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:30 PM ETb1Bank Fant Coliseum · at UL Monroe

LineCMU -3.5moved 1 toward CMU

Total153.5no move

Season records: C Michigan and UL Monroe
CMU	This season	ULM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CMU 79–73 · win probability CMU 69%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

CMU -3.5

moved 1 toward CMU

Total

153.5

model 151.4 · Under by 2

Model edge

CMU by 2

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CMU has more of the edges

CMU 6, ULM 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ULMBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CMU 31.4, ULM 38.8. Allowed: CMU 39.0, ULM 27.7

CMUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CMU 51.8 and allows 54.0; ULM 47.8 and allows 57.1

CMUSmall

CMU offense vs ULM defense

Offense 258th of 366 against a defense 361st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: CMU plays 68.3 a game (212th fastest), ULM 71.3 (58th). Faster games mean more points

CMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CMU 43%, ULM 1%. Transfers in: CMU 1, ULM 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CMUSmall

Three-pointers

CMU hits 33.9% and allows 35.5%; ULM hits 32.2% and allows 36.9%. Threes are 34.0% and 41.9% of their shots

CMUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CMU 29.2%, ULM 25.1%. Defensive: CMU 65.7%, ULM 64.6%

Context

Schedule so far

CMU has played the 158th-hardest schedule, ULM the 216th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ULMSmall

Home court

ULM at home. This season: ULM 0-0 at home, CMU 0-0 away

CMUSmall

ULM offense vs CMU defense

Offense 332nd of 366 against a defense 287th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CMU 18.1%, ULM 16.9%. Forced: CMU 16.9%, ULM 15.7%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of 3 to 6.5	1543	67%	51%	50%
Non-conference games at this spread	1736	67%	50%	49%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	6763	75%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5	2755	75%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenCMU -2.5

1 → CMU

NowCMU -3.5

1 pt toward CMU

Total

Open153.5

no move

Now153.5

No change since the open

Moneyline

CMU -155 · ULM +125

Line movement

Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened CMU -2.5 · now CMU -3 · moved 0.5 toward CMUmodel CMU -5.5

model CMU -5.5

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5

Bets

24%76%

Money

26%74%

CMUWinner

ULM

Bets

85%15%

Money

96%

Money is 11 pts ahead of bets on CMU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	CMU	ULM	Over	Under	CMU	ULM
BetMGMMGM	+2.5-115	-2.5-105	152.5-115	152.5-105	-155	+125
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3-115	-3-105	153-105	153-115	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+2.5-112	-2.5-114	153.5-113	153.5-113	-155	+120
BetUSBetUS	+3-115	-3-105	153-105	153-115	—	—
BovadaBovada	+3-105	-3-115	153-110	153-110	-145	+125
DraftKingsDK	+3.5-102	-3.5-118	153.5-105	153.5-115	-155	+130
FanDuelFD	+2.5-112	-2.5-108	152.5-110	152.5-110	-146	+122
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+3-111	-3-101	153-103	153-113	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	CMU -3.5	CMU -5.5	CMU +2.0
Total	153.5	151.4	Under 2.1
Projected score	—	CMU 78.5 · ULM 72.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CMU -3.4	—
1H total	70.8	—
1H projected score	CMU 37.1 · ULM 33.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU WWWLL	16-13	55%	6-10	4-1
ULM WWLWW	17-12	59%	6-5	16-12

Venue/role: CMU away, as favorite; ULM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU OOUUO	13-16	45%	8-21
ULM UOUUO	20-9	69%	2-28

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ULM	1-9 10%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

C Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs YSU	L65–76LU
Nov 14	@ NKU	L66–90LO
Nov 17	@ DAY	No recent meeting

UL Monroe

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ TA&M	L54–87LO
Nov 10	@ TCU	L60–95LO
Nov 13	@ ASU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CMU 0–1 ULMULM leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CMU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2023-24	ULM 74 @ CMU 64	CMU -3.5	ULM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

C Michigan

29 games played

Straight up

8-21

28% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2128%

W L L W L L L L L L L L L L W L L L W W L L W L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1355%

W L W W L W L L L W L L W W W L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1645%

O U U U O O O O U U U U U U O O U U O U O O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAPP	W 82-66	-1.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 8	@BRAD	L 54-85	+9.5	L −21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 13	vsUSA	L 64-66	+5.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsCOPP	W 82-59	-10.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 141
Nov 20	vsNKU	L 66-90	-4.5	L −28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 22	@MARQ	L 71-85	+25.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 2	@LUC	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 155
Dec 7	@SLU	L 65-107	+24.5	L −17.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 13	@STBK	L 55-78	+7.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 20	@NIU	L 73-74	+2.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 22	@WIS	L 61-88	+26.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 149
Dec 30	vsOHIO	L 64-80	+6.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 3	vsTOL	L 75-78	+7.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@AKR	L 69-82	+23.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 151
Jan 10	vsKENT	W 87-85	+10.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 13	@M-OH	L 61-100	+15.5	L −23.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 20	vsBALL	L 67-68	+1.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 24	@WMU	L 65-77	+5.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 142
Jan 27	vsEMU	W 100-65	+2.5	W +37.5	139.5	O 165
Jan 31	vsBGSU	W 62-59	+8.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 121
Feb 3	@MASS	L 89-95	+11.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 184
Feb 7	@UL	L 80-85	+2.5	L −2.5	134.5	O 165
Feb 14	vsNIU	W 88-46	-4.5	W +37.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 17	@EMU	L 54-66	+4.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 120
Feb 21	vsWMU	W 83-70	-3.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 153
Feb 24	@KENT	L 81-83	+11.5	W +9.5	156.5	O 164
Feb 28	@BUF	W 75-70	+5.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsAKR	L 64-77	+11.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 141
Mar 6	@BALL	L 69-85	+2.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

APP

W 82-66

+14.5

BRAD

L 54-85

−21.5

USA

L 64-66

+3.5

COPP

W 82-59

+12.5

NKU

L 66-90

−28.5

MARQ

L 71-85

+11.5

LUC

L 72-83

−4.5

SLU

L 65-107

−17.5

STBK

L 55-78

−15.5

NIU

L 73-74

+1.5

WIS

L 61-88

−0.5

OHIO

L 64-80

−9.5

TOL

L 75-78

+4.5

AKR

L 69-82

+10.5

KENT

W 87-85

+12.5

M-OH

L 61-100

−23.5

BALL

L 67-68

+0.5

WMU

L 65-77

−6.5

EMU

W 100-65

+37.5

BGSU

W 62-59

+11.5

MASS

L 89-95

+5.5

L 80-85

−2.5

NIU

W 88-46

+37.5

EMU

L 54-66

−7.5

WMU

W 83-70

+9.5

KENT

L 81-83

+9.5

BUF

W 75-70

+10.5

AKR

L 64-77

−1.5

BALL

L 69-85

−13.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

APP

W 82-66

+5.5

BRAD

L 54-85

−8.5

USA

L 64-66

−12.5

COPP

W 82-59

−1.5

NKU

L 66-90

+9.5

MARQ

L 71-85

+3.5

LUC

L 72-83

+14.5

SLU

L 65-107

+11.5

STBK

L 55-78

−12.5

NIU

L 73-74

−2.5

WIS

L 61-88

−3.5

OHIO

L 64-80

−7.5

TOL

L 75-78

−5.5

AKR

L 69-82

−13.5

KENT

W 87-85

+15.5

M-OH

L 61-100

+2.5

BALL

L 67-68

−7.5

WMU

L 65-77

−6.5

EMU

W 100-65

+25.5

BGSU

W 62-59

−28.5

MASS

L 89-95

+31.5

L 80-85

+30.5

NIU

W 88-46

−12.5

EMU

L 54-66

−20.5

WMU

W 83-70

+2.5

KENT

L 81-83

+7.5

BUF

W 75-70

−6.5

AKR

L 64-77

−17.5

BALL

L 69-85

+19.5

over 13under 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

UL Monroe

30 games played

Straight up

2-28

7% wins

Against the spread

17-12

59% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-9

69% overs · avg +6.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-287%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L

8 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1259%

L W L L W L W L W W L W L W W W L L W–W W L L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-969%

O O U O O O U O O O O O O O O U U O U–O O U O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NIU	L 82-102	+7.5	L −12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@MISS	L 65-86	+37.5	W +16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 13	@HCU	L 61-72	+8.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 17	vsLAM	L 66-79	+11.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 22	vsMORE	L 80-83	+6.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 23	@ETSU	L 55-97	+19.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 3	vsMVSU	W 66-52	-9.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 118
Dec 7	@SFA	L 76-96	+19.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 13	@MIA	L 79-104	+35.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 183
Dec 17	vsUSA	L 92-96	+9.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 188
Dec 20	vsUL	L 62-76	+1.5	L −12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	@KSU	L 85-94	+32.5	W +23.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 1	vsUSM	L 73-87	+9.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 3	vsTXST	L 79-84	+10.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 8	@UL	L 79-85	+7.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 164
Jan 10	@USM	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 17	vsGAST	L 57-77	+6.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	@MRSH	L 60-115	+18.5	L −36.5	160.5	O 175
Jan 23	@APP	L 43-59	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 102
Jan 30	vsGASO	L 76-79	—	—	—	—
Feb 1	vsCCU	L 79-83	+10.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 162
Feb 4	@ODU	W 85-79	+14.5	W +20.5	154.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsBALL	L 68-73	+4.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 141
Feb 11	@ARST	L 70-103	+20.5	L −12.5	162.5	O 173
Feb 14	@TXST	L 84-95	+14.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 179
Feb 18	vsTROY	L 76-77	+17.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 21	vsARST	L 94-102	+15.5	W +7.5	165.5	O 196
Feb 25	@USA	L 54-89	+14.5	L −20.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 27	@TROY	L 65-80	+18.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsODU	L 80-87	+9.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

−12.5

MISS

L 65-86

+16.5

HCU

L 61-72

−2.5

LAM

L 66-79

−1.5

L 80-83

+3.5

ETSU

L 55-97

−22.5

MVSU

W 66-52

+4.5

SFA

L 76-96

−0.5

MIA

L 79-104

+10.5

USA

L 92-96

+5.5

L 62-76

−12.5

KSU

L 85-94

+23.5

USM

L 73-87

−4.5

TXST

L 79-84

+5.5

L 79-85

+1.5

USM

L 60-70

+4.5

GAST

L 57-77

−13.5

MRSH

L 60-115

−36.5

APP

L 43-59

+0.5

CCU

L 79-83

+6.5

ODU

W 85-79

+20.5

BALL

L 68-73

−0.5

ARST

L 70-103

−12.5

TXST

L 84-95

+3.5

TROY

L 76-77

+16.5

ARST

L 94-102

+7.5

USA

L 54-89

−20.5

TROY

L 65-80

+3.5

ODU

L 80-87

+2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 12avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

+36.5

MISS

L 65-86

+1.5

HCU

L 61-72

−10.5

LAM

L 66-79

+4.5

L 80-83

+17.5

ETSU

L 55-97

+5.5

MVSU

W 66-52

−31.5

SFA

L 76-96

+29.5

MIA

L 79-104

+29.5

USA

L 92-96

+39.5

L 62-76

+1.5

KSU

L 85-94

+9.5

USM

L 73-87

+7.5

TXST

L 79-84

+12.5

L 79-85

+24.5

USM

L 60-70

−25.5

GAST

L 57-77

−21.5

MRSH

L 60-115

+14.5

APP

L 43-59

−42.5

CCU

L 79-83

+15.5

ODU

W 85-79

+9.5

BALL

L 68-73

−2.5

ARST

L 70-103

+10.5

TXST

L 84-95

+29.5

TROY

L 76-77

−0.5

ARST

L 94-102

+30.5

USA

L 54-89

−10.5

TROY

L 65-80

−8.5

ODU

L 80-87

+9.5

over 20under 9avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: C Michigan 1, UL Monroe 1, even 3

C MichiganBetterUL Monroe

G J. Petty TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

Even

G D. Anderson TR5.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23

G P. Phat Brooks11.1 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 46

CMUBig

G K. London TR5.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1 ast Score 5

G J. Whitaker5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 11

ULMBig

G Q. McPherson TR4.4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 60

G J. Kampen4.1 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

No call

G R. Cowherd TR0.9 pts · 0 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

F K. Garner7.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35

No call

C J. Lafleur TR1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

C MichiganBetterUL Monroe

CMU offense258th of 366 · -8.0

CMUSmall

ULM defense361st of 366 · -11.5

CMU defense287th of 366 · -7.2

Even

ULM offense332nd of 366 · -10.8

Backcourt-6.1 · 4 players

ULMSmall

Backcourt-4.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.1 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestCMU betterULM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

C Michigan

Guards

J. Petty31 min · TRP. Phat Brooks29 minJ. Whitaker18 minJ. Kampen14 minJ. HackettNewU. AmeneNew

Forwards

K. Garner25 minT. AmbroseNewN. UsenNewJ. BascomNew

Centers

C. LuczynskiNewK. AburashedNewB. MendozaNew

UL Monroe

Guards

D. Anderson16 min · TRK. London14 min · TRQ. McPherson11 min · TRR. Cowherd5 min · TRC. Campbell1 minP. TillmanNew

Forwards

L. Carr2 min · TRG. ChamberlainNewJ. RegisteNewG. SchoentgenNew

Centers

J. Lafleur6 min · TRM. AdonryNewZ. NdanckyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CMU71.7 #256

ULM71.7 #255

Points per possession

CMU1.05 #248

ULM1.00 #321

Pace (possessions)

CMU68.3 #212

ULM71.3 #58

Shooting

Effective FG%

CMU51.8 #158

ULM47.8 #316

3-point %

CMU33.9 #181

ULM32.2 #270

3-point attempt rate

CMU34.0 #293

ULM41.9 #135

Free throw rate

CMU31.4 #269

ULM38.8 #85

Possessions

Turnover rate

CMU18.1 #279

ULM16.9 #196

Offensive rebound rate

CMU29.2 #230

ULM25.1 #338

Assists per game

CMU14.4 #120

ULM11.9 #288

Defense

Points allowed

CMU77.7 #258

ULM85.4 #361

Points allowed per possession

CMU1.14 #301

ULM1.20 #358

Opponent effective FG%

CMU54.0 #299

ULM57.1 #358

Opponent 3-point %

CMU35.5 #282

ULM36.9 #343

Turnovers forced

CMU16.9 #157

ULM15.7 #235

Defensive rebound rate

CMU65.7 #323

ULM64.6 #345

Steals per game

CMU6.1 #219

ULM6.0 #237

Blocks per game

CMU4.1 #64

ULM3.2 #189

CMU		ULM
Scoring
71.7 #256	Points per game	71.7 #255
1.05 #248	Points per possession	1.00 #321
68.3 #212	Pace (possessions)	71.3 #58
Shooting
51.8 #158	Effective FG%	47.8 #316
33.9 #181	3-point %	32.2 #270
34.0 #293	3-point attempt rate	41.9 #135
31.4 #269	Free throw rate	38.8 #85
Possessions
18.1 #279	Turnover rate	16.9 #196
29.2 #230	Offensive rebound rate	25.1 #338
14.4 #120	Assists per game	11.9 #288
Defense
77.7 #258	Points allowed	85.4 #361
1.14 #301	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #358
54.0 #299	Opponent effective FG%	57.1 #358
35.5 #282	Opponent 3-point %	36.9 #343
16.9 #157	Turnovers forced	15.7 #235
65.7 #323	Defensive rebound rate	64.6 #345
6.1 #219	Steals per game	6.0 #237
4.1 #64	Blocks per game	3.2 #189

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Michigan

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Ball State69–85
Lvs Akron64–77
W@ Buffalo75–70
L@ Kent State81–83
Wvs W Michigan83–70

A week or more of rest.

UL Monroe

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Old Dominion80–87
L@ Troy65–80
L@ South Alabama54–89
Lvs Arkansas St94–102
Lvs Troy76–77

A week or more of rest.