Mercyhurst Lakers at Marquette Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:30 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Marquette

LineMARQ -30.5no move

Total147.5down 1 from 148.5

Season records: Mercyhurst and Marquette
MERC	This season	MARQ
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MARQ 87–59 · win probability MARQ 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

MARQ -30.5

no move since the open

Total

147.5

model 145.8 · Under by 1.5

Model edge

MERC by 2.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

92% MERC

95% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MARQ has more of the edges

MERC 0, MARQ 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

MERC has played the 356th-hardest schedule, MARQ the 37th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MARQBig

MERC offense vs MARQ defense

Offense 346th of 366 against a defense 36th, on the model’s ratings

MARQBig

MARQ offense vs MERC defense

Offense 46th of 366 against a defense 272nd, on the model’s ratings

MARQBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MERC 25.6, MARQ 32.8. Allowed: MERC 42.6, MARQ 32.0

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: MERC plays 65.6 a game (327th fastest), MARQ 70.9 (79th). Faster games mean more points

MARQSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MERC 26%, MARQ 64%. Transfers in: MERC 3, MARQ 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

MARQSmall

Home court

MARQ at home. This season: MARQ 0-0 at home, MERC 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MERC 26.4%, MARQ 29.7%. Defensive: MERC 70.1%, MARQ 65.3%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MERC 14.3%, MARQ 16.1%. Forced: MERC 18.6%, MARQ 19.3%

Even

Three-pointers

MERC hits 32.1% and allows 32.3%; MARQ hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 31.1% and 42.2% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MERC 49.5 and allows 50.1; MARQ 50.5 and allows 50.6

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 20 or more	1165	99%	50%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	1090	99%	50%	52%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5	3547	74%	49%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenMARQ -30.5

no move

NowMARQ -30.5

No change since the open

Total

Open148.5

▼ 1

Now147.5

Down 1 since the open

Moneyline

—

Line movement

Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened MARQ -30.5 · now MARQ -31 · moved 0.5 toward MARQmodel MARQ -28

model MARQ -28

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

MERC +30.5Spread

MARQ -30.5

Bets

92%8%

Money

95%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	MERC	MARQ	Over	Under	MERC	MARQ
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-31-110	+31-110	147-105	147-115	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-30.5-115	+30.5-109	150.5+102	150.5-130	—	—
BovadaBovada	-31-110	+31-110	147-105	147-115	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-30.5-105	+30.5-115	147.5-115	147.5-105	—	—
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-31-106	+31-106	147-103	147-113	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	MARQ -30.5	MARQ -28.2	MERC +2.3
Total	147.5	145.8	Under 1.7
Projected score	—	MERC 58.8 · MARQ 87

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MARQ -16.6	—
1H total	68.2	—
1H projected score	MERC 25.8 · MARQ 42.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MERC WWWWL	21-10	68%	12-6	10-4
MARQ WLWWL	13-19	41%	7-10	3-11

Venue/role: MERC away, as underdog; MARQ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MERC OOUUO	15-16	48%	15-17
MARQ UUUUO	15-17	47%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MERC	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
MARQ	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mercyhurst

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ ND	No recent meeting
Nov 12	@ PSU	No recent meeting
Nov 15	@ JMU	No recent meeting

Marquette

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs DETM	No recent meeting
Nov 11	@ MICH	No recent meeting
Nov 15	vs MIZ	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mercyhurst

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

21-10

68% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

L W L W L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1068%

W W L W W W L–L W W L W W W L W W L W L W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1648%

U U U O O U U–U O O O U U O U O U U U O O U U O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NU	L 47-70	+26.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 6	@LUC	W 73-65	+21.5	W +29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 12	@CAN	L 55-58	-1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 15	vsMORG	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 20	@M-OH	L 71-76	+15.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 147
Nov 23	@MRSH	L 60-69	+11.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 129
Nov 30	@WVU	L 38-70	+21.5	L −10.5	127.5	U 108
Dec 5	@LAF	L 71-79	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	@DAV	L 47-80	+11.5	L −21.5	132.5	U 127
Dec 17	@SYR	L 62-76	+24.5	W +10.5	131.5	O 138
Dec 20	vsBING	W 82-61	-7.5	W +13.5	132.5	O 143
Jan 2	vsFDU	L 67-74	-5.5	L −12.5	133.5	O 141
Jan 4	vsLEM	W 74-60	-2.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 8	@LIU	L 58-60	+8.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 10	@WAG	W 70-69	+1.5	W +2.5	132.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsSTO	L 57-62	-4.5	L −9.5	128.5	U 119
Jan 19	vsCCSU	W 79-61	-1.5	W +16.5	132.5	O 140
Jan 23	@NHVN	W 61-57	-1.5	W +2.5	122.5	U 118
Jan 25	vsCHST	W 61-59	-9.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsNHVN	W 70-51	-5.5	W +13.5	122.5	U 121
Jan 31	@CHST	L 74-78	-2.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 152
Feb 5	vsSFPA	W 98-89	-6.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 187
Feb 7	@FDU	L 52-55	+2.5	L −0.5	131.5	U 107
Feb 12	@LEM	L 57-58	+2.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 115
Feb 14	@SFPA	W 94-79	-2.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 173
Feb 19	vsWAG	L 80-83	-3.5	L −6.5	133.5	O 163
Feb 21	vsLIU	W 91-83	+3.5	W +11.5	140.5	O 174
Feb 26	@CCSU	L 78-80	+3.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 28	@STO	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 147
Mar 4	vsFDU	W 70-61	-3.5	W +5.5	131.5	U 131
Mar 7	vsSTO	W 56-51	-4.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 107
Mar 10	@LIU	L 70-79	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-70

+3.5

LUC

W 73-65

+29.5

CAN

L 55-58

−4.5

MORG

W 86-72

+7.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+10.5

MRSH

L 60-69

+2.5

WVU

L 38-70

−10.5

DAV

L 47-80

−21.5

SYR

L 62-76

+10.5

BING

W 82-61

+13.5

FDU

L 67-74

−12.5

LEM

W 74-60

+11.5

LIU

L 58-60

+6.5

WAG

W 70-69

+2.5

STO

L 57-62

−9.5

CCSU

W 79-61

+16.5

NHVN

W 61-57

+2.5

CHST

W 61-59

−7.5

NHVN

W 70-51

+13.5

CHST

L 74-78

−6.5

SFPA

W 98-89

+2.5

FDU

L 52-55

−0.5

LEM

L 57-58

+1.5

SFPA

W 94-79

+12.5

WAG

L 80-83

−6.5

LIU

W 91-83

+11.5

CCSU

L 78-80

+1.5

STO

W 75-72

+1.5

FDU

W 70-61

+5.5

STO

W 56-51

+0.5

LIU

L 70-79

−4.5

covered 21didn’t cover 10avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-70

−23.5

LUC

W 73-65

−6.5

CAN

L 55-58

−22.5

MORG

W 86-72

+11.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+7.5

MRSH

L 60-69

−18.5

WVU

L 38-70

−19.5

DAV

L 47-80

−5.5

SYR

L 62-76

+6.5

BING

W 82-61

+10.5

FDU

L 67-74

+7.5

LEM

W 74-60

−7.5

LIU

L 58-60

−21.5

WAG

W 70-69

+6.5

STO

L 57-62

−9.5

CCSU

W 79-61

+7.5

NHVN

W 61-57

−4.5

CHST

W 61-59

−11.5

NHVN

W 70-51

−1.5

CHST

L 74-78

+22.5

SFPA

W 98-89

+49.5

FDU

L 52-55

−24.5

LEM

L 57-58

−23.5

SFPA

W 94-79

+34.5

WAG

L 80-83

+29.5

LIU

W 91-83

+33.5

CCSU

L 78-80

+16.5

STO

W 75-72

+9.5

FDU

W 70-61

−0.5

STO

W 56-51

−27.5

LIU

L 70-79

+14.5

over 15under 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marquette

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W L W L L W L W L L L L L L W L L L W L W L W L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

W L L W L L L W L L L L L L W L W L L L L W W W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O U O U O U O O U U U O U U O O O O O U U U O O U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUALB	W 80-53	-24.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 5	vsSOU	W 100-82	-24.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 9	vsIU	L 77-100	+3.5	L −19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsLR	W 89-49	-21.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMD	L 82-89	-8.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsDAY	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsCMU	W 85-71	-25.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsOU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsVAL	W 75-72	-17.5	L −14.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 6	@WIS	L 76-96	+11.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 13	@PUR	L 59-79	+16.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 138
Dec 17	vsGTWN	L 69-78	-6.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 20	@CREI	L 63-84	+6.5	L −14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 30	vsHALL	L 73-79	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 4	@CONN	L 57-73	+17.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 7	vsXAV	W 66-65	-5.5	L −4.5	157.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsVILL	L 73-76	+3.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 149
Jan 13	@SJU	L 68-92	+15.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 16	@DEP	L 75-80	+2.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 19	vsPROV	W 105-104	-2.5	L −1.5	167.5	O 209
Jan 23	@BTLR	L 76-87	+5.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 163
Jan 27	vsCREI	W 86-62	+1.5	W +25.5	154.5	U 148
Jan 31	@HALL	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 133
Feb 7	vsBTLR	W 70-55	-3.5	W +11.5	155.5	U 125
Feb 10	@VILL	L 74-77	+9.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 14	@XAV	L 88-96	+1.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 184
Feb 18	vsSJU	L 70-76	+8.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 146
Feb 24	@GTWN	W 76-60	+2.5	W +18.5	150.5	U 136
Mar 1	vsDEP	L 51-62	-4.5	L −15.5	139.5	U 113
Mar 4	@PROV	W 78-56	+3.5	W +25.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsCONN	W 68-62	+9.5	W +15.5	143.5	U 130
Mar 11	vsXAV	L 87-89	-4.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

+2.5

SOU

W 100-82

−6.5

L 77-100

−19.5

W 89-49

+18.5

L 82-89

−15.5

DAY

L 71-77

−12.5

CMU

W 85-71

−11.5

L 74-75

+0.5

VAL

W 75-72

−14.5

WIS

L 76-96

−8.5

PUR

L 59-79

−3.5

GTWN

L 69-78

−15.5

CREI

L 63-84

−14.5

HALL

L 73-79

−7.5

CONN

L 57-73

+1.5

XAV

W 66-65

−4.5

VILL

L 73-76

+0.5

SJU

L 68-92

−8.5

DEP

L 75-80

−2.5

PROV

W 105-104

−1.5

BTLR

L 76-87

−5.5

CREI

W 86-62

+25.5

HALL

L 64-69

+1.5

BTLR

W 70-55

+11.5

VILL

L 74-77

+6.5

XAV

L 88-96

−6.5

SJU

L 70-76

+2.5

GTWN

W 76-60

+18.5

DEP

L 51-62

−15.5

PROV

W 78-56

+25.5

CONN

W 68-62

+15.5

XAV

L 87-89

−6.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

−16.5

SOU

W 100-82

+26.5

L 77-100

+20.5

W 89-49

−17.5

L 82-89

+24.5

DAY

L 71-77

−3.5

CMU

W 85-71

+3.5

L 74-75

−13.5

VAL

W 75-72

+0.5

WIS

L 76-96

+11.5

PUR

L 59-79

−16.5

GTWN

L 69-78

−2.5

CREI

L 63-84

−4.5

HALL

L 73-79

+6.5

CONN

L 57-73

−14.5

XAV

W 66-65

−26.5

VILL

L 73-76

+2.5

SJU

L 68-92

+4.5

DEP

L 75-80

+9.5

PROV

W 105-104

+41.5

BTLR

L 76-87

+1.5

CREI

W 86-62

−6.5

HALL

L 64-69

−10.5

BTLR

W 70-55

−30.5

VILL

L 74-77

+6.5

XAV

L 88-96

+26.5

SJU

L 70-76

−11.5

GTWN

W 76-60

−14.5

DEP

L 51-62

−26.5

PROV

W 78-56

−27.5

CONN

W 68-62

−13.5

XAV

L 87-89

+18.5

over 15under 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Marquette has the better starters

Position by position: Mercyhurst 1, Marquette 3, even 1

MercyhurstBetterMarquette

G J. Lemelman14.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61

MERCSmall

G C. Porter TR11.2 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 45

G D. Kelly TR5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 6

MARQBig

G N. Minessale TR19.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 4.2 ast Score 97

G M. Jackson TR0.5 pts · 2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked

No call

G N. James16.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.9 ast Score 99

F T. Rainwater TR9.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 48

MARQSmall

G A. Stevens7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 65

F C. Johnson2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 2

MARQBig

F R. Parham12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 87

MercyhurstBetterMarquette

MERC offense346th of 366 · -11.9

MARQBig

MARQ defense36th of 366 · +3.1

MERC defense272nd of 366 · -6.9

MARQBig

MARQ offense46th of 366 · +4.2

Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players

MARQBig

Backcourt+8.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

MARQBig

Frontcourt+2.5 · 1 player

Bench-0.9 · 3 players

MARQBig

Bench+2.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMERC betterMARQ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mercyhurst

Guards

J. Lemelman31 minD. Kelly21 min · TRM. Jackson7 min · TRO. Faran4 minB. Conner3 minM. Maxwell-GrimesNew

Forwards

T. Rainwater25 min · TRC. Johnson12 minC. Leman2 minD. AgbaosiNewS. KirkerNew

Marquette

Guards

C. Porter35 min · TRN. Minessale32 min · TRN. James29 minA. Stevens26 minE. JohnstonNewN. WalkerNew

Forwards

R. Parham29 minS. Fru22 min · TRD. Owens16 minC. Hamilton13 minM. Phillips8 minJ. Clark6 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MERC68.3 #310

MARQ75.2 #160

Points per possession

MERC1.04 #260

MARQ1.06 #223

Pace (possessions)

MERC65.6 #327

MARQ70.9 #79

Shooting

Effective FG%

MERC49.5 #269

MARQ50.5 #215

3-point %

MERC32.1 #276

MARQ31.7 #297

3-point attempt rate

MERC31.1 #338

MARQ42.2 #133

Free throw rate

MERC25.6 #361

MARQ32.8 #243

Possessions

Turnover rate

MERC14.3 #35

MARQ16.1 #145

Offensive rebound rate

MERC26.4 #312

MARQ29.7 #216

Assists per game

MERC14.0 #148

MARQ15.5 #63

Defense

Points allowed

MERC68.7 #43

MARQ75.8 #213

Points allowed per possession

MERC1.04 #76

MARQ1.07 #125

Opponent effective FG%

MERC50.1 #107

MARQ50.6 #131

Opponent 3-point %

MERC32.3 #80

MARQ32.7 #104

Turnovers forced

MERC18.6 #68

MARQ19.3 #39

Defensive rebound rate

MERC70.1 #153

MARQ65.3 #331

Steals per game

MERC7.0 #130

MARQ9.3 #5

Blocks per game

MERC3.8 #94

MARQ3.1 #207

MERC		MARQ
Scoring
68.3 #310	Points per game	75.2 #160
1.04 #260	Points per possession	1.06 #223
65.6 #327	Pace (possessions)	70.9 #79
Shooting
49.5 #269	Effective FG%	50.5 #215
32.1 #276	3-point %	31.7 #297
31.1 #338	3-point attempt rate	42.2 #133
25.6 #361	Free throw rate	32.8 #243
Possessions
14.3 #35	Turnover rate	16.1 #145
26.4 #312	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #216
14.0 #148	Assists per game	15.5 #63
Defense
68.7 #43	Points allowed	75.8 #213
1.04 #76	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #125
50.1 #107	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #131
32.3 #80	Opponent 3-point %	32.7 #104
18.6 #68	Turnovers forced	19.3 #39
70.1 #153	Defensive rebound rate	65.3 #331
7.0 #130	Steals per game	9.3 #5
3.8 #94	Blocks per game	3.1 #207

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercyhurst

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Long Island70–79
Wvs Stonehill56–51
Wvs FDU70–61
W@ Stonehill75–72
L@ C Connecticut78–80

A week or more of rest.

Marquette

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Xavier87–89
Wvs UConn68–62
W@ Providence78–56
Lvs DePaul51–62
W@ Georgetown76–60

A week or more of rest.