Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St
Line
MSST -17.5moved 1 toward TNTC
Total157.5no move
| This season | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MSST 89–66 · win probability MSST 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MSST -17.5
moved 1 toward TNTC
Total
157.5
model 154.8 · Under by 2.5
Model edge
MSST by 5
model vs market
Public on the spread
97% TNTC
76% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MSST has more of the edges
TNTC 1, MSST 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
TNTC has played the 353rd-hardest schedule, MSST the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MSST offense vs TNTC defense
Offense 34th of 366 against a defense 288th, on the model’s ratings
TNTC offense vs MSST defense
Offense 276th of 366 against a defense 88th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: TNTC plays 68.3 a game (214th fastest), MSST 72.3 (29th). Faster games mean more points
Three-pointers
TNTC hits 31.1% and allows 35.8%; MSST hits 32.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 36.5% and 40.1% of their shots
Shooting
Effective FG%: TNTC 48.9 and allows 51.5; MSST 51.5 and allows 50.9
Free throws
Free throw rate: TNTC 35.5, MSST 30.6. Allowed: TNTC 31.3, MSST 32.3
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TNTC 19.1%, MSST 16.0%. Forced: TNTC 15.0%, MSST 12.8%
Home court
MSST at home. This season: MSST 0-0 at home, TNTC 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TNTC 31.3%, MSST 29.8%. Defensive: TNTC 69.3%, MSST 69.3%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TNTC 18%, MSST 23%. Transfers in: TNTC 6, MSST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 15 to 19.5 | 993 | 94% | 48% | 52% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 632 | 93% | 49% | 53% |
| Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog | 4513 | 74% | 51% | 50% |
| Games with a total of 155 to 159.5 | 1555 | 74% | 51% | 49% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenMSST -18.5
1 → TNTC
NowMSST -17.5
1 pt toward TNTC
Total
Open157.5
no move
Now157.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
TNTC +1300 · MSST -2800
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened MSST -18.5 · now MSST -17.5 · moved 1 toward TNTCmodel MSST -22.5
model MSST -22.5
Opened 157.5 · unchangedmodel 155
model 155
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Bets
Money
Money is 21 pts ahead of bets on MSST -17.5
Over 157.5TotalUnder 157.5
Bets
Money
Bets
Money
Books
8 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNTC | MSST | Over | Under | TNTC | MSST | |
| BetMGMMGM | -18.5-118 | +18.5-102 | 157.5-105 | 157.5-115 | +1100 | -2500 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -17.5-105 | +17.5-115 | 157.5-110 | 157.5-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -18.5-113 | +18.5-113 | 157.5-110 | 157.5-115 | +1300 | -10000 |
| BetUSBetUS | -17.5-105 | +17.5-115 | 157.5-110 | 157.5-110 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -17.5-105 | +17.5-115 | 157-110 | 157-110 | +1000 | -2500 |
| DraftKingsDK | -17.5-105 | +17.5-115 | 157.5-105 | 157.5-115 | +1300 | -2800 |
| FanDuelFD | -18.5-115 | +18.5-105 | 157.5-110 | 157.5-110 | +1400 | -4000 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -17.5-101 | +17.5-111 | 157.5-108 | 157.5-108 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSST -17.5 | MSST -22.3 | MSST +4.8 |
| Total | 157.5 | 154.8 | Under 2.7 |
| Projected score | — | TNTC 66.2 · MSST 88.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MSST -13.1 | — |
| 1H total | 72.3 | — |
| 1H projected score | TNTC 29.6 · MSST 42.7 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | |
| 2-8 20% | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee Tech
28 games played
Straight up
10-18
36% wins
Against the spread
14-14
50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-14
50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ | L 70-82 | +14.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 7 | @ | L 65-70 | +12.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 17 | vs | L 59-61 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 19 | @ | W 88-84 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 150.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 26 | @ | L 54-104 | +37.5 | L −12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 29 | @ | L 81-123 | +34.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | O 204 |
| Dec 3 | @ | L 80-83 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 6 | @ | W 87-59 | +1.5 | W +29.5 | 150.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 18 | vs | W 85-74 | +2.5 | W +13.5 | 155.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | vs | L 62-86 | +2.5 | L −21.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 30 | vs | L 76-88 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 1 | @ | L 58-77 | +1.5 | L −17.5 | 144.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 8 | @ | L 61-71 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 140.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 10 | @ | W 59-54 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | U 113 |
| Jan 15 | vs | L 54-71 | -5.5 | L −22.5 | 142.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 17 | vs | L 70-76 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 141.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 22 | @ | L 68-89 | +8.5 | L −12.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 24 | @ | L 58-62 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 31 | vs | W 87-77 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 141.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 2 | @ | W 90-85 | +7.5 | W +12.5 | 153.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 5 | vs | W 97-72 | -9.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 7 | vs | L 54-60 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | U 114 |
| Feb 12 | @ | L 66-73 | +4.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 14 | @ | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 19 | vs | W 62-52 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 134.5 | U 114 |
| Feb 21 | vs | W 72-57 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 151.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 26 | @ | L 49-64 | +7.5 | L −7.5 | 134.5 | U 113 |
| Feb 28 | @ | L 73-89 | +7.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
WKU
L 70-82
+2.5
7
@
CLT
L 65-70
+7.5
17
vs
WGA
L 59-61
−6.5
19
@
UPST
W 88-84
+6.5
26
@
UK
L 54-104
−12.5
29
@
UGA
L 81-123
−7.5
3
@
LIP
L 80-83
+7.5
6
@
WGA
W 87-59
+29.5
18
vs
SEMO
W 85-74
+13.5
20
vs
UTM
L 62-86
−21.5
30
vs
TNST
L 76-88
−10.5
1
@
LR
L 58-77
−17.5
8
@
EIU
L 61-71
−11.5
10
@
WIU
W 59-54
+1.5
15
vs
USI
L 54-71
−22.5
17
vs
MORE
L 70-76
−7.5
22
@
LIN
L 68-89
−12.5
24
@
SIUE
L 58-62
+3.5
31
vs
LR
W 87-77
+11.5
2
@
TNST
W 90-85
+12.5
5
vs
WIU
W 97-72
+15.5
7
vs
EIU
L 54-60
−10.5
12
@
MORE
L 66-73
−2.5
14
@
USI
W 82-74
+6.5
19
vs
SIUE
W 62-52
+11.5
21
vs
LIN
W 72-57
+16.5
26
@
UTM
L 49-64
−7.5
28
@
SEMO
L 73-89
−8.5
covered 14didn’t cover 14avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@
WKU
L 70-82
−1.5
7
@
CLT
L 65-70
−11.5
17
vs
WGA
L 59-61
−32.5
19
@
UPST
W 88-84
+21.5
26
@
UK
L 54-104
+0.5
29
@
UGA
L 81-123
+43.5
3
@
LIP
L 80-83
+10.5
6
@
WGA
W 87-59
−4.5
18
vs
SEMO
W 85-74
+3.5
20
vs
UTM
L 62-86
+2.5
30
vs
TNST
L 76-88
+8.5
1
@
LR
L 58-77
−9.5
8
@
EIU
L 61-71
−8.5
10
@
WIU
W 59-54
−30.5
15
vs
USI
L 54-71
−17.5
17
vs
MORE
L 70-76
+4.5
22
@
LIN
L 68-89
+5.5
24
@
SIUE
L 58-62
−15.5
31
vs
LR
W 87-77
+22.5
2
@
TNST
W 90-85
+21.5
5
vs
WIU
W 97-72
+25.5
7
vs
EIU
L 54-60
−26.5
12
@
MORE
L 66-73
−4.5
14
@
USI
W 82-74
+15.5
19
vs
SIUE
W 62-52
−20.5
21
vs
LIN
W 72-57
−22.5
26
@
UTM
L 49-64
−21.5
28
@
SEMO
L 73-89
+20.5
over 14under 14avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mississippi St
32 games played
Straight up
13-19
41% wins
Against the spread
10-22
31% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-16
50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @ | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vs | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs | L 82-97 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | vs | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @ | L 68-88 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 24 | vs | L 56-88 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @ | W 80-66 | +7.5 | W +21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @ | L 79-84 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | vs | L 68-88 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 11 | vs | L 64-73 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 14 | @ | W 90-78 | +3.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 18 | vs | W 91-85 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 21 | @ | L 89-97 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 186 |
| Feb 25 | @ | L 75-100 | +12.5 | L −12.5 | 176.5 | U 175 |
| Feb 28 | vs | L 64-88 | +1.5 | L −22.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Mar 3 | @ | L 74-108 | +20.5 | L −13.5 | 161.5 | O 182 |
| Mar 7 | vs | L 96-102 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 167.5 | O 198 |
| Mar 11 | vs | L 61-79 | +8.5 | L −9.5 | 160.5 | U 140 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vs
UNA
W 86-62
−0.5
10
vs
ISU
L 80-96
−10.5
15
vs
SELA
W 75-68
−20.5
20
vs
KSU
L 77-98
−23.5
21
vs
UNM
L 78-80
−8.5
24
vs
NOLA
W 81-78
−20.5
28
vs
SMU
L 81-87
−7.5
3
@
GT
W 85-73
+10.5
7
vs
SF
L 62-65
−7.5
13
vs
UTAH
W 82-74
+6.5
16
vs
LIU
W 87-83
−12.5
20
vs
MEM
W 71-66
+1.5
29
vs
ALST
W 94-56
+20.5
3
@
TEX
W 101-98
+12.5
7
vs
OU
W 72-53
+17.5
10
@
UK
L 68-92
−13.5
13
vs
ALA
L 82-97
−10.5
17
vs
MISS
L 67-68
−4.5
21
@
TA&M
L 68-88
−11.5
24
vs
VAN
L 56-88
−24.5
28
@
LSU
W 80-66
+21.5
31
@
MIZ
L 79-84
+1.5
7
vs
ARK
L 68-88
−14.5
11
vs
TENN
L 64-73
−0.5
14
@
MISS
W 90-78
+15.5
18
vs
AUB
W 91-85
+11.5
21
@
SC
L 89-97
−9.5
25
@
ALA
L 75-100
−12.5
28
vs
MIZ
L 64-88
−22.5
3
@
FLA
L 74-108
−13.5
7
vs
UGA
L 96-102
−0.5
11
vs
AUB
L 61-79
−9.5
covered 10didn’t cover 22avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vs
UNA
W 86-62
−3.5
10
vs
ISU
L 80-96
+25.5
15
vs
SELA
W 75-68
−7.5
20
vs
KSU
L 77-98
+10.5
21
vs
UNM
L 78-80
+6.5
24
vs
NOLA
W 81-78
−1.5
28
vs
SMU
L 81-87
+5.5
3
@
GT
W 85-73
+7.5
7
vs
SF
L 62-65
−23.5
13
vs
UTAH
W 82-74
+2.5
16
vs
LIU
W 87-83
+17.5
20
vs
MEM
W 71-66
−16.5
29
vs
ALST
W 94-56
−4.5
3
@
TEX
W 101-98
+41.5
7
vs
OU
W 72-53
−33.5
10
@
UK
L 68-92
+7.5
13
vs
ALA
L 82-97
+7.5
17
vs
MISS
L 67-68
−12.5
21
@
TA&M
L 68-88
−7.5
24
vs
VAN
L 56-88
−15.5
28
@
LSU
W 80-66
−8.5
31
@
MIZ
L 79-84
+16.5
7
vs
ARK
L 68-88
−7.5
11
vs
TENN
L 64-73
−10.5
14
@
MISS
W 90-78
+21.5
18
vs
AUB
W 91-85
+20.5
21
@
SC
L 89-97
+34.5
25
@
ALA
L 75-100
−1.5
28
vs
MIZ
L 64-88
−2.5
3
@
FLA
L 74-108
+20.5
7
vs
UGA
L 96-102
+30.5
11
vs
AUB
L 61-79
−20.5
over 16under 16avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mississippi St has the better starters
Position by position: Tennessee Tech 1, Mississippi St 3, even 1
Tennessee TechBetterMississippi St
G T. Mosquera TR13.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 55
→MSSTBig
G J. Hubbard22.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 99
G T. Owens7.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 17
→MSSTBig
G R. Johnson TR14.8 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast
Score 86
G D. Hackett TR13.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 78
=Even
G T. Simpkins TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 83
G C. Newton TR10.5 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 55
←TNTCSmall
F K. Sanders TR5.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 31
G C. Hollenbeck TR5 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 6
→MSSTBig
C N. Okafor TR11.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 71
Tennessee TechBetterMississippi St
TNTC offense276th of 366 · -8.4
→MSSTBig
MSST defense88th of 366 · -0.1
TNTC defense288th of 366 · -7.2
→MSSTBig
MSST offense34th of 366 · +5.5
Backcourt-4.8 · 5 players
→MSSTBig
Backcourt+9.6 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
=No call
Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 3 players
=Even
Bench-2.0 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestTNTC betterMSST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
T. Mosquera32 min · TRT. Owens28 minD. Hackett28 min · TRC. Newton26 min · TRC. Hollenbeck17 min · TRC. GonzalesNew
Forwards
D. Christensen13 min · TRM. Turner8 minC. Sanders8 min · TRD. GreenNewS. ArnoldNewK. FoxNew
Guards
J. Hubbard33 minR. Johnson29 min · TRT. Simpkins25 min · TRK. Grace12 minA. Magee11 min · TRC. PaulNew
Forwards
K. Sanders20 min · TRT. Bassong19 min · TRT. ReedNew
Centers
N. Okafor23 min · TRG. CholNewT. BartlettNewT. ReedNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 70.3 #280 | Points per game | 77.6 #103 |
| 1.03 #287 | Points per possession | 1.07 #205 |
| 68.3 #214 | Pace (possessions) | 72.3 #29 |
| Shooting | ||
| 48.9 #293 | Effective FG% | 51.5 #172 |
| 31.1 #316 | 3-point % | 32.4 #262 |
| 36.5 #238 | 3-point attempt rate | 40.1 #169 |
| 35.5 #164 | Free throw rate | 30.6 #288 |
| Possessions | ||
| 19.1 #325 | Turnover rate | 16.0 #143 |
| 31.3 #151 | Offensive rebound rate | 29.8 #210 |
| 11.0 #337 | Assists per game | 12.8 #231 |
| Defense | ||
| 75.6 #207 | Points allowed | 81.8 #338 |
| 1.11 #231 | Points allowed per possession | 1.13 #299 |
| 51.5 #186 | Opponent effective FG% | 50.9 #154 |
| 35.8 #295 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.9 #179 |
| 15.0 #285 | Turnovers forced | 12.8 #358 |
| 69.3 #192 | Defensive rebound rate | 69.3 #190 |
| 5.4 #312 | Steals per game | 5.8 #260 |
| 2.7 #275 | Blocks per game | 4.4 #44 |
Tennessee Tech
10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ SE Missouri73–89
- L@ UT Martin49–64
- Wvs Lindenwood Lions72–57
- Wvs SIUE62–52
- W@ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles82–74
A week or more of rest.
Mississippi St
13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Auburn61–79
- Lvs Georgia96–102
- L@ Florida74–108
- Lvs Missouri64–88
- L@ Alabama75–100
A week or more of rest.