Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St
#282TNTCTennessee Tech
@
#53MSSTMississippi St
LineMSST -17.5moved 1 toward TNTC
Total157.5no move
Season records: Tennessee Tech and Mississippi St
TNTCThis seasonMSST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSST 89–66 · win probability MSST 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MSST -17.5
moved 1 toward TNTC
Total
157.5
model 154.8 · Under by 2.5
Model edge
MSST by 5
model vs market
Public on the spread
97% TNTC
76% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSST has more of the edges

TNTC 1, MSST 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
TNTC has played the 353rd-hardest schedule, MSST the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MSSTBig
MSST offense vs TNTC defense
Offense 34th of 366 against a defense 288th, on the model’s ratings
MSSTBig
TNTC offense vs MSST defense
Offense 276th of 366 against a defense 88th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: TNTC plays 68.3 a game (214th fastest), MSST 72.3 (29th). Faster games mean more points
MSSTSmall
Three-pointers
TNTC hits 31.1% and allows 35.8%; MSST hits 32.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 36.5% and 40.1% of their shots
MSSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: TNTC 48.9 and allows 51.5; MSST 51.5 and allows 50.9
TNTCSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: TNTC 35.5, MSST 30.6. Allowed: TNTC 31.3, MSST 32.3
MSSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TNTC 19.1%, MSST 16.0%. Forced: TNTC 15.0%, MSST 12.8%
MSSTSmall
Home court
MSST at home. This season: MSST 0-0 at home, TNTC 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TNTC 31.3%, MSST 29.8%. Defensive: TNTC 69.3%, MSST 69.3%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TNTC 18%, MSST 23%. Transfers in: TNTC 6, MSST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 15 to 19.599394%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread63293%49%53%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward TNTC
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
TNTC +1300 · MSST -2800
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened MSST -18.5 · now MSST -17.5 · moved 1 toward TNTCmodel MSST -22.5
Opened 157.5 · unchangedmodel 155
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
TNTC +17.5SpreadMSST -17.5
Bets
Money
Money is 21 pts ahead of bets on MSST -17.5
Over 157.5TotalUnder 157.5
Bets
Money
TNTCWinnerMSST
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
TNTCMSSTOverUnderTNTCMSST
BetMGMMGM-18.5-118+18.5-102157.5-105157.5-115+1100-2500
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-17.5-105+17.5-115157.5-110157.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-18.5-113+18.5-113157.5-110157.5-115+1300-10000
BetUSBetUS-17.5-105+17.5-115157.5-110157.5-110——
BovadaBovada-17.5-105+17.5-115157-110157-110+1000-2500
DraftKingsDK-17.5-105+17.5-115157.5-105157.5-115+1300-2800
FanDuelFD-18.5-115+18.5-105157.5-110157.5-110+1400-4000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-17.5-101+17.5-111157.5-108157.5-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadMSST -17.5MSST -22.3MSST +4.8
Total157.5154.8Under 2.7
Projected score—TNTC 66.2 · MSST 88.5

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadMSST -13.1—
1H total72.3—
1H projected scoreTNTC 29.6 · MSST 42.7—

Mississippi St has the better starters

Position by position: Tennessee Tech 1, Mississippi St 3, even 1
Tennessee TechBetterMississippi St
G T. Mosquera TR13.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55
MSSTBig
G J. Hubbard22.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 99
G T. Owens7.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17
MSSTBig
G R. Johnson TR14.8 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 86
G D. Hackett TR13.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 78
Even
G T. Simpkins TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83
G C. Newton TR10.5 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 55
TNTCSmall
F K. Sanders TR5.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31
G C. Hollenbeck TR5 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 6
MSSTBig
C N. Okafor TR11.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 71
Tennessee TechBetterMississippi St
TNTC offense276th of 366 · -8.4
MSSTBig
MSST defense88th of 366 · -0.1
TNTC defense288th of 366 · -7.2
MSSTBig
MSST offense34th of 366 · +5.5
Backcourt-4.8 · 5 players
MSSTBig
Backcourt+9.6 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 3 players
Even
Bench-2.0 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestTNTC betterMSST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Tennessee Tech
Guards
T. Mosquera32 min · TRT. Owens28 minD. Hackett28 min · TRC. Newton26 min · TRC. Hollenbeck17 min · TRC. GonzalesNew
Forwards
D. Christensen13 min · TRM. Turner8 minC. Sanders8 min · TRD. GreenNewS. ArnoldNewK. FoxNew
Mississippi St
Guards
J. Hubbard33 minR. Johnson29 min · TRT. Simpkins25 min · TRK. Grace12 minA. Magee11 min · TRC. PaulNew
Forwards
K. Sanders20 min · TRT. Bassong19 min · TRT. ReedNew
Centers
N. Okafor23 min · TRG. CholNewT. BartlettNewT. ReedNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TNTCMSST
Scoring
70.3 #280Points per game77.6 #103
1.03 #287Points per possession1.07 #205
68.3 #214Pace (possessions)72.3 #29
Shooting
48.9 #293Effective FG%51.5 #172
31.1 #3163-point %32.4 #262
36.5 #2383-point attempt rate40.1 #169
35.5 #164Free throw rate30.6 #288
Possessions
19.1 #325Turnover rate16.0 #143
31.3 #151Offensive rebound rate29.8 #210
11.0 #337Assists per game12.8 #231
Defense
75.6 #207Points allowed81.8 #338
1.11 #231Points allowed per possession1.13 #299
51.5 #186Opponent effective FG%50.9 #154
35.8 #295Opponent 3-point %33.9 #179
15.0 #285Turnovers forced12.8 #358
69.3 #192Defensive rebound rate69.3 #190
5.4 #312Steals per game5.8 #260
2.7 #275Blocks per game4.4 #44

Tennessee Tech

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ SE Missouri73–89
  • L@ UT Martin49–64
  • Wvs Lindenwood Lions72–57
  • Wvs SIUE62–52
  • W@ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles82–74

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi St

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Auburn61–79
  • Lvs Georgia96–102
  • L@ Florida74–108
  • Lvs Missouri64–88
  • L@ Alabama75–100

A week or more of rest.