Northwestern State Demons at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 7:30 PM ETHumphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N'Western St and Mississippi St
NWST	This season	MSST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSST 87–63 · win probability MSST 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSST has more of the edges

NWST 1, MSST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

NWST has played the 292nd-hardest schedule, MSST the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MSSTBig

NWST offense vs MSST defense

Offense 340th of 366 against a defense 88th, on the model’s ratings

MSSTBig

MSST offense vs NWST defense

Offense 34th of 366 against a defense 236th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NWST plays 65.4 a game (334th fastest), MSST 72.3 (29th). Faster games mean more points

MSSTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NWST 48.6 and allows 53.0; MSST 51.5 and allows 50.9

MSSTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NWST 26.1%, MSST 29.8%. Defensive: NWST 67.4%, MSST 69.3%

NWSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NWST 40.1, MSST 30.6. Allowed: NWST 36.3, MSST 32.3

MSSTSmall

Home court

MSST at home. This season: MSST 0-0 at home, NWST 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

NWST hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%; MSST hits 32.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 33.9% and 40.1% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NWST 18.3%, MSST 16.0%. Forced: NWST 16.9%, MSST 12.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NWST 28%, MSST 23%. Transfers in: NWST 2, MSST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSST -24.2	—
Total	—	149.6	—
Projected score	—	NWST 62.7 · MSST 86.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSST -14.3	—
1H total	69.9	—
1H projected score	NWST 27.8 · MSST 42.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NWST WWLLL	17-13	57%	9-8	—
MSST LLLLL	10-22	31%	4-12	—

Venue/role: NWST away; MSST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NWST UUUUU	15-15	50%	8-22
MSST UUOOU	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NWST	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
MSST	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N'Western St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ MUR	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ LR	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs UTA	No recent meeting

Mississippi St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs JKST	W69–59LU
Nov 13	vs XAV	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ UCF	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N'Western St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L L L L L L W W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1357%

L L W L W W L W W L L W W W W W W W L L L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U O O O O O O O U U U O O U O O U U U U U O O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TA&M	L 68-98	+21.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 166
Nov 6	@UNT	L 53-80	+11.5	L −15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 11	@UNA	L 83-87	+6.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 170
Nov 18	@SF	L 64-84	+16.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 21	@GCU	L 72-85	+18.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 157
Nov 29	vsSOU	L 73-75	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 5	@MCN	L 54-92	+19.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 146
Dec 7	@SELA	W 76-68	+7.5	W +15.5	133.5	O 144
Dec 13	@CAL	L 70-79	+19.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 149
Dec 29	vsLAM	L 61-76	+3.5	L −11.5	138.5	U 137
Dec 31	vsSFA	L 64-74	+8.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 138
Jan 3	vsNOLA	W 74-68	+1.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 5	@NICH	L 72-74	+8.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 10	vsAMCC	W 79-78	+5.5	W +6.5	138.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsRGV	W 64-63	+2.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 127
Jan 17	@UIW	L 74-76	+8.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 19	@HCU	L 80-82	+2.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 162
Jan 27	@SFA	L 67-69	+14.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 31	@NOLA	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	153.5	U 139
Feb 2	vsNICH	L 58-61	+1.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 119
Feb 4	vsETAM	L 68-74	-3.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 142
Feb 7	@ETAM	L 48-52	+1.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 100
Feb 9	@LAM	W 70-68	+6.5	W +8.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 14	vsSELA	W 69-66	-1.5	W +1.5	131.5	O 135
Feb 16	vsMCN	L 64-75	+14.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 139
Feb 21	vsHCU	W 71-53	-2.5	W +15.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 23	vsUIW	W 54-49	-1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 103
Feb 28	@AMCC	L 59-71	+5.5	L −6.5	134.5	U 130
Mar 2	@RGV	L 62-74	+9.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 136
Mar 8	vsNICH	L 47-61	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	U 108

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

−8.5

UNT

L 53-80

−15.5

UNA

L 83-87

+2.5

L 64-84

−3.5

GCU

L 72-85

+5.5

SOU

L 73-75

+1.5

MCN

L 54-92

−18.5

SELA

W 76-68

+15.5

CAL

L 70-79

+10.5

LAM

L 61-76

−11.5

SFA

L 64-74

−1.5

NOLA

W 74-68

+7.5

NICH

L 72-74

+6.5

AMCC

W 79-78

+6.5

RGV

W 64-63

+3.5

UIW

L 74-76

+6.5

HCU

L 80-82

+0.5

SFA

L 67-69

+12.5

NOLA

L 64-75

−6.5

NICH

L 58-61

−1.5

ETAM

L 68-74

−9.5

ETAM

L 48-52

−2.5

LAM

W 70-68

+8.5

SELA

W 69-66

+1.5

MCN

L 64-75

+3.5

HCU

W 71-53

+15.5

UIW

W 54-49

+3.5

AMCC

L 59-71

−6.5

RGV

L 62-74

−2.5

NICH

L 47-61

−12.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

+12.5

UNT

L 53-80

−4.5

UNA

L 83-87

+27.5

L 64-84

+4.5

GCU

L 72-85

+9.5

SOU

L 73-75

+3.5

MCN

L 54-92

+6.5

SELA

W 76-68

+10.5

CAL

L 70-79

+3.5

LAM

L 61-76

−1.5

SFA

L 64-74

−0.5

NOLA

W 74-68

−7.5

NICH

L 72-74

+1.5

AMCC

W 79-78

+18.5

RGV

W 64-63

−16.5

UIW

L 74-76

+8.5

HCU

L 80-82

+22.5

SFA

L 67-69

−5.5

NOLA

L 64-75

−14.5

NICH

L 58-61

−28.5

ETAM

L 68-74

−1.5

ETAM

L 48-52

−40.5

LAM

W 70-68

+2.5

SELA

W 69-66

+3.5

MCN

L 64-75

+0.5

HCU

W 71-53

−10.5

UIW

W 54-49

−35.5

AMCC

L 59-71

−4.5

RGV

L 62-74

−3.5

NICH

L 47-61

−30.5

over 15under 15avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mississippi St

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

10-22

31% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W L W L L W L W L W W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-2231%

L L L L L L L W L W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

U O U O O U O O U O O U U O U O O U U U U O U U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUNA	W 86-62	-24.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 10	vsISU	L 80-96	+5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 15	vsSELA	W 75-68	-27.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsKSU	L 77-98	-2.5	L −23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 24	vsNOLA	W 81-78	-23.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 159
Nov 28	vsSMU	L 81-87	-1.5	L −7.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 3	@GT	W 85-73	-1.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 7	vsSF	L 62-65	-4.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	vsUTAH	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 16	vsLIU	W 87-83	-16.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsMEM	W 71-66	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 29	vsALST	W 94-56	-17.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@TEX	W 101-98	+9.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 199
Jan 7	vsOU	W 72-53	-1.5	W +17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@UK	L 68-92	+10.5	L −13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsALA	L 82-97	+4.5	L −10.5	171.5	O 179
Jan 17	vsMISS	L 67-68	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 135
Jan 21	@TA&M	L 68-88	+8.5	L −11.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	vsVAN	L 56-88	+7.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 144
Jan 28	@LSU	W 80-66	+7.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@MIZ	L 79-84	+6.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 163
Feb 7	vsARK	L 68-88	+5.5	L −14.5	163.5	U 156
Feb 11	vsTENN	L 64-73	+8.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@MISS	W 90-78	+3.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 168
Feb 18	vsAUB	W 91-85	+5.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 176
Feb 21	@SC	L 89-97	-1.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 25	@ALA	L 75-100	+12.5	L −12.5	176.5	U 175
Feb 28	vsMIZ	L 64-88	+1.5	L −22.5	154.5	U 152
Mar 3	@FLA	L 74-108	+20.5	L −13.5	161.5	O 182
Mar 7	vsUGA	L 96-102	+5.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 198
Mar 11	vsAUB	L 61-79	+8.5	L −9.5	160.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−0.5

ISU

L 80-96

−10.5

SELA

W 75-68

−20.5

KSU

L 77-98

−23.5

UNM

L 78-80

−8.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−20.5

SMU

L 81-87

−7.5

W 85-73

+10.5

L 62-65

−7.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+6.5

LIU

W 87-83

−12.5

MEM

W 71-66

+1.5

ALST

W 94-56

+20.5

TEX

W 101-98

+12.5

W 72-53

+17.5

L 68-92

−13.5

ALA

L 82-97

−10.5

MISS

L 67-68

−4.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−11.5

VAN

L 56-88

−24.5

LSU

W 80-66

+21.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+1.5

ARK

L 68-88

−14.5

TENN

L 64-73

−0.5

MISS

W 90-78

+15.5

AUB

W 91-85

+11.5

L 89-97

−9.5

ALA

L 75-100

−12.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−22.5

FLA

L 74-108

−13.5

UGA

L 96-102

−0.5

AUB

L 61-79

−9.5

covered 10didn’t cover 22avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−3.5

ISU

L 80-96

+25.5

SELA

W 75-68

−7.5

KSU

L 77-98

+10.5

UNM

L 78-80

+6.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−1.5

SMU

L 81-87

+5.5

W 85-73

+7.5

L 62-65

−23.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+2.5

LIU

W 87-83

+17.5

MEM

W 71-66

−16.5

ALST

W 94-56

−4.5

TEX

W 101-98

+41.5

W 72-53

−33.5

L 68-92

+7.5

ALA

L 82-97

+7.5

MISS

L 67-68

−12.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−7.5

VAN

L 56-88

−15.5

LSU

W 80-66

−8.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+16.5

ARK

L 68-88

−7.5

TENN

L 64-73

−10.5

MISS

W 90-78

+21.5

AUB

W 91-85

+20.5

L 89-97

+34.5

ALA

L 75-100

−1.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−2.5

FLA

L 74-108

+20.5

UGA

L 96-102

+30.5

AUB

L 61-79

−20.5

over 16under 16avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mississippi St has the better starters

Position by position: N'Western St 0, Mississippi St 4, even 1

N'Western StBetterMississippi St

G I. Miles10.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 57

MSSTBig

G J. Hubbard22.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 99

G C. Larry2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 1

MSSTBig

G R. Johnson TR14.8 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 86

F D. Thomas TR5.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

MSSTBig

G T. Simpkins TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83

F A. Osojnik TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22

Even

F K. Sanders TR5.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

F K. Turner3.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 34

MSSTBig

C N. Okafor TR11.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 71

N'Western StBetterMississippi St

NWST offense340th of 366 · -11.5

MSSTBig

MSST defense88th of 366 · -0.1

NWST defense236th of 366 · -6.2

MSSTBig

MSST offense34th of 366 · +5.5

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

MSSTBig

Backcourt+9.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-3.2 · 3 players

MSSTBig

Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-2.0 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestNWST betterMSST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N'Western St

Guards

I. Miles25 minC. Larry18 minK. SimpsonNewD. BrownNewA. AlmuttarNewB. RemoNew

Forwards

D. Thomas18 min · TRA. Osojnik16 min · TRK. Turner13 minN. OjukwuNewC. KellyNewJ. NesbittNew

Mississippi St

Guards

J. Hubbard33 minR. Johnson29 min · TRT. Simpkins25 min · TRK. Grace12 minA. Magee11 min · TRC. PaulNew

Forwards

K. Sanders20 min · TRT. Bassong19 min · TRT. ReedNew

Centers

N. Okafor23 min · TRG. CholNewT. BartlettNewT. ReedNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NWST66.1 #346

MSST77.6 #103

Points per possession

NWST1.01 #315

MSST1.07 #205

Pace (possessions)

NWST65.4 #334

MSST72.3 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

NWST48.6 #301

MSST51.5 #172

3-point %

NWST33.2 #218

MSST32.4 #262

3-point attempt rate

NWST33.9 #298

MSST40.1 #169

Free throw rate

NWST40.1 #58

MSST30.6 #288

Possessions

Turnover rate

NWST18.3 #286

MSST16.0 #143

Offensive rebound rate

NWST26.1 #321

MSST29.8 #210

Assists per game

NWST11.3 #322

MSST12.8 #231

Defense

Points allowed

NWST72.9 #129

MSST81.8 #338

Points allowed per possession

NWST1.12 #262

MSST1.13 #299

Opponent effective FG%

NWST53.0 #270

MSST50.9 #154

Opponent 3-point %

NWST35.5 #278

MSST33.9 #179

Turnovers forced

NWST16.9 #160

MSST12.8 #358

Defensive rebound rate

NWST67.4 #286

MSST69.3 #190

Steals per game

NWST6.2 #215

MSST5.8 #260

Blocks per game

NWST2.3 #321

MSST4.4 #44

NWST		MSST
Scoring
66.1 #346	Points per game	77.6 #103
1.01 #315	Points per possession	1.07 #205
65.4 #334	Pace (possessions)	72.3 #29
Shooting
48.6 #301	Effective FG%	51.5 #172
33.2 #218	3-point %	32.4 #262
33.9 #298	3-point attempt rate	40.1 #169
40.1 #58	Free throw rate	30.6 #288
Possessions
18.3 #286	Turnover rate	16.0 #143
26.1 #321	Offensive rebound rate	29.8 #210
11.3 #322	Assists per game	12.8 #231
Defense
72.9 #129	Points allowed	81.8 #338
1.12 #262	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #299
53.0 #270	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #154
35.5 #278	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #179
16.9 #160	Turnovers forced	12.8 #358
67.4 #286	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #190
6.2 #215	Steals per game	5.8 #260
2.3 #321	Blocks per game	4.4 #44

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N'Western St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nicholls47–61
L@ UT Rio Grande62–74
L@ Texas A&M-CC59–71
Wvs Incarnate Word54–49
Wvs Hou Christian71–53

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi St

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn61–79
Lvs Georgia96–102
L@ Florida74–108
Lvs Missouri64–88
L@ Alabama75–100

A week or more of rest.

Northwestern State Demons at Mississippi State Bulldogs

What could decide it: MSST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N'Western St

Mississippi St

Mississippi St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N'Western St

Mississippi St