1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. NCCU @ UGA
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

North Carolina Central Eagles at Georgia Bulldogs

Stegeman Coliseum · at Georgia
#357NCCUNC Central
@
#34UGAGeorgia
LineUGA -37.5moved 2 toward UGA
Total160.5up 3 from 157.5
NCCUThis seasonUGA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UGA 97–60 · win probability UGA 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
UGA -37.5
moved 2 toward UGA
Total
160.5
model 157.3 · Under by 3
Model edge
NCCU by 1
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UGA has more of the edges

NCCU 0, UGA 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UGABig
UGA offense vs NCCU defense
Offense 19th of 366 against a defense 352nd, on the model’s ratings
UGABig
NCCU offense vs UGA defense
Offense 345th of 366 against a defense 75th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NCCU has played the 310th-hardest schedule, UGA the 52nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
UGABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NCCU 47.5 and allows 54.5; UGA 54.2 and allows 50.6
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: NCCU plays 66.9 a game (282nd fastest), UGA 74.7 (8th). Faster games mean more points
UGASmall
Three-pointers
NCCU hits 32.6% and allows 36.4%; UGA hits 33.8% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 33.9% and 44.3% of their shots
UGASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NCCU 18.2%, UGA 14.3%. Forced: NCCU 19.8%, UGA 18.4%
UGASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NCCU 30.0%, UGA 34.9%. Defensive: NCCU 60.6%, UGA 65.1%
UGASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NCCU 4%, UGA 46%. Transfers in: NCCU 4, UGA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UGASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NCCU 39.3, UGA 36.9. Allowed: NCCU 36.9, UGA 30.2
UGASmall
Home court
UGA at home. This season: UGA 0-0 at home, NCCU 0-0 away
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 160 to 164.578778%50%54%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
2 pts toward UGA
Total
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened UGA -35.5 · now UGA -38 · moved 2.5 toward UGAmodel UGA -36.5
Opened 157.5 · now 161 · moved 3.5 upmodel 157.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
NCCUUGAOverUnderNCCUUGA
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-38-105+38-115161-115161-105——
BetRiversBetRivers-35.5+112+35.5-143156.5-148156.5+115——
BovadaBovada-38-105+38-115161-115161-105——
DraftKingsDK-37.5-110+37.5-110160.5-110160.5-110——
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-38-101+38-111161-113161-103——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadUGA -37.5UGA -36.6NCCU +0.9
Total160.5157.3Under 3.2
Projected score—NCCU 60.4 · UGA 97

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUGA -21.6—
1H total73.5—
1H projected scoreNCCU 25.9 · UGA 47.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Georgia has the better starters

Position by position: NC Central 0, Georgia 3, even 2
NC CentralBetterGeorgia
G T. Brown TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
UGABig
G B. Cain13.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 95
G R. Archey3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G F. Dilione V TR14 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93
F C. Meeks TR5.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 6
UGABig
G M. Millender12 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 89
F T. Mason TR5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32
UGABig
F K. Catchings11.6 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
F M. Vassel TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Scott TR3.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
NC CentralBetterGeorgia
NCCU offense345th of 366 · -11.9
UGABig
UGA defense75th of 366 · +0.7
NCCU defense352nd of 366 · -9.9
UGABig
UGA offense19th of 366 · +7.8
Backcourt-2.4 · 2 players
UGABig
Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-5.2 · 3 players
UGABig
Frontcourt+2.4 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNCCU betterUGA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
NC Central
Guards
T. Brown14 min · TRR. Archey8 minD. KaneNewC. SanonNewI. BuckleyNewA. BowserNew
Forwards
C. Meeks29 min · TRT. Mason12 min · TRM. Vassel8 min · TRJ. PriceNewD. DuorNew
Centers
D. MbaetekaNew
Georgia
Guards
B. Cain28 minF. Dilione V28 min · TRM. Millender26 minB. Klatsky2 minM. Jennings1 minK. MillenderNew
Forwards
K. Catchings23 minJ. Scott18 min · TRB. Dunlap17 min · TRK. Stagg13 minA. Osasuyi12 min · TRM. KuanyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NCCUUGA
Scoring
67.6 #322Points per game89.4 #3
1.02 #308Points per possession1.19 #18
66.9 #282Pace (possessions)74.7 #8
Shooting
47.5 #328Effective FG%54.2 #61
32.6 #2473-point %33.8 #185
33.9 #2993-point attempt rate44.3 #83
39.3 #72Free throw rate36.9 #131
Possessions
18.2 #285Turnover rate14.3 #31
30.0 #201Offensive rebound rate34.9 #49
12.1 #279Assists per game14.8 #102
Defense
77.3 #246Points allowed79.8 #314
1.15 #322Points allowed per possession1.07 #135
54.5 #317Opponent effective FG%50.6 #134
36.4 #321Opponent 3-point %33.6 #165
19.8 #27Turnovers forced18.4 #82
60.6 #364Defensive rebound rate65.1 #336
7.7 #60Steals per game8.4 #21
3.4 #165Blocks per game6.0 #3
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC Central

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard63–70
  • Wvs Delaware St59–53
  • Wvs MD Eastern83–76
  • Lvs SC State64–80
  • W@ MD Eastern77–73

A week or more of rest.

Georgia

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Louis77–102
  • Lvs Ole Miss72–76
  • W@ Mississippi St102–96
  • Wvs Alabama98–88
  • Wvs South Carolina87–68

A week or more of rest.