Toledo Rockets at Arkansas State Red Wolves: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 8:00 PM ETFirst National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St

LineARST -3.5no move

Total162.5up 2 from 160.5

Season records: Toledo and Arkansas St
TOL	This season	ARST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARST 80–79 · win probability ARST 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

ARST -3.5

no move since the open

Total

162.5

model 158.3 · Under by 4

Model edge

TOL by 2.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

87% TOL

88% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOL has more of the edges

TOL 4, ARST 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ARSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOL 29.5%, ARST 38.2%. Defensive: TOL 66.3%, ARST 73.0%

TOLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOL 14.7%, ARST 19.8%. Forced: TOL 17.9%, ARST 14.9%

TOLBig

TOL offense vs ARST defense

Offense 121st of 366 against a defense 252nd, on the model’s ratings

ARSTBig

ARST offense vs TOL defense

Offense 122nd of 366 against a defense 234th, on the model’s ratings

TOLSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOL 43%, ARST 6%. Transfers in: TOL 2, ARST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: TOL plays 69.5 a game (146th fastest), ARST 73.4 (16th). Faster games mean more points

TOLSmall

Three-pointers

TOL hits 37.0% and allows 34.4%; ARST hits 32.9% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 32.5% and 44.9% of their shots

ARSTSmall

Home court

ARST at home. This season: ARST 0-0 at home, TOL 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

TOL has played the 172nd-hardest schedule, ARST the 221st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOL 54.5 and allows 54.3; ARST 51.7 and allows 50.3

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOL 30.5, ARST 39.1. Allowed: TOL 26.6, ARST 37.0

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5	3171	66%	50%	50%
Non-conference games at this spread	1736	67%	50%	49%
Games with a total of 160 to 164.5	787	78%	50%	54%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenARST -3.5

no move

NowARST -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open160.5

▲ 2

Now162.5

Up 2 since the open

Moneyline

TOL +143 · ARST -175

Line movement

Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened ARST -3.5 · unchangedmodel ARST -1

model ARST -1

Nov 1line modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

TOL +3.5Spread

ARST -3.5

Bets

87%13%

Money

88%12%

Over 162.5TotalUnder 162.5

Bets

37%63%

Money

37%63%

TOLWinner

ARST

Bets

11%89%

Money

20%80%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	TOL	ARST	Over	Under	TOL	ARST
BetMGMMGM	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	162.5-115	162.5-105	+145	-175
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-3.5-107	+3.5-113	163-115	163-105	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-2.5-103	+2.5-125	162.5-109	162.5-117	+135	-175
BetUSBetUS	-3.5-105	+3.5-115	163-115	163-105	—	—
BovadaBovada	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	162.5-110	162.5-110	+140	-165
DraftKingsDK	-3.5-108	+3.5-112	162.5-112	162.5-108	+145	-175
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-3.5-103	+3.5-109	163-113	163-103	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	ARST -3.5	ARST -1.2	TOL +2.3
Total	162.5	158.3	Under 4.2
Projected score	—	TOL 78.5 · ARST 79.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ARST -0.6	—
1H total	73.9	—
1H projected score	TOL 36.7 · ARST 37.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WWLWW	19-13	59%	10-4	11-3
ARST WLLWL	15-15	50%	7-6	12-13

Venue/role: TOL away, as underdog; ARST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOOUU	13-19	41%	17-15
ARST UOOUU	15-15	50%	18-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
ARST	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Toledo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ MSU	L69–92WO
Nov 7	@ MRSH	L73–85LU
Nov 10	vs WRST	W81–71WU

Arkansas St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ ALA	L79–88WU
Nov 10	vs UTM	W70–64WU
Nov 18	vs UAPB	W84–73PO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Toledo

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

L L W W W W L L L L W W W L W L L W L W L L W L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L W L W W L W L W L L W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1941%

U U U O O U U O U O O U U U O O O U O U U U O U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSA	L 74-76	-2.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsMRSH	L 73-85	-2.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 11	@WRST	W 81-71	+5.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsDETM	W 90-83	-10.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 19	vsYSU	W 92-75	-1.5	W +15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 24	vsTROY	W 75-68	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 143
Nov 26	vsBEL	L 72-87	+4.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 6	@OAK	L 97-98	+4.5	W +3.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 13	@RMU	L 70-75	-1.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 16	@MSU	L 69-92	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsWMU	W 84-79	-10.5	L −5.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 3	@CMU	W 78-75	-7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@NIU	W 75-61	-7.5	W +6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 9	vsM-OH	L 73-87	-1.5	L −15.5	166.5	U 160
Jan 13	vsOHIO	W 101-85	-2.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 186
Jan 16	@KENT	L 84-87	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 171
Jan 20	@MASS	L 82-84	+2.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 166
Jan 24	vsBGSU	W 73-72	+1.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 27	@AKR	L 81-91	+12.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsBALL	W 73-55	-8.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 3	vsKENT	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	161.5	U 147
Feb 7	@JMU	L 71-73	-1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 144
Feb 11	@WMU	W 90-79	-6.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 169
Feb 14	@BGSU	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 150
Feb 21	vsEMU	W 94-75	-8.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsNIU	W 79-69	-12.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	@OHIO	W 79-67	+1.5	W +13.5	158.5	U 146
Mar 3	@M-OH	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 6	vsBUF	W 99-78	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	O 177
Mar 12	vsBGSU	W 77-76	-1.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Mar 13	vsMASS	W 77-67	-2.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 144
Mar 14	vsAKR	L 76-79	+7.5	W +4.5	157.5	U 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−4.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−14.5

WRST

W 81-71

+15.5

DETM

W 90-83

−3.5

YSU

W 92-75

+15.5

TROY

W 75-68

+9.5

BEL

L 72-87

−10.5

OAK

L 97-98

+3.5

RMU

L 70-75

−6.5

MSU

L 69-92

+0.5

WMU

W 84-79

−5.5

CMU

W 78-75

−4.5

NIU

W 75-61

+6.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−15.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+13.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+0.5

BGSU

W 73-72

+2.5

AKR

L 81-91

+2.5

BALL

W 73-55

+9.5

KENT

L 72-75

−1.5

JMU

L 71-73

−3.5

WMU

W 90-79

+4.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−6.5

EMU

W 94-75

+10.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

+13.5

M-OH

L 72-74

+5.5

BUF

W 99-78

+15.5

BGSU

W 77-76

−0.5

MASS

W 77-67

+7.5

AKR

L 76-79

+4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−0.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−2.5

WRST

W 81-71

−7.5

DETM

W 90-83

+13.5

YSU

W 92-75

+6.5

TROY

W 75-68

−16.5

BEL

L 72-87

−4.5

OAK

L 97-98

+28.5

RMU

L 70-75

−9.5

MSU

L 69-92

+10.5

WMU

W 84-79

+2.5

CMU

W 78-75

−5.5

NIU

W 75-61

−25.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−6.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+24.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+1.5

BGSU

W 73-72

−10.5

AKR

L 81-91

+3.5

BALL

W 73-55

−18.5

KENT

L 72-75

−14.5

JMU

L 71-73

−9.5

WMU

W 90-79

+14.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−0.5

EMU

W 94-75

+23.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

−12.5

M-OH

L 72-74

−16.5

BUF

W 99-78

+21.5

BGSU

W 77-76

+2.5

MASS

W 77-67

−14.5

AKR

L 76-79

−2.5

over 13under 19avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arkansas St

30 games played

Straight up

18-12

60% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1260%

W L W L L W W W W L W W L W W L L W L L L W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

W L W W L W W W W L W W L W L L L W L L L L W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U O O U U O U O U O O U U O O O U O U U U U O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OHIO	W 89-85	+3.5	W +7.5	159.5	O 174
Nov 7	@SFA	L 65-90	-1.5	L −26.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 11	@MOST	W 86-85	+1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 19	@SMC	L 72-85	+20.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 21	@SMU	L 69-100	+14.5	L −16.5	172.5	U 169
Nov 24	vsJXST	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 28	vsNDSU	W 85-80	-3.5	W +1.5	160.5	O 165
Dec 2	vsUTA	W 83-63	-5.5	W +14.5	151.5	U 146
Dec 6	@LR	W 90-78	-9.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 168
Dec 13	@RICE	L 76-77	-2.5	L −3.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 17	@TXST	W 89-70	-4.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 159
Dec 20	@USM	W 93-86	-1.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsJMU	L 74-78	-10.5	L −14.5	158.5	U 152
Jan 7	vsTROY	W 86-74	-4.5	W +7.5	160.5	U 160
Jan 10	vsTXST	W 83-82	-11.5	L −10.5	156.5	O 165
Jan 15	@USA	L 87-91	-4.5	L −8.5	154.5	O 178
Jan 17	@TROY	L 74-99	+3.5	L −21.5	165.5	O 173
Jan 22	@GASO	W 85-68	-1.5	W +15.5	172.5	U 153
Jan 24	@GAST	L 81-82	-4.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 28	vsODU	L 71-75	-9.5	L −13.5	159.5	U 146
Jan 31	vsMRSH	L 61-70	-3.5	L −12.5	165.5	U 131
Feb 4	@CCU	W 70-66	-4.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsBGSU	W 91-54	-2.5	W +34.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 11	vsULM	W 103-70	-20.5	W +12.5	162.5	O 173
Feb 14	vsUSA	L 88-92	-8.5	L −12.5	149.5	O 180
Feb 19	@UL	W 79-62	-8.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 141
Feb 21	@ULM	W 102-94	-15.5	L −7.5	165.5	O 196
Feb 24	vsUSM	W 89-84	-9.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 173
Feb 27	vsUL	W 81-58	-13.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 5	vsGASO	L 77-80	-7.5	L −10.5	165.5	U 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

W 89-85

+7.5

SFA

L 65-90

−26.5

MOST

W 86-85

+2.5

SMC

L 72-85

+7.5

SMU

L 69-100

−16.5

JXST

W 74-63

+6.5

NDSU

W 85-80

+1.5

UTA

W 83-63

+14.5

W 90-78

+2.5

RICE

L 76-77

−3.5

TXST

W 89-70

+14.5

USM

W 93-86

+5.5

JMU

L 74-78

−14.5

TROY

W 86-74

+7.5

TXST

W 83-82

−10.5

USA

L 87-91

−8.5

TROY

L 74-99

−21.5

GASO

W 85-68

+15.5

GAST

L 81-82

−5.5

ODU

L 71-75

−13.5

MRSH

L 61-70

−12.5

CCU

W 70-66

−0.5

BGSU

W 91-54

+34.5

ULM

W 103-70

+12.5

USA

L 88-92

−12.5

W 79-62

+8.5

ULM

W 102-94

−7.5

USM

W 89-84

−4.5

W 81-58

+9.5

GASO

L 77-80

−10.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

W 89-85

+14.5

SFA

L 65-90

−0.5

MOST

W 86-85

+18.5

SMC

L 72-85

+7.5

SMU

L 69-100

−3.5

JXST

W 74-63

−18.5

NDSU

W 85-80

+4.5

UTA

W 83-63

−5.5

W 90-78

+20.5

RICE

L 76-77

−2.5

TXST

W 89-70

+7.5

USM

W 93-86

+23.5

JMU

L 74-78

−6.5

TROY

W 86-74

−0.5

TXST

W 83-82

+8.5

USA

L 87-91

+23.5

TROY

L 74-99

+7.5

GASO

W 85-68

−19.5

GAST

L 81-82

+5.5

ODU

L 71-75

−13.5

MRSH

L 61-70

−34.5

CCU

W 70-66

−15.5

BGSU

W 91-54

−9.5

ULM

W 103-70

+10.5

USA

L 88-92

+30.5

W 79-62

−3.5

ULM

W 102-94

+30.5

USM

W 89-84

+14.5

W 81-58

−7.5

GASO

L 77-80

−8.5

over 15under 15avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Toledo 0, Arkansas St 0, even 5

ToledoBetterArkansas St

G A. Montas TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89

Even

G J. Pyke TR12.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 83

G S. Jones TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 3.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G L. Taylor TR8 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 45

G M. Strong5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 19

Even

G R. Blue Smith4.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 33

F J. Ouwinga6.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27

Even

F A. Doumbia TR3.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.2 ast Score 36

C A. Parks10.3 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 54

No call

F D. Muon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

ToledoBetterArkansas St

TOL offense121st of 366 · -2.8

TOLBig

ARST defense252nd of 366 · -6.6

TOL defense234th of 366 · -6.2

ARSTSmall

ARST offense122nd of 366 · -3.2

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

Bench-1.5 · 3 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestTOL betterARST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Toledo

Guards

A. Montas31 min · TRS. Jones21 min · TRM. Strong18 minW. James9 minM. JohnsonNewM. MattucciNew

Forwards

J. Ouwinga19 minC. Riddle13 minT. Nwokolo2 minR. BarronNewR. PorterNew

Centers

A. Parks25 min

Arkansas St

Guards

J. Pyke26 min · TRL. Taylor25 min · TRR. Blue Smith13 minC. WatsonNewT. FergusonNewC. GeathersNew

Forwards

A. Doumbia14 min · TRD. MuonNewG. BennettNewA. MaigaNewR. OmedNewM. SyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOL79.8 #71

ARST81.8 #33

Points per possession

TOL1.15 #62

ARST1.11 #117

Pace (possessions)

TOL69.5 #146

ARST73.4 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOL54.5 #50

ARST51.7 #164

3-point %

TOL37.0 #29

ARST32.9 #240

3-point attempt rate

TOL32.5 #323

ARST44.9 #70

Free throw rate

TOL30.5 #298

ARST39.1 #78

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOL14.7 #51

ARST19.8 #344

Offensive rebound rate

TOL29.5 #220

ARST38.2 #6

Assists per game

TOL15.6 #61

ARST15.3 #77

Defense

Points allowed

TOL77.4 #250

ARST78.0 #268

Points allowed per possession

TOL1.11 #257

ARST1.07 #121

Opponent effective FG%

TOL54.3 #308

ARST50.3 #117

Opponent 3-point %

TOL34.4 #215

ARST32.9 #115

Turnovers forced

TOL17.9 #104

ARST14.9 #298

Defensive rebound rate

TOL66.3 #313

ARST73.0 #36

Steals per game

TOL7.7 #67

ARST7.2 #110

Blocks per game

TOL2.9 #247

ARST2.8 #268

TOL		ARST
Scoring
79.8 #71	Points per game	81.8 #33
1.15 #62	Points per possession	1.11 #117
69.5 #146	Pace (possessions)	73.4 #16
Shooting
54.5 #50	Effective FG%	51.7 #164
37.0 #29	3-point %	32.9 #240
32.5 #323	3-point attempt rate	44.9 #70
30.5 #298	Free throw rate	39.1 #78
Possessions
14.7 #51	Turnover rate	19.8 #344
29.5 #220	Offensive rebound rate	38.2 #6
15.6 #61	Assists per game	15.3 #77
Defense
77.4 #250	Points allowed	78.0 #268
1.11 #257	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #121
54.3 #308	Opponent effective FG%	50.3 #117
34.4 #215	Opponent 3-point %	32.9 #115
17.9 #104	Turnovers forced	14.9 #298
66.3 #313	Defensive rebound rate	73.0 #36
7.7 #67	Steals per game	7.2 #110
2.9 #247	Blocks per game	2.8 #268

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Toledo

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Akron76–79
Wvs UMass77–67
Wvs Bowling Green77–76
Wvs Buffalo99–78
L@ Miami OH72–74

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas St

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs GA Southern77–80
Wvs Louisiana81–58
Wvs Southern Miss89–84
W@ UL Monroe102–94
W@ Louisiana79–62

A week or more of rest.