1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. FDU @ ILL
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights at Illinois Fighting Illini

State Farm Center · at Illinois
#356FDUFDU
@
#4ILLIllinois AP #3
LineILL -37.5moved 2 toward FDU
Total153.5up 1 from 152.5
FDUThis seasonILL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILL 97–50 · win probability ILL 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
ILL -37.5
moved 2 toward FDU
Total
153.5
model 147.1 · Under by 6.5
Model edge
ILL by 9
a gap this big often means news the model can’t see
Public on the spread
85% FDU
81% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILL has more of the edges

FDU 0, ILL 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ILLBig
FDU offense vs ILL defense
Offense 356th of 366 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
ILLBig
ILL offense vs FDU defense
Offense 3rd of 366 against a defense 320th, on the model’s ratings
ILLBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: FDU 47.1 and allows 55.2; ILL 54.7 and allows 47.3
Context
Schedule so far
FDU has played the 308th-hardest schedule, ILL the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ILLBig
Three-pointers
FDU hits 30.3% and allows 37.8%; ILL hits 34.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 45.2% and 49.7% of their shots
ILLBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: FDU 32.8, ILL 33.2. Allowed: FDU 36.3, ILL 19.7
ILLSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FDU 32.0%, ILL 39.2%. Defensive: FDU 72.7%, ILL 73.3%
ILLSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FDU 27%, ILL 63%. Transfers in: FDU 3, ILL 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
ILLSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FDU 18.2%, ILL 13.1%. Forced: FDU 16.1%, ILL 11.6%
ILLSmall
Home court
ILL at home. This season: ILL 0-0 at home, FDU 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 65 possessions: FDU plays 64.4 a game (356th fastest), ILL 66.5 (292nd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
2 pts toward FDU
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
FDU +8000 · ILL -100000
Line movement
Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened ILL -39.5 · now ILL -37.5 · moved 2.5 toward FDUmodel ILL -46.5
Opened 152.5 · now 153.5 · moved 1 upmodel 147
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
FDU +37.5SpreadILL -37.5
Bets
Money
Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5
Bets
Money
Money leans Over 153.5 · 67 pts more of the money than of the bets
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
FDUILLOverUnderFDUILL
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-37-115+37-105153.5-115153.5-105——
BetRiversBetRivers-38.5-113+38.5-113152.5-112152.5-114——
BovadaBovada-37-115+37-105153.5-115153.5-105——
DraftKingsDK-37.5-108+37.5-112153.5-110153.5-110——
FanDuelFD-38.5-110+38.5-110152.5-115152.5-105+8000-100000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-37-111+37-101153.5-113153.5-103——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadILL -37.5ILL -46.4ILL +8.9
Total153.5147.1Under 6.4
Projected score—FDU 50.4 · ILL 96.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadILL -27.5—
1H total68.8—
1H projected scoreFDU 20.7 · ILL 48.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Illinois has the better starters

Position by position: FDU 0, Illinois 4, even 1
FDUBetterIllinois
G D. Jevtic6.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25
ILLBig
G S. Vaaks TR15.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 86
G R. Johnson4.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 10
ILLBig
G A. Stojakovic13.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1 ast Score 95
G R. Elijah Godbolt1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 1
ILLBig
F D. Mirkovic13.3 pts · 8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 94
F P. Stosic TR3.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 16
ILLBig
F J. Davis5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58
F B. Agu TR2.7 pts · 2 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
C T. Ivisic10.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79
FDUBetterIllinois
FDU offense356th of 366 · -13.3
ILLBig
ILL defense8th of 366 · +8.4
FDU defense320th of 366 · -8.3
ILLBig
ILL offense3rd of 366 · +11.7
Backcourt-5.8 · 3 players
ILLBig
Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players
ILLBig
Frontcourt+6.7 · 3 players
Bench-1.3 · 3 players
ILLBig
Bench+2.9 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestFDU betterILL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
FDU
Guards
D. Jevtic21 minR. Johnson17 minR. Elijah Godbolt12 minT. McQuaid2 minJ. JacobsNewA. CandaNew
Forwards
P. Stosic16 min · TRB. Agu10 min · TRT. Torain9 min · TRA. RatliffNew
Centers
S. Haubro3 min
Illinois
Guards
S. Vaaks32 min · TRA. Stojakovic26 minB. Fagbemi4 minQ. McCoyNewQ. ColemanNewL. WilliamsNew
Forwards
D. Mirkovic30 minJ. Davis20 minZ. Ivisic17 minL. DavisNewZ. ZensNew
Centers
T. Ivisic25 minJ. Jakstys5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FDUILL
Scoring
65.1 #349Points per game83.2 #24
1.01 #314Points per possession1.25 #1
64.4 #356Pace (possessions)66.5 #292
Shooting
47.1 #333Effective FG%54.7 #46
30.3 #3393-point %34.5 #142
45.2 #633-point attempt rate49.7 #15
32.8 #240Free throw rate33.2 #232
Possessions
18.2 #280Turnover rate13.1 #9
32.0 #125Offensive rebound rate39.2 #3
11.4 #316Assists per game14.2 #133
Defense
72.7 #123Points allowed68.8 #45
1.13 #280Points allowed per possession1.03 #61
55.2 #336Opponent effective FG%47.3 #26
37.8 #354Opponent 3-point %31.3 #38
16.1 #218Turnovers forced11.6 #365
72.7 #46Defensive rebound rate73.3 #28
4.8 #344Steals per game3.7 #365
1.5 #362Blocks per game4.6 #28
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

FDU

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Mercyhurst61–70
  • L@ Long Island60–74
  • L@ Le Moyne59–76
  • Lvs New Haven77–84
  • W@ Chicago St60–59

A week or more of rest.

Illinois

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn62–71
  • Wvs Iowa71–59
  • Wvs Houston65–55
  • Wvs VCU76–55
  • Wvs Penn105–70

A week or more of rest.