1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. MERC @ ND
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

Mercyhurst Lakers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame
#331MERCMercyhurst
@
#71NDNotre Dame
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MERCThis seasonND
0-0Record1-0
0-0ATS1-0
0-0O/U1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ND 85–60 · win probability ND 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 144.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ND has more of the edges

MERC 1, ND 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
MERC has played the 356th-hardest schedule, ND the 69th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NDBig
MERC offense vs ND defense
Offense 346th of 366 against a defense 63rd, on the model’s ratings
MERCBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MERC 14.3%, ND 16.9%. Forced: MERC 18.6%, ND 14.0%
NDBig
ND offense vs MERC defense
Offense 76th of 366 against a defense 272nd, on the model’s ratings
NDBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MERC 26.4%, ND 31.2%. Defensive: MERC 70.1%, ND 73.3%
NDBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MERC 25.6, ND 34.1. Allowed: MERC 42.6, ND 36.2
NDSmall
Three-pointers
MERC hits 32.1% and allows 32.3%; ND hits 35.6% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 31.1% and 43.5% of their shots
NDSmall
Home court
ND at home. This season: ND 0-0 at home, MERC 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: MERC plays 65.6 a game (327th fastest), ND 67.7 (239th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MERC 26%, ND 38%. Transfers in: MERC 3, ND 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MERC 49.5 and allows 50.1; ND 52.3 and allows 51.8
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ND -24.8—
Total—144.1—
Projected score—MERC 59.7 · ND 84.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadND -14.6—
1H total67.4—
1H projected scoreMERC 26.4 · ND 41—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Notre Dame has the better starters

Position by position: Mercyhurst 0, Notre Dame 2, even 3
MercyhurstBetterNotre Dame
G J. Lemelman14.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
Even
G B. Shrewsberry15 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 73
G D. Kelly TR5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 6
NDBig
G E. Roberts TR11 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Score 64
G M. Jackson TR0.5 pts · 2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Smith TR16 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 91
F T. Rainwater TR9.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 48
Even
G D. Brown TR6.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 43
F C. Johnson2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 2
NDBig
C L. Duncomb TR18.2 pts · 8.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 99
MercyhurstBetterNotre Dame
MERC offense346th of 366 · -11.9
NDBig
ND defense63rd of 366 · +1.2
MERC defense272nd of 366 · -6.9
NDBig
ND offense76th of 366 · +1.1
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
NDBig
Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players
NDBig
Frontcourt+7.1 · 1 player
Bench-0.9 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestMERC betterND betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mercyhurst
Guards
J. Lemelman31 minD. Kelly21 min · TRM. Jackson7 min · TRO. Faran4 minB. Conner3 minM. Maxwell-GrimesNew
Forwards
T. Rainwater25 min · TRC. Johnson12 minC. Leman2 minD. AgbaosiNewS. KirkerNew
Notre Dame
Guards
B. Shrewsberry36 minE. Roberts32 min · TRB. Smith31 min · TRD. Brown24 min · TRL. Imes21 minB. Stevens2 min
Forwards
B. Koehler16 minB. Ruglass Dortch15 min · TRY. DialloNewL. DevineNew
Centers
L. Duncomb25 min · TRT. AhnemanNewG. SolongoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MERCND
Scoring
68.3 #310Points per game74.5 #180
1.04 #260Points per possession1.10 #143
65.6 #327Pace (possessions)67.7 #239
Shooting
49.5 #269Effective FG%52.3 #133
32.1 #2763-point %35.6 #82
31.1 #3383-point attempt rate43.5 #101
25.6 #361Free throw rate34.1 #206
Possessions
14.3 #35Turnover rate16.9 #199
26.4 #312Offensive rebound rate31.2 #155
14.0 #148Assists per game12.3 #267
Defense
68.7 #43Points allowed75.3 #197
1.04 #76Points allowed per possession1.11 #255
50.1 #107Opponent effective FG%51.8 #200
32.3 #80Opponent 3-point %33.2 #138
18.6 #68Turnovers forced14.0 #337
70.1 #153Defensive rebound rate73.3 #27
7.0 #130Steals per game4.5 #355
3.8 #94Blocks per game2.2 #328
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercyhurst

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island70–79
  • Wvs Stonehill56–51
  • Wvs FDU70–61
  • W@ Stonehill75–72
  • L@ C Connecticut78–80

A week or more of rest.

Notre Dame

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Boston College69–77
  • Lvs Stanford78–86
  • Wvs NC State96–90
  • Lvs Duke56–100
  • L@ Pitt68–73

4 days since their last game.