1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. MER @ VT
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

Mercer Bears at Virginia Tech Hokies

Cassell Coliseum · at Virginia Tech
#242MERMercer
@
#68VTVirginia Tech
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MERThis seasonVT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VT 86–67 · win probability VT 95%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VT has more of the edges

MER 1, VT 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VTBig
VT offense vs MER defense
Offense 68th of 366 against a defense 268th, on the model’s ratings
VTBig
MER offense vs VT defense
Offense 223rd of 366 against a defense 72nd, on the model’s ratings
VTBig
Three-pointers
MER hits 35.6% and allows 36.2%; VT hits 35.5% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 39.2% and 39.7% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
MER has played the 193rd-hardest schedule, VT the 74th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MERSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MER 39.2, VT 34.0. Allowed: MER 29.7, VT 28.8
VTSmall
Home court
VT at home. This season: VT 0-0 at home, MER 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MER 28%, VT 47%. Transfers in: MER 2, VT 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MER 53.1 and allows 52.5; VT 52.2 and allows 50.9
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MER 15.0%, VT 14.9%. Forced: MER 17.0%, VT 17.3%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MER plays 69.5 a game (148th fastest), VT 69.8 (127th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MER 32.6%, VT 31.9%. Defensive: MER 66.8%, VT 67.4%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—VT -19.4—
Total—153.2—
Projected score—MER 66.9 · VT 86.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVT -11.4—
1H total71.6—
1H projected scoreMER 30.1 · VT 41.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Virginia Tech has the better starters

Position by position: Mercer 0, Virginia Tech 3, even 2
MercerBetterVirginia Tech
G B. Shoulders9.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
VTSmall
G E. Copeland TR14.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 67
G Q. Perkins8.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 22
VTBig
G B. Hammond13.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 3.2 ast Score 89
F K. Steele TR8 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 62
Even
G I. Elohim TR12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 71
F M. Mabor Makoi TR1.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 10
VTBig
G T. Johnson8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 77
F P. Padegimas NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F A. Hansberry14.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 92
MercerBetterVirginia Tech
MER offense223rd of 366 · -6.8
VTBig
VT defense72nd of 366 · +0.8
MER defense268th of 366 · -6.8
VTBig
VT offense68th of 366 · +1.8
Backcourt-3.4 · 2 players
VTBig
Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
VTBig
Frontcourt+3.8 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+1.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMER betterVT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mercer
Guards
B. Shoulders32 minQ. Perkins24 minM. KoveosNewD. BarrNewH. LyttleNewK. LamonteNew
Forwards
K. Steele21 min · TRM. Mabor Makoi8 min · TRP. PadegimasNewS. MayhughNewD. KovacevicNew
Virginia Tech
Guards
E. Copeland32 min · TRB. Hammond32 minI. Elohim29 min · TRT. Johnson26 minJ. Curry24 min · TRB. Johnson21 min · TR
Forwards
A. Hansberry31 minM. Heide19 min · TRK. Atak14 min · TRS. Jones7 min
Centers
M. Sagnia12 min · TRS. DavisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MERVT
Scoring
80.1 #65Points per game78.8 #85
1.15 #55Points per possession1.13 #89
69.5 #148Pace (possessions)69.8 #127
Shooting
53.1 #98Effective FG%52.2 #134
35.6 #873-point %35.5 #88
39.2 #1883-point attempt rate39.7 #179
39.2 #74Free throw rate34.0 #209
Possessions
15.0 #67Turnover rate14.9 #60
32.6 #102Offensive rebound rate31.9 #129
12.7 #240Assists per game14.4 #122
Defense
77.8 #263Points allowed74.9 #184
1.12 #273Points allowed per possession1.07 #141
52.5 #242Opponent effective FG%50.9 #147
36.2 #311Opponent 3-point %30.6 #26
17.0 #155Turnovers forced17.3 #131
66.8 #303Defensive rebound rate67.4 #284
7.1 #115Steals per game6.4 #187
3.2 #186Blocks per game3.2 #190
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercer

16-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs W Carolina73–77
  • Wvs ETSU82–76
  • L@ W Carolina74–78
  • Wvs Samford89–86
  • Lvs Chattanooga90–94

A week or more of rest.

Virginia Tech

19-13 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wake Forest89–95
  • L@ Virginia72–76
  • Wvs Boston College72–63
  • L@ North Carolina82–89
  • Wvs Wake Forest82–63

A week or more of rest.