1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. UVM @ FAIR
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

Vermont Catamounts at Fairfield Stags

Leo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield
#186UVMVermont
@
#239FAIRFairfield
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UVMThis seasonFAIR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAIR 72–69 · win probability FAIR 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 140.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FAIR has more of the edges

UVM 2, FAIR 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UVMBig
FAIR offense vs UVM defense
Offense 282nd of 366 against a defense 134th, on the model’s ratings
UVMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UVM 53.1 and allows 50.4; FAIR 48.8 and allows 51.0
FAIRSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UVM 26.2%, FAIR 35.8%. Defensive: UVM 77.0%, FAIR 70.9%
FAIRSmall
UVM offense vs FAIR defense
Offense 264th of 366 against a defense 195th, on the model’s ratings
FAIRSmall
Home court
FAIR at home. This season: FAIR 0-0 at home, UVM 0-0 away
FAIRSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UVM 31.1, FAIR 27.7. Allowed: UVM 36.4, FAIR 30.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UVM 31%, FAIR 53%. Transfers in: UVM 4, FAIR 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: UVM plays 65.2 a game (342nd fastest), FAIR 67.3 (263rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UVM 14.3%, FAIR 15.4%. Forced: UVM 14.8%, FAIR 16.8%
Context
Schedule so far
UVM has played the 325th-hardest schedule, FAIR the 359th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
UVM hits 33.3% and allows 35.3%; FAIR hits 33.2% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 44.6% and 35.4% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FAIR -2.3—
Total—140.8—
Projected score—UVM 69.3 · FAIR 71.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFAIR -1.2—
1H total65.9—
1H projected scoreUVM 32.3 · FAIR 33.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Vermont 2, Fairfield 2, even 1
VermontBetterFairfield
G D. Yepdo TR10.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 24
FAIRBig
G D. Wucherpfennig11.8 pts · 8.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 71
G J. Broom TR2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 14
Even
G T. Williams6.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19
G M. Nkugwa2.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31
UVMSmall
G E. Mejia4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 11
F G. Yalden16.1 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 96
UVMBig
G H. Rawlins3.6 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 4
F N. Barnett5.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 41
FAIRBig
F Q. Martin TR12.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
VermontBetterFairfield
UVM offense264th of 366 · -8.1
FAIRSmall
FAIR defense195th of 366 · -4.8
UVM defense134th of 366 · -2.5
UVMBig
FAIR offense282nd of 366 · -8.7
Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players
UVMSmall
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench-1.4 · 3 players
Even
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUVM betterFAIR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Vermont
Guards
D. Yepdo32 min · TRJ. Broom15 min · TRM. Nkugwa13 minD. Glazkov13 min · TRK. Badru10 min · TRS. Clemons2 min
Forwards
G. Yalden26 minN. Barnett22 minM. BrunettoNewM. MasicNewS. GbiegbaNew
Fairfield
Guards
D. Wucherpfennig32 minT. Williams20 minE. Mejia19 minH. Rawlins17 minN. Rodriguez7 minJ. Ganton2 min
Forwards
Q. Martin32 min · TRM. Radunovic9 min · TRI. Munkadi9 minP. SmithNewO. SackoNewB. JonesNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UVMFAIR
Scoring
72.1 #237Points per game72.9 #226
1.11 #124Points per possession1.09 #166
65.2 #342Pace (possessions)67.3 #263
Shooting
53.1 #95Effective FG%48.8 #294
33.3 #2083-point %33.2 #216
44.6 #773-point attempt rate35.4 #262
31.1 #279Free throw rate27.7 #346
Possessions
14.3 #34Turnover rate15.4 #96
26.2 #318Offensive rebound rate35.8 #29
12.3 #266Assists per game12.1 #277
Defense
68.8 #44Points allowed71.9 #104
1.05 #96Points allowed per possession1.06 #118
50.4 #121Opponent effective FG%51.0 #159
35.3 #267Opponent 3-point %34.3 #200
14.8 #307Turnovers forced16.8 #169
77.0 #2Defensive rebound rate70.9 #116
4.5 #354Steals per game6.5 #183
2.7 #279Blocks per game3.5 #145
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Vermont

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMBC59–74
  • Wvs NJIT63–54
  • Wvs Bryant77–57
  • Wvs UAlbany69–56
  • Wvs UMass Lowell66–64

A week or more of rest.

Fairfield

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena61–76
  • Wvs Saint Peter's74–55
  • Wvs Manhattan71–60
  • Lvs Mount St Marys47–69
  • Wvs Siena72–58

A week or more of rest.