KeyBank Center · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
LOU -3.5✓ LOU covered by 0.5
LOU -3.5✓ LOU covered by 0.5Closing total160.5Over by 1.5
 USF | This season | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24-8 | Record | 23-10 |
| 18-14 | ATS | 15-18 |
| 14-18 | O/U | 13-20 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USF 79–86 LOU · ✓ LOU (73%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 27 | 52 | 79 |
| LOU | 37 | 46 | 83 |
1st half: USF 27, LOU 37 (LOU by 10). The model had LOU by 4.1 and a total of 77.1 (actual 64).
Team stats
| USF | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-77 39% | Field goals | 28-52 54% |
| 5-33 15% | 3-pointers | 13-25 52% |
| 14-16 88% | Free throws | 14-25 56% |
| 37 18 off | Rebounds | 41 11 off |
| 14 | Assists | 17 |
| 15 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 22 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 18 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| USF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Pinion G | 38 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 10-25 | 5-14 |
| Izaiyah Nelson F | 35 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 9-17 | 0-2 |
| Wes Enis G | 32 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2-15 | 0-11 |
| Josh Omojafo G | 23 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| CJ Brown G | 19 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaiah Jones F | 27 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Gavin Hightower G | 23 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Daimion Collins F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Adriel Nyorha, Tristan Beckford, Caleb Sanders, Xavier Brown, Devin Haid, Onyx Nnani, De'Ante Green
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Conwell G | 37 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 5-14 | 2-7 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 33 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 30 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 28 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 8-11 | 7-10 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 10 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sananda Fru F | 25 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 20 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Khani Rooths F | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Will Hanke, Mouhamed Camara, Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, London Johnson, Mikel Brown Jr., Kasean Pryor
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLOU -3.5
ModelLOU -7.2
Model edgeLOU +3.7
W LOU covered
Total
Market160.5
Model165.1
Model edgeOver 4.6
W Over
Projected score
USF 79 · LOU 86.1
USF 79 · LOU 83
Win probability
LOU 73%
1st half
Spread
LOU -4.1
LOU -10.0
Total
77.1
64 points
Projected score
USF 36.5 · LOU 40.6
USF 27 · LOU 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -7.5
4 → USF
CloseLOU -3.5
4 pts toward USF
Total
Open163.5
▼ 3
Close160.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
USF +142 · LOU -170
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -7.5 · closed LOU -3.5 · moved 4 toward USFmodel LOU -7
model LOU -7
Opened 163.5 · closed 160.5 · moved 3 downmodel 165
model 165
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 10-0 100% | 8-2 80% | 1-9 10% |
| LOU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
South Florida
32 games played
Straight up
24-8
75% wins
Against the spread
18-14
56% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-18
44% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAMU | W 102-67 | -25.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 8 | vs GW | L 95-99 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 159.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 12 | vs COPP | W 100-50 | -34.5 | W +15.5 | 167.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 16 | @ KENN | W 108-89 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 177.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 19 | @ OKST | L 95-103 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 177.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 26 | vs VCU | L 66-78 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 27 | vs WKU | W 97-91 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 28 | vs CSU | L 68-83 | -2.5 | L −17.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 4 | vs USU | W 74-61 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 162.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 10 | vs COFC | W 81-75 | -13.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 17 | @ ALA | L 93-104 | +14.5 | W +3.5 | 178.5 | O 197 |
| Dec 21 | vs UMBC | W 94-69 | -22.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 4 | vs UAB | L 106-109 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | O 215 |
| Jan 7 | @ UNT | W 74-70 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ TLSA | W 93-78 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 163.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | vs ECU | W 82-71 | -18.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 18 | vs WICH | L 85-86 | -7.5 | L −8.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 22 | @UAB | W 82-69 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 168.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 25 | vs FAU | W 89-75 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 166.5 | U 164 |
| Jan 28 | @ TULN | W 97-83 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 31 | @ TEM | L 78-79 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 4 | vs UTSA | W 109-88 | -23.5 | L −2.5 | 164.5 | O 197 |
| Feb 8 | vsTLSA | W 80-74 | -4.5 | W +1.5 | 170.5 | U 154 |
| Feb 11 | @WICH | W 66-58 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 15 | @FAU | W 83-81 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 164 |
| Feb 19 | vs MEM | W 87-66 | -9.5 | W +11.5 | 163.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 25 | @ RICE | W 75-56 | -11.5 | W +7.5 | 157.5 | U 131 |
| Mar 1 | vsTULN | W 90-62 | -15.5 | W +12.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Mar 5 | @MEM | W 96-89 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 185 |
| Mar 8 | vs CLT | W 83-60 | -17.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | U 143 |
| Mar 14 | vsCLT | W 86-64 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | U 150 |
| Mar 15 | vsWICH | W 70-55 | -6.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 125 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+9.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
−5.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
+15.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+11.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
−4.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−10.5
27
vsWKU
WKUW 97-91
−1.5
28
vsCSU
CSUL 68-83
−17.5
4
vsUSU
USUW 74-61
+10.5
10
vsCOFC
COFCW 81-75
−7.5
17
@ALA
ALAL 93-104
+3.5
21
vsUMBC
UMBCW 94-69
+2.5
4
vsUAB
UABL 106-109
−11.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 74-70
−0.5
10
@TLSA
TLSAW 93-78
+16.5
14
vsECU
ECUW 82-71
−7.5
18
vsWICH
WICHL 85-86
−8.5
22
@UAB
UABW 82-69
+10.5
25
vsFAU
FAUW 89-75
+8.5
28
@TULN
TULNW 97-83
+5.5
31
@TEM
TEML 78-79
−10.5
4
vsUTSA
UTSAW 109-88
−2.5
8
vsTLSA
TLSAW 80-74
+1.5
11
@WICH
WICHW 66-58
+5.5
15
@FAU
FAUW 83-81
−2.5
19
vsMEM
MEMW 87-66
+11.5
25
@RICE
RICEW 75-56
+7.5
1
vsTULN
TULNW 90-62
+12.5
5
@MEM
MEMW 96-89
−0.5
8
vsCLT
CLTW 83-60
+5.5
14
vsCLT
CLTW 86-64
+6.5
15
vsWICH
WICHW 70-55
+8.5
covered 18didn’t cover 14avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+15.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
+34.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
−17.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+19.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
+20.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−28.5
27
vsWKU
WKUW 97-91
+20.5
28
vsCSU
CSUL 68-83
−4.5
4
vsUSU
USUW 74-61
−27.5
10
vsCOFC
COFCW 81-75
−4.5
17
@ALA
ALAL 93-104
+18.5
21
vsUMBC
UMBCW 94-69
+2.5
4
vsUAB
UABL 106-109
+51.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 74-70
−3.5
10
@TLSA
TLSAW 93-78
+7.5
14
vsECU
ECUW 82-71
−5.5
18
vsWICH
WICHL 85-86
+12.5
22
@UAB
UABW 82-69
−17.5
25
vsFAU
FAUW 89-75
−2.5
28
@TULN
TULNW 97-83
+21.5
31
@TEM
TEML 78-79
+2.5
4
vsUTSA
UTSAW 109-88
+32.5
8
vsTLSA
TLSAW 80-74
−16.5
11
@WICH
WICHW 66-58
−36.5
15
@FAU
FAUW 83-81
−1.5
19
vsMEM
MEMW 87-66
−10.5
25
@RICE
RICEW 75-56
−26.5
1
vsTULN
TULNW 90-62
−3.5
5
@MEM
MEMW 96-89
+21.5
8
vsCLT
CLTW 83-60
−13.5
14
vsCLT
CLTW 86-64
−3.5
15
vsWICH
WICHW 70-55
−26.5
over 14under 18avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisville
33 games played
Straight up
23-10
70% wins
Against the spread
15-18
45% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-20
39% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total
Against the spread
15-1845%
2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vsMEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs BC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs UVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vs VT | W 85-71 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 26 | @DUKE | L 52-83 | +8.5 | L −22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vs SMU | W 88-74 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs ND | W 76-65 | -19.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | @ WAKE | W 88-80 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 9 | vs NCSU | W 118-77 | -6.5 | W +34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 14 | vs BAY | W 82-71 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | @SMU | L 85-95 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 21 | vs GT | W 87-70 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 167.5 | U 157 |
| Feb 23 | @ UNC | L 74-77 | -3.5 | L −6.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | @ CLEM | L 75-80 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
| Mar 3 | vs SYR | W 77-62 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 7 | @ MIA | W 92-89 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 11 | vsSMU | W 62-58 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 120 |
| Mar 12 | vsMIA | L 73-78 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 153.5 | U 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−0.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
+4.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−8.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
−1.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+34.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
+3.5
17
@SMU
SMUL 85-95
−14.5
21
vsGT
GTW 87-70
−6.5
23
@UNC
UNCL 74-77
−6.5
28
@CLEM
CLEML 75-80
−7.5
3
vsSYR
SYRW 77-62
+0.5
7
@MIA
MIAW 92-89
+4.5
11
vsSMU
SMUW 62-58
−3.5
12
vsMIA
MIAL 73-78
−6.5
covered 15didn’t cover 18avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−4.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
−1.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−14.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
+5.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+33.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
−9.5
17
@SMU
SMUL 85-95
+11.5
21
vsGT
GTW 87-70
−10.5
23
@UNC
UNCL 74-77
−11.5
28
@CLEM
CLEML 75-80
+8.5
3
vsSYR
SYRW 77-62
−20.5
7
@MIA
MIAW 92-89
+25.5
11
vsSMU
SMUW 62-58
−44.5
12
vsMIA
MIAL 73-78
−2.5
over 13under 20avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
South Florida
24-8 overall · 17-3 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Wichita St70–55
- Wvs Charlotte86–64
- Wvs Charlotte83–60
- W@ Memphis96–89
- Wvs Tulane90–62
4 days since their last game.
Louisville
23-10 overall · 12-8 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Miami73–78
- Wvs SMU62–58
- W@ Miami92–89
- Wvs Syracuse77–62
- L@ Clemson75–80
A week or more of rest.