United Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
MSU -5.5✓ UCLA covered by 9.5
MSU -5.5✓ UCLA covered by 9.5Closing total141.5Over by 30.5
 UCLA | This season | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| 22-10 | Record | 25-6 |
| 15-17 | ATS | 16-15 |
| 16-16 | O/U | 14-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UCLA 69–74 MSU · ✗ MSU (65%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 44 | 44 | 88 |
| MSU | 33 | 51 | 84 |
1st half: UCLA 44, MSU 33 (UCLA by 11). The model had MSU by 2.5 and a total of 67.0 (actual 77).
Team stats
| UCLA | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-54 56% | Field goals | 28-62 45% |
| 13-27 48% | 3-pointers | 11-23 48% |
| 15-19 79% | Free throws | 17-22 77% |
| 26 6 off | Rebounds | 34 16 off |
| 20 | Assists | 24 |
| 12 | Steals | 3 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| UCLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Dent G | 38 | 23 | 6 | 12 | 8-18 | 3-5 |
| Eric Dailey Jr. F | 34 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 5-7 | 2-3 |
| Skyy Clark G | 33 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 6-11 | 3-8 |
| Trent Perry G | 30 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 6-10 | 4-8 |
| Tyler Bilodeau F | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brandon Williams F | 19 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Xavier Booker C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Eric Freeny G | 12 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jamar Brown G | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Steven Jamerson II F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jack Seidler, Evan Manjikian, Christian Horry, Anthony Peoples Jr., Markell Alston
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 36 | 21 | 1 | 13 | 7-14 | 2-3 |
| Carson Cooper C | 29 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Scott F | 29 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2-7 | 2-6 |
| Coen Carr F | 28 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 5-9 | 1-1 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 26 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kur Teng G | 26 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 4-11 | 3-8 |
| Trey Fort G | 13 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Cam Ward F | 11 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nick Sanders, Divine Ugochukwu, Kaleb Glenn, Jesse McCulloch, Brennan Walton, Colin Walton
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMSU -5.5
ModelMSU -4.4
Model edgeUCLA +1.1
W UCLA covered
Total
Market141.5
Model143.2
Model edgeOver 1.7
W Over
Projected score
UCLA 69.4 · MSU 73.8
UCLA 88 · MSU 84
Win probability
MSU 65%
1st half
Spread
MSU -2.5
UCLA -11.0
Total
67.0
77 points
Projected score
UCLA 32.2 · MSU 34.8
UCLA 44 · MSU 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -5.5
no move
CloseMSU -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open141.5
no move
Close141.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
UCLA +190 · MSU -230
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -5.5 · unchangedmodel MSU -4.5
model MSU -4.5
Opened 141.5 · unchangedmodel 143
model 143
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| MSU | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UCLA 1–1 MSUSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · UCLA 0-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2025-26 | UCLA 59 @ MSU 82 | MSU -8.5 | MSU W |
| Feb 4, 2024-25 | MSU 61 @ UCLA 63 | UCLA -2.5 | MSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UCLA
32 games played
Straight up
22-10
69% wins
Against the spread
15-17
47% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-16
50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs EWU | W 80-74 | -29.5 | L −23.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 7 | vs PEPP | W 74-63 | -29.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 10 | vs WGA | W 83-62 | -30.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 14 | vs ARIZ | L 65-69 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 18 | vs SAC | W 79-48 | -27.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | vs PRES | W 86-46 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 131.5 | O 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs CAL | L 72-80 | -7.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 3 | @ WASH | W 82-80 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs ORE | W 74-63 | -8.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 13 | vs GONZ | L 72-82 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 17 | vs ASU | W 90-77 | -9.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 19 | vs CP | W 108-87 | -24.5 | L −3.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 23 | vs UCR | W 97-65 | -24.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 3 | @ IOWA | L 61-74 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | @ WIS | L 72-80 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 10 | vs MD | W 67-55 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 14 | @ PSU | W 71-60 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 17 | @ OSU | L 74-86 | +4.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 20 | vs PUR | W 69-67 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 24 | vs NU | W 71-64 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 28 | @ORE | W 73-57 | -4.5 | W +11.5 | 136.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 31 | vs IU | L 97-98 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 144.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 3 | vs RUTG | W 98-66 | -13.5 | W +18.5 | 142.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 7 | vsWASH | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 14 | @ MICH | L 56-86 | +15.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 17 | @MSU | L 59-82 | +8.5 | L −14.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 21 | vs ILL | W 95-94 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 189 |
| Feb 24 | vs USC | W 81-62 | -6.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 28 | @ MINN | L 73-78 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | O 151 |
| Mar 3 | vs NEB | W 72-52 | -1.5 | W +18.5 | 144.5 | U 124 |
| Mar 7 | @USC | W 89-68 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Mar 12 | vsRUTG | W 72-59 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 141.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsEWU
EWUW 80-74
−23.5
7
vsPEPP
PEPPW 74-63
−18.5
10
vsWGA
WGAW 83-62
−9.5
14
vsARIZ
ARIZL 65-69
−2.5
18
vsSAC
SACW 79-48
+3.5
21
vsPRES
PRESW 86-46
+14.5
25
vsCAL
CALL 72-80
−15.5
3
@WASH
WASHW 82-80
−0.5
6
vsORE
OREW 74-63
+2.5
13
vsGONZ
GONZL 72-82
+0.5
17
vsASU
ASUW 90-77
+3.5
19
vsCP
CPW 108-87
−3.5
23
vsUCR
UCRW 97-65
+7.5
3
@IOWA
IOWAL 61-74
−6.5
6
@WIS
WISL 72-80
−4.5
10
vsMD
MDW 67-55
−1.5
14
@PSU
PSUW 71-60
+6.5
17
@OSU
OSUL 74-86
−7.5
20
vsPUR
PURW 69-67
+7.5
24
vsNU
NUW 71-64
−0.5
28
@ORE
OREW 73-57
+11.5
31
vsIU
IUL 97-98
−4.5
3
vsRUTG
RUTGW 98-66
+18.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 77-73
−0.5
14
@MICH
MICHL 56-86
−14.5
17
@MSU
MSUL 59-82
−14.5
21
vsILL
ILLW 95-94
+7.5
24
vsUSC
USCW 81-62
+12.5
28
@MINN
MINNL 73-78
−6.5
3
vsNEB
NEBW 72-52
+18.5
7
@USC
USCW 89-68
+16.5
12
vsRUTG
RUTGW 72-59
+2.5
covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsEWU
EWUW 80-74
+4.5
7
vsPEPP
PEPPW 74-63
−15.5
10
vsWGA
WGAW 83-62
−1.5
14
vsARIZ
ARIZL 65-69
−19.5
18
vsSAC
SACW 79-48
−19.5
21
vsPRES
PRESW 86-46
+0.5
25
vsCAL
CALL 72-80
+8.5
3
@WASH
WASHW 82-80
+20.5
6
vsORE
OREW 74-63
−9.5
13
vsGONZ
GONZL 72-82
+6.5
17
vsASU
ASUW 90-77
+24.5
19
vsCP
CPW 108-87
+33.5
23
vsUCR
UCRW 97-65
+13.5
3
@IOWA
IOWAL 61-74
−5.5
6
@WIS
WISL 72-80
−0.5
10
vsMD
MDW 67-55
−25.5
14
@PSU
PSUW 71-60
−17.5
17
@OSU
OSUL 74-86
+13.5
20
vsPUR
PURW 69-67
−11.5
24
vsNU
NUW 71-64
−8.5
28
@ORE
OREW 73-57
−6.5
31
vsIU
IUL 97-98
+50.5
3
vsRUTG
RUTGW 98-66
+21.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 77-73
+5.5
14
@MICH
MICHL 56-86
−14.5
17
@MSU
MSUL 59-82
+1.5
21
vsILL
ILLW 95-94
+42.5
24
vsUSC
USCW 81-62
−7.5
28
@MINN
MINNL 73-78
+14.5
3
vsNEB
NEBW 72-52
−20.5
7
@USC
USCW 89-68
+5.5
12
vsRUTG
RUTGW 72-59
−10.5
over 16under 16avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan St
31 games played
Straight up
25-6
81% wins
Against the spread
16-15
52% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-17
45% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vsIOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | vsUSC | W 80-51 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 8 | vsNU | W 76-66 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 13 | vsIU | W 81-60 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 17 | @WASH | W 80-63 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | @ORE | W 68-52 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 24 | vsMD | W 91-48 | -18.5 | W +24.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 27 | @RUTG | W 88-79 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 30 | vsMICH | L 71-83 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 4 | @MINN | L 73-76 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 7 | vsILL | W 85-82 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 13 | @WIS | L 71-92 | -1.5 | L −22.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 17 | vsUCLA | W 82-59 | -8.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 22 | vsOSU | W 66-60 | -10.5 | L −4.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Feb 26 | @PUR | W 76-74 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 1 | @IU | W 77-64 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 144.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 5 | vsRUTG | W 91-87 | -20.5 | L −16.5 | 141.5 | O 178 |
| Mar 8 | @MICH | L 80-90 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
+17.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−3.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
+14.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
+13.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
+5.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
+24.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
−5.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
−9.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
−11.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+1.5
13
@WIS
WISL 71-92
−22.5
17
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-59
+14.5
22
vsOSU
OSUW 66-60
−4.5
26
@PUR
PURW 76-74
+7.5
1
@IU
IUW 77-64
+10.5
5
vsRUTG
RUTGW 91-87
−16.5
8
@MICH
MICHL 80-90
+0.5
covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
−20.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−1.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
−4.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
−2.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
−19.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
−2.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
+28.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
+4.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
+12.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+24.5
13
@WIS
WISL 71-92
+13.5
17
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-59
+1.5
22
vsOSU
OSUW 66-60
−20.5
26
@PUR
PURW 76-74
+6.5
1
@IU
IUW 77-64
−3.5
5
vsRUTG
RUTGW 91-87
+36.5
8
@MICH
MICHL 80-90
+17.5
over 14under 17avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UCLA
22-10 overall · 14-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Rutgers72–59
- W@ USC89–68
- Wvs Nebraska72–52
- L@ Minnesota73–78
- Wvs USC81–62
1 day since their last game.
Michigan St
25-6 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Michigan80–90
- Wvs Rutgers91–87
- W@ Indiana77–64
- W@ Purdue76–74
- Wvs Ohio State66–60
5 days since their last game.