Mackey Arena · at Purdue · Conference game
Closing line
PUR -5.5✓ MSU covered by 7.5
PUR -5.5✓ MSU covered by 7.5Closing total143.5Over by 6.5
 MSU | This season | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| 22-5 | Record | 22-5 |
| 13-14 | ATS | 13-14 |
| 11-16 | O/U | 12-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSU 69–76 PUR · ✗ PUR (72%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 36 | 40 | 76 |
| PUR | 39 | 35 | 74 |
1st half: MSU 36, PUR 39 (PUR by 3). The model had PUR by 3.9 and a total of 68.0 (actual 75).
Team stats
| MSU | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-55 53% | Field goals | 28-57 49% |
| 6-19 32% | 3-pointers | 12-25 48% |
| 12-16 75% | Free throws | 6-9 67% |
| 25 6 off | Rebounds | 27 8 off |
| 15 | Assists | 23 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 36 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5-10 | 1-3 |
| Jordan Scott F | 34 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Coen Carr F | 31 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-2 |
| Carson Cooper C | 30 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 25 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-10 | 1-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cam Ward F | 20 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Kur Teng G | 20 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nick Sanders, Jesse McCulloch, Brennan Walton, Colin Walton, Divine Ugochukwu, Trey Fort, Kaleb Glenn
| PUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith G | 37 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 4-10 | 2-7 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn F | 33 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Fletcher Loyer G | 31 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| Oscar Cluff C | 21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| C.J. Cox G | 19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jack Benter G | 17 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4-6 | 3-5 |
| Omer Mayer G | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Gicarri Harris G | 15 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Daniel Jacobsen C | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jack Lusk, Aaron Fine, Jace Rayl, Antione West Jr, Sam King, Raleigh Burgess, Liam Murphy
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPUR -5.5
ModelPUR -6.8
Model edgePUR +1.3
L MSU covered
Total
Market143.5
Model145.2
Model edgeOver 1.7
W Over
Projected score
MSU 69.2 · PUR 76
MSU 76 · PUR 74
Win probability
PUR 72%
1st half
Spread
PUR -3.9
PUR -3.0
Total
68.0
75 points
Projected score
MSU 32 · PUR 35.9
MSU 36 · PUR 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPUR -5.5
no move
ClosePUR -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open139.5
▲ 4
Close143.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
MSU +225 · PUR -278
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PUR -5.5 · unchangedmodel PUR -7
model PUR -7
Opened 139.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 4 upmodel 145
model 145
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| PUR | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
MSU 2–5 PURPUR leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · MSU 6-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024-25 | PUR 66 @ MSU 75 | MSU -3.5 | MSU W |
| Mar 15, 2023-24 | MSU 62 vs PUR 67 | PUR -7.5 | MSU W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | MSU 74 @ PUR 80 | PUR -10.5 | MSU W |
| Jan 29, 2022-23 | MSU 61 @ PUR 77 | PUR -8.5 | PUR W |
| Jan 16, 2022-23 | PUR 64 @ MSU 63 | MSU +3.5 | MSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan St
27 games played
Straight up
22-5
81% wins
Against the spread
13-14
48% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-16
41% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @ PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @ NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | vs USC | W 80-51 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 8 | vs NU | W 76-66 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 13 | vs IU | W 81-60 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 17 | @ WASH | W 80-63 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | @ ORE | W 68-52 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 24 | vs MD | W 91-48 | -18.5 | W +24.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 27 | @ RUTG | W 88-79 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 30 | vs MICH | L 71-83 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 4 | @ MINN | L 73-76 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 7 | vs ILL | W 85-82 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 13 | @ WIS | L 71-92 | -1.5 | L −22.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 17 | vs UCLA | W 82-59 | -8.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 22 | vs OSU | W 66-60 | -10.5 | L −4.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
+17.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−3.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
+14.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
+13.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
+5.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
+24.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
−5.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
−9.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
−11.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+1.5
13
@WIS
WISL 71-92
−22.5
17
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-59
+14.5
22
vsOSU
OSUW 66-60
−4.5
covered 13didn’t cover 14avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
−20.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−1.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
−4.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
−2.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
−19.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
−2.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
+28.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
+4.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
+12.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+24.5
13
@WIS
WISL 71-92
+13.5
17
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-59
+1.5
22
vsOSU
OSUW 66-60
−20.5
over 11under 16avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Purdue
27 games played
Straight up
22-5
81% wins
Against the spread
13-14
48% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-15
44% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EVAN | W 82-51 | -33.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vsOAK | W 87-77 | -31.5 | L −21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 13 | @ ALA | W 87-80 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 16 | vs AKR | W 97-79 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 20 | vs MEM | W 80-71 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs TTU | W 86-56 | -3.5 | W +26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 28 | vs EIU | W 109-62 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 2 | @RUTG | W 81-65 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | vs ISU | L 58-81 | -4.5 | L −27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 10 | vsMINN | W 85-57 | -19.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs MARQ | W 79-59 | -16.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs AUB | W 88-60 | -7.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs KENT | W 101-60 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 3 | @WIS | W 89-73 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 7 | vsWASH | W 81-73 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 10 | vsPSU | W 93-85 | -22.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 14 | vsIOWA | W 79-72 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 17 | @USC | W 69-64 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 20 | @UCLA | L 67-69 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 24 | vsILL | L 82-88 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 27 | @IU | L 67-72 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 1 | @MD | W 93-63 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 7 | vsORE | W 68-64 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 10 | @NEB | W 80-77 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 146.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 14 | @IOWA | W 78-57 | -2.5 | W +18.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 17 | vsMICH | L 80-91 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 20 | vsIU | W 93-64 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−2.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
−21.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
+10.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
−0.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
+26.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+6.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
+2.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−27.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
+8.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
+3.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
+20.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+16.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+10.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−8.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
−14.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
−3.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−4.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−7.5
24
vsILL
ILLL 82-88
−11.5
27
@IU
IUL 67-72
−9.5
1
@MD
MDW 93-63
+14.5
7
vsORE
OREW 68-64
−15.5
10
@NEB
NEBW 80-77
+5.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAW 78-57
+18.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 80-91
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 93-64
+17.5
covered 13didn’t cover 14avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−17.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
+5.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
−5.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
+12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
−11.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+29.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
−0.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−15.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
−1.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
−16.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
−4.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+5.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+8.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−0.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
+25.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
+5.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−22.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−11.5
24
vsILL
ILLL 82-88
+17.5
27
@IU
IUL 67-72
−11.5
1
@MD
MDW 93-63
+7.5
7
vsORE
OREW 68-64
−12.5
10
@NEB
NEBW 80-77
+10.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAW 78-57
−7.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 80-91
+14.5
20
vsIU
IUW 93-64
+6.5
over 12under 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan St
22-5 overall · 12-4 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Ohio State66–60
- Wvs UCLA82–59
- L@ Wisconsin71–92
- Wvs Illinois85–82
- L@ Minnesota73–76
4 days since their last game.
Purdue
22-5 overall · 12-4 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Indiana93–64
- Lvs Michigan80–91
- W@ Iowa78–57
- W@ Nebraska80–77
- Wvs Oregon68–64
6 days since their last game.