EagleBank Arena · at George Mason
Closing line
GMU -16.5✓ GMU covered by 5.5
GMU -16.5✓ GMU covered by 5.5Closing total136.5Under by 0.5
 JAX | This season | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | ATS | 1-2 |
| 1-2 | O/U | 1-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: JAX 61–77 GMU · ✓ GMU (92%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | 22 | 35 | 57 |
| GMU | 33 | 46 | 79 |
1st half: JAX 22, GMU 33 (GMU by 11). The model had GMU by 9.4 and a total of 64.7 (actual 55).
Team stats
| JAX | GMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-52 38% | Field goals | 25-43 58% |
| 4-17 24% | 3-pointers | 7-14 50% |
| 13-15 87% | Free throws | 22-35 63% |
| 29 12 off | Rebounds | 27 8 off |
| 7 | Assists | 14 |
| 6 | Steals | 10 |
| 1 | Blocks | 7 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 25 | Fouls | 16 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| JAX | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Jones G | 26 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 5-10 | 1-3 |
| Evan Sterck G | 23 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Hayden Wood G | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Jason Thirdkill Jr. F | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Donovan Rivers F | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chris Arias G | 27 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-4 |
| Chris Lockett Jr. G | 23 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Enrico Borio F | 20 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Allen Udemadu F | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Jordon F | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Simon Wheeler G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Michael Harper Jr. G | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Charles Caporaso C | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Anakin Brown, Lamont Jackson, Tito Deng, Roman Loux
| GMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kory Mincy G | 35 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 4-7 | 3-4 |
| Jahari Long G | 32 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Malik Presley G | 29 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Dola Adebayo F | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Riley Allenspach F | 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Masai Troutman G | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 5-10 | 1-3 |
| Nick Ellington F | 19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Emmanuel Kanga F | 12 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Devin Booker G | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Stas Sivka F | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| T.J. Prosise G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ben Woodward G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Fatt Hill, Isaiah Skinn, Ryan-Preston Mendy, Brayden O'Connor
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketGMU -16.5
ModelGMU -15.9
Model edgeJAX +0.6
L GMU covered
Total
Market136.5
Model138.0
Model edgeOver 1.5
L Under
Projected score
JAX 61.1 · GMU 76.9
JAX 57 · GMU 79
Win probability
GMU 92%
1st half
Spread
GMU -9.4
GMU -11.0
Total
64.7
55 points
Projected score
JAX 27.6 · GMU 37.1
JAX 22 · GMU 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenGMU -12.5
4 → GMU
CloseGMU -16.5
4 pts toward GMU
Total
Open135.5
▲ 1
Close136.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
JAX +1300 · GMU -4000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened GMU -12.5 · closed GMU -16.5 · moved 4 toward GMUmodel GMU -16
model GMU -16
Opened 135.5 · closed 136.5 · moved 1 upmodel 138
model 138
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAXlast 3 | 1-2 33% | 2-1 67% | 1-2 33% |
| GMUlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 1-2 33% | 1-2 33% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Jacksonville
3 games played
Straight up
1-2
33% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
MIA
MIAL 69-86
+1.5
11
@
HPU
HPUL 64-85
−3.5
15
@
VMI
VMIW 69-67
+0.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@MIA
MIAL 69-86
+12.5
11
@HPU
HPUL 64-85
−7.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 69-67
−15.5
over 1under 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
George Mason
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
WOF
WOFW 70-46
+9.5
7
vs
WIN
WINW 96-90
−3.5
15
vs
UNH
UNHW 61-44
−7.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWOF
WOFW 70-46
−24.5
7
vsWIN
WINW 96-90
+39.5
15
vsUNH
UNHW 61-44
−39.5
over 1under 2avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Jacksonville
1-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ VMI69–67
- L@ High Point64–85
- L@ Miami69–86
3 days since their last game.
George Mason
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs New Hampshire61–44
- Wvs Winthrop96–90
- Wvs Wofford70–46
3 days since their last game.