Baptist Health Arena · at E Kentucky
Closing line
EKU -4.5✓ MER covered by 16.5
EKU -4.5✓ MER covered by 16.5Closing total163.5Over by 14.5
 MER | This season | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 0-3 |
| 2-1 | ATS | 0-3 |
| 2-1 | O/U | 2-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MER 78–80 EKU · ✗ EKU (59%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MER | 53 | 42 | 95 |
| EKU | 38 | 45 | 83 |
1st half: MER 53, EKU 38 (MER by 15). The model had EKU by 1.5 and a total of 74.0 (actual 91).
Team stats
| MER | EKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 34-61 56% | Field goals | 30-73 41% |
| 13-23 57% | 3-pointers | 11-29 38% |
| 14-18 78% | Free throws | 12-15 80% |
| 40 14 off | Rebounds | 34 18 off |
| 19 | Assists | 16 |
| 7 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| MER | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Shoulders G | 38 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Armani Mighty C | 35 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 6-7 | 0-0 |
| Quinton Perkins II G | 32 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 7-9 | 4-5 |
| Baraka Okojie G | 31 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 6-14 | 2-4 |
| Zaire Williams G | 30 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 6-13 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tristan Gross G | 16 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Kyle Cuffe Jr. G | 13 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4-5 | 3-3 |
| Bendji Pierre F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Pero Zubac, NJ Nganga, Jaydon Cole, Connor Serven, Braeden Carlsen, Alex Koch, Petras Padegimas, TJ Grant
| EKU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montavious Myrick F | 31 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Juan Cranford Jr. G | 28 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 7-18 | 4-9 |
| Jackson Holt G | 27 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| MJ Williams G | 25 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2-10 | 1-5 |
| Austin Ball F | 21 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 4-8 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Turner Buttry G | 20 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 3-9 | 1-4 |
| Jalen Cooper F | 20 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Tyler Jackson G | 18 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 5-10 | 0-3 |
| Yvens Paul F | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mason Miles G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rydge Beverly, Asa White, Trey Coles, Jayden Harris, Amarr Knox
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketEKU -4.5
ModelEKU -2.7
Model edgeMER +1.8
W MER covered
Total
Market163.5
Model157.9
Model edgeUnder 5.6
L Over
Projected score
MER 77.6 · EKU 80.3
MER 95 · EKU 83
Win probability
EKU 59%
1st half
Spread
EKU -1.5
MER -15.0
Total
74.0
91 points
Projected score
MER 36.3 · EKU 37.7
MER 53 · EKU 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenEKU -3.5
1 → EKU
CloseEKU -4.5
1 pt toward EKU
Total
Open163.5
no move
Close163.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MER +170 · EKU -200
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened EKU -3.5 · closed EKU -4.5 · moved 1 toward EKUmodel EKU -2.5
model EKU -2.5
Opened 163.5 · unchangedmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERlast 3 | 1-2 33% | 2-1 67% | 2-1 67% |
| EKUlast 3 | 0-3 0% | 0-3 0% | 2-1 67% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mercer
3 games played
Straight up
1-2
33% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg +5.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
TENN
TENNL 61-76
+13.5
9
vs
LIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@
WIN
WINL 69-105
−33.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
−6.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
+11.5
over 2under 1avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
E Kentucky
3 games played
Straight up
0-3
0% wins
Against the spread
0-3
0% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
10
vs
WKU
WKUL 79-87
−6.5
12
@
VAN
VANL 62-92
−1.5
18
@
KENT
KENTL 78-93
−4.5
covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
10
vsWKU
WKUL 79-87
+3.5
12
@VAN
VANL 62-92
−14.5
18
@KENT
KENTL 78-93
+9.5
over 2under 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mercer
1-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Winthrop69–105
- Wvs Lipscomb92–77
- L@ Tennessee61–76
A week or more of rest.
E Kentucky
0-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Kent State78–93
- L@ Vanderbilt62–92
- Lvs Western KY79–87
4 days since their last game.