American University Eagles at Maryland Terrapins: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETXFINITY Center · at Maryland

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: American and Maryland
AMER	This season	MD
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MD 82–64 · win probability MD 94%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MD has more of the edges

AMER 4, MD 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

AMER has played the 263rd-hardest schedule, MD the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

AMERBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AMER 15.6%, MD 18.6%. Forced: AMER 19.2%, MD 14.9%

MDBig

AMER offense vs MD defense

Offense 201st of 366 against a defense 34th, on the model’s ratings

MDBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: AMER 28.7, MD 36.4. Allowed: AMER 42.1, MD 35.8

MDBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AMER 26.9%, MD 33.8%. Defensive: AMER 70.6%, MD 70.9%

AMERSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AMER 96%, MD 47%. Transfers in: AMER 0, MD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

AMERSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: AMER 51.5 and allows 54.4; MD 48.1 and allows 54.4

MDSmall

MD offense vs AMER defense

Offense 63rd of 366 against a defense 122nd, on the model’s ratings

MDSmall

Home court

MD at home. This season: MD 0-0 at home, AMER 0-0 away

AMERSmall

Three-pointers

AMER hits 33.0% and allows 35.5%; MD hits 31.7% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 46.5% and 46.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: AMER plays 66.7 a game (289th fastest), MD 67.0 (281st). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MD -17.8	—
Total	—	145.5	—
Projected score	—	AMER 63.9 · MD 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MD -10.4	—
1H total	68.1	—
1H projected score	AMER 28.8 · MD 39.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AMER WWLLL	16-14	53%	8-7	—
MD LLWWW	16-17	48%	7-8	—

Venue/role: AMER away; MD home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
AMER UUOUO	15-15	50%	14-16
MD UUOUO	18-15	55%	12-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AMER	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
MD	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

American

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ UCF	No recent meeting
Dec 9	@ GW	L67–107LO
Dec 13	@ UMES	W78–60WO

Maryland

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ OSU	L62–82LU
Dec 9	vs MSU	L48–91LU
Dec 15	vs MORG	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

American

30 games played

Straight up

14-16

47% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1647%

L W L L W L W W W L L W W L L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W L W W L W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O O O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsDREX	W 75-73	-4.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	vsUMES	W 78-60	-10.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 18	@VCU	L 83-105	+19.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	@UVA	L 51-95	+27.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsL-MD	W 84-69	-8.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	@BU	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@COLG	L 62-64	+5.5	W +3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsHC	L 73-84	-8.5	L −19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsNAVY	W 65-51	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Jan 18	@ARMY	W 78-67	-4.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 21	vsCOLG	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	@HC	W 76-67	-4.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@L-MD	L 68-77	-4.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 31	vsLAF	L 65-67	-5.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsBUCK	L 59-60	-7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	@NAVY	L 73-82	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 155
Feb 11	@LEH	L 82-90	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 172
Feb 14	vsARMY	W 75-63	-9.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 18	@BUCK	W 75-57	-3.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	@LAF	W 75-61	-3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsLEH	L 73-78	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsBU	L 65-68	-3.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	@BU	L 73-75	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

DREX

W 75-73

−2.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

−2.5

UVA

L 51-95

−16.5

L-MD

W 84-69

+6.5

W 64-62

+3.5

COLG

L 62-64

+3.5

L 73-84

−19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

+16.5

ARMY

W 78-67

+6.5

COLG

W 70-66

+2.5

W 76-67

+4.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−13.5

LAF

L 65-67

−7.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−8.5

NAVY

L 73-82

−4.5

LEH

L 82-90

−9.5

ARMY

W 75-63

+2.5

BUCK

W 75-57

+14.5

LAF

W 75-61

+10.5

LEH

L 73-78

−12.5

L 65-68

−6.5

L 73-75

−0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

DREX

W 75-73

+10.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

+33.5

UVA

L 51-95

−7.5

L-MD

W 84-69

−1.5

W 64-62

−16.5

COLG

L 62-64

−22.5

L 73-84

+19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

−23.5

ARMY

W 78-67

−2.5

COLG

W 70-66

−10.5

W 76-67

+3.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−2.5

LAF

L 65-67

−10.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−22.5

NAVY

L 73-82

+20.5

LEH

L 82-90

+31.5

ARMY

W 75-63

−6.5

BUCK

W 75-57

−8.5

LAF

W 75-61

−5.5

LEH

L 73-78

+10.5

L 65-68

−7.5

L 73-75

+6.5

over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Maryland

33 games played

Straight up

12-21

36% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-15

55% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2136%

W L W W W W L L W L L L W L L L L W L L L L W W L L W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

L L L W L W L L W L W W W L L W L W L L L L W W L W W W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1555%

O U O O O U O O O O O U U U O U O O O U O U U O U O U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOPP	W 83-61	-28.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 7	vsGTWN	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsALCN	W 84-64	-29.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 15	@MARQ	W 89-82	+8.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsMSM	W 95-90	-17.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 24	vsUNLV	W 74-67	-2.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsGONZ	L 61-100	+14.5	L −24.5	157.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsALA	L 72-105	+14.5	L −18.5	166.5	O 177
Dec 2	vsWAG	W 89-63	-22.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 152
Dec 6	@IOWA	L 64-83	+10.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 147
Dec 13	vsMICH	L 83-101	+19.5	W +1.5	163.5	O 184
Dec 20	@UVA	L 72-80	+16.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 152
Dec 28	vsODU	W 73-58	-14.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 131
Jan 2	vsORE	L 54-64	+1.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 118
Jan 7	vsIU	L 66-84	+7.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 10	@UCLA	L 55-67	+13.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 122
Jan 13	@USC	L 71-88	+9.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 159
Jan 18	vsPSU	W 96-73	-1.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 169
Jan 21	@ILL	L 70-89	+18.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 24	@MSU	L 48-91	+18.5	L −24.5	141.5	U 139
Feb 1	vsPUR	L 63-93	+15.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 5	vsOSU	L 62-82	+6.5	L −13.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 8	@MINN	W 67-62	+10.5	W +15.5	138.5	U 129
Feb 11	vsIOWA	W 77-70	+10.5	W +17.5	138.5	O 147
Feb 15	@RUTG	L 57-68	+2.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 125
Feb 18	@NU	L 74-78	+7.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 21	vsWASH	W 64-60	+4.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 124
Feb 25	@NEB	L 61-74	+16.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 135
Mar 1	vsRUTG	L 65-69	-4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 134
Mar 4	@WIS	L 45-78	+14.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 123
Mar 8	vsILL	L 72-78	+14.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 150
Mar 10	vsORE	W 70-60	+4.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 130
Mar 11	vsIOWA	L 64-75	+11.5	W +0.5	133.5	O 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

−6.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

−9.5

MARQ

W 89-82

+15.5

MSM

W 95-90

−12.5

UNLV

W 74-67

+4.5

GONZ

L 61-100

−24.5

ALA

L 72-105

−18.5

WAG

W 89-63

+3.5

IOWA

L 64-83

−8.5

MICH

L 83-101

+1.5

UVA

L 72-80

+8.5

ODU

W 73-58

+0.5

ORE

L 54-64

−8.5

L 66-84

−10.5

UCLA

L 55-67

+1.5

USC

L 71-88

−7.5

PSU

W 96-73

+21.5

ILL

L 70-89

−0.5

MSU

L 48-91

−24.5

PUR

L 63-93

−14.5

OSU

L 62-82

−13.5

MINN

W 67-62

+15.5

IOWA

W 77-70

+17.5

RUTG

L 57-68

−8.5

L 74-78

+3.5

WASH

W 64-60

+8.5

NEB

L 61-74

+3.5

RUTG

L 65-69

−8.5

WIS

L 45-78

−18.5

ILL

L 72-78

+8.5

ORE

W 70-60

+14.5

IOWA

L 64-75

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

+4.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

+1.5

MARQ

W 89-82

+24.5

MSM

W 95-90

+39.5

UNLV

W 74-67

−23.5

GONZ

L 61-100

+3.5

ALA

L 72-105

+10.5

WAG

W 89-63

+8.5

IOWA

L 64-83

+9.5

MICH

L 83-101

+20.5

UVA

L 72-80

−1.5

ODU

W 73-58

−23.5

ORE

L 54-64

−28.5

L 66-84

+2.5

UCLA

L 55-67

−25.5

USC

L 71-88

+8.5

PSU

W 96-73

+20.5

ILL

L 70-89

+6.5

MSU

L 48-91

−2.5

PUR

L 63-93

+7.5

OSU

L 62-82

−6.5

MINN

W 67-62

−9.5

IOWA

W 77-70

+8.5

RUTG

L 57-68

−19.5

L 74-78

+9.5

WASH

W 64-60

−19.5

NEB

L 61-74

−7.5

RUTG

L 65-69

−9.5

WIS

L 45-78

−30.5

ILL

L 72-78

+4.5

ORE

W 70-60

−9.5

IOWA

L 64-75

+5.5

over 18under 15avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Maryland has the better starters

Position by position: American 0, Maryland 4, even 1

AmericanBetterMaryland

G W. Nausadis7.5 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 25

MDBig

G M. McNair TR16.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 84

G M. Collins13.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97

Even

G A. Mills12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

F G. Jones12.4 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 55

MDSmall

G B. Boswell TR6.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.1 ast Score 70

F M. Mayock8.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 36

MDBig

F P. Payne17.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 100

F J. Iturbe10.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 55

MDBig

F T. Buljan TR13.1 pts · 10.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 97

AmericanBetterMaryland

AMER offense201st of 366 · -6.3

MDBig

MD defense34th of 366 · +3.3

AMER defense122nd of 366 · -2.1

MDSmall

MD offense63rd of 366 · +2.4

Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players

MDBig

Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players

MDBig

Frontcourt+11.4 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

Even

Bench-2.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestAMER betterMD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

American

Guards

W. Nausadis23 minM. Collins22 minK. Sebastian22 minD. Hogans6 minJ. Anderson2 minM. Casey1 min

Forwards

G. Jones31 minM. Mayock29 minJ. Iturbe26 minC. McDonald18 minC. Eagan11 minN. JonesNew

Maryland

Guards

M. McNair37 min · TRA. Mills27 minB. Boswell27 min · TRD. Wagner24 min · TRM. Jabriel20 minG. Turkson11 min

Forwards

P. Payne27 minT. Buljan26 min · TRR. Jennings13 min · TRA. BrownNewB. OladotunNewA. TambedouNew

Centers

A. K'MedehoutoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AMER72.0 #242

MD69.7 #291

Points per possession

AMER1.08 #190

MD1.04 #270

Pace (possessions)

AMER66.7 #289

MD67.0 #281

Shooting

Effective FG%

AMER51.5 #169

MD48.1 #311

3-point %

AMER33.0 #235

MD31.7 #293

3-point attempt rate

AMER46.5 #39

MD46.9 #35

Free throw rate

AMER28.7 #335

MD36.4 #142

Possessions

Turnover rate

AMER15.6 #110

MD18.6 #300

Offensive rebound rate

AMER26.9 #299

MD33.8 #73

Assists per game

AMER12.5 #248

MD10.4 #351

Defense

Points allowed

AMER72.7 #124

MD76.6 #232

Points allowed per possession

AMER1.09 #200

MD1.14 #312

Opponent effective FG%

AMER54.4 #313

MD54.4 #312

Opponent 3-point %

AMER35.5 #283

MD36.3 #317

Turnovers forced

AMER19.2 #40

MD14.9 #294

Defensive rebound rate

AMER70.6 #127

MD70.9 #111

Steals per game

AMER7.3 #100

MD4.8 #345

Blocks per game

AMER1.4 #363

MD2.9 #237

AMER		MD
Scoring
72.0 #242	Points per game	69.7 #291
1.08 #190	Points per possession	1.04 #270
66.7 #289	Pace (possessions)	67.0 #281
Shooting
51.5 #169	Effective FG%	48.1 #311
33.0 #235	3-point %	31.7 #293
46.5 #39	3-point attempt rate	46.9 #35
28.7 #335	Free throw rate	36.4 #142
Possessions
15.6 #110	Turnover rate	18.6 #300
26.9 #299	Offensive rebound rate	33.8 #73
12.5 #248	Assists per game	10.4 #351
Defense
72.7 #124	Points allowed	76.6 #232
1.09 #200	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #312
54.4 #313	Opponent effective FG%	54.4 #312
35.5 #283	Opponent 3-point %	36.3 #317
19.2 #40	Turnovers forced	14.9 #294
70.6 #127	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #111
7.3 #100	Steals per game	4.8 #345
1.4 #363	Blocks per game	2.9 #237

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

American

14-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston U73–75
Lvs Boston U65–68
Lvs Lehigh73–78
W@ Lafayette75–61
W@ Bucknell75–57

A week or more of rest.

Maryland

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-17 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa64–75
Wvs Oregon70–60
Lvs Illinois72–78
L@ Wisconsin45–78
Lvs Rutgers65–69

A week or more of rest.

American @ Maryland

What could decide it: MD has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

American

Maryland

Maryland has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

American

Maryland