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NCAAB · Fri, Dec 4

Harvard @ Duke

Cameron Indoor Stadium · at Duke
#136HARVHarvard
@
#3DUKEDuke AP #2
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HARVThis seasonDUKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DUKE 87–53 · win probability DUKE 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 140.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DUKE has more of the edges

HARV 1, DUKE 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DUKEBig
HARV offense vs DUKE defense
Offense 216th of 366 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings
DUKEBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HARV 26.8%, DUKE 38.4%. Defensive: HARV 71.8%, DUKE 74.8%
DUKEBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: HARV 25.7, DUKE 38.2. Allowed: HARV 26.6, DUKE 22.8
Context
Schedule so far
HARV has played the 153rd-hardest schedule, DUKE the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DUKESmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: HARV 53.2 and allows 50.4; DUKE 56.6 and allows 46.2
DUKESmall
DUKE offense vs HARV defense
Offense 11th of 366 against a defense 94th, on the model’s ratings
HARVSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HARV 81%, DUKE 47%. Transfers in: HARV 0, DUKE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
DUKESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HARV 17.5%, DUKE 16.0%. Forced: HARV 17.1%, DUKE 17.2%
DUKESmall
Home court
DUKE at home. This season: DUKE 0-0 at home, HARV 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
HARV hits 34.7% and allows 32.6%; DUKE hits 34.7% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 40.2% and 43.5% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: HARV plays 64.7 a game (350th fastest), DUKE 66.8 (285th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDUKE -33.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model140.2
Model edge—
Projected score
HARV 53.3 · DUKE 86.9
Win probability
DUKE 100%
1st half
Spread
DUKE -19.8
Total
65.6
Projected score
HARV 22.9 · DUKE 42.7
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Duke has the better starters

Position by position: Harvard 0, Duke 4, even 1
HarvardBetterDuke
G T. Barbour13.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
DUKESmall
G J. Blackwell TR19.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 97
G R. Hinton17 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 88
Even
G C. Foster8.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76
G B. Eisendrath5.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 16
DUKEBig
G J. Theodosiou TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
G A. Hunt6.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
DUKEBig
G C. Boozer7.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 3 ast Score 85
G F. Mannino1.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 36
DUKESmall
F D. Sarr6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 52
HarvardBetterDuke
HARV offense216th of 366 · -6.6
DUKEBig
DUKE defense3rd of 366 · +11.4
HARV defense94th of 366 · -0.4
DUKESmall
DUKE offense11th of 366 · +10.1
Backcourt-0.7 · 5 players
DUKEBig
Backcourt+9.2 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
Bench-2.0 · 5 players
DUKEBig
Bench+7.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestHARV betterDUKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Harvard
Guards
T. Barbour34 minR. Hinton34 minB. Eisendrath29 minA. Hunt23 minF. Mannino9 minX. Nesbitt5 min
Forwards
R. Sullivan7 minK. Parrish6 minL. Ace-Nasteski6 minA. Dror2 minT. BattiesNewA. TouomouNew
Centers
J. AdigunNew
Duke
Guards
J. Blackwell34 min · TRC. Foster25 minJ. Theodosiou23 min · TRC. Boozer23 minB. DavisNewD. RippeyNew
Forwards
D. Sarr24 minD. Scharnowski22 min · TRS. WilkinsNewC. WilliamsNew
Centers
P. Ngongba22 minM. MeyerNewJ. Boumtje BoumtjeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HARVDUKE
Scoring
69.8 #290Points per game81.6 #36
1.08 #184Points per possession1.23 #4
64.7 #350Pace (possessions)66.8 #285
Shooting
53.2 #94Effective FG%56.6 #13
34.7 #1353-point %34.7 #133
40.2 #1673-point attempt rate43.5 #100
25.7 #359Free throw rate38.2 #97
Possessions
17.5 #236Turnover rate16.0 #139
26.8 #302Offensive rebound rate38.4 #4
14.2 #129Assists per game16.7 #32
Defense
67.3 #22Points allowed63.6 #3
1.04 #70Points allowed per possession0.95 #2
50.4 #122Opponent effective FG%46.2 #13
32.6 #94Opponent 3-point %30.6 #27
17.1 #147Turnovers forced17.2 #133
71.8 #69Defensive rebound rate74.8 #10
7.1 #111Steals per game7.4 #92
3.7 #109Blocks per game3.4 #164
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Harvard

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Penn60–62
  • Wvs Columbia81–71
  • L@ Penn61–64
  • W@ Princeton58–56
  • W@ Cornell73–54

A week or more of rest.

Duke

35-3 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn72–73
  • Wvs St John's80–75
  • Wvs TCU81–58
  • Wvs Siena71–65
  • Wvs Virginia74–70

A week or more of rest.