Jenny Craig Pavilion · Neutral site
Closing line
WIS -6.5✓ WIS covered by 14.5
WIS -6.5✓ WIS covered by 14.5Closing total166.5Over by 20.5
 PROV | This season | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 3-3 | ATS | 2-3 |
| 5-1 | O/U | 4-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PROV 82–87 WIS · ✓ WIS (67%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | 32 | 51 | 83 |
| WIS | 51 | 53 | 104 |
1st half: PROV 32, WIS 51 (WIS by 19). The model had WIS by 2.8 and a total of 79.1 (actual 83).
Team stats
| PROV | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-67 45% | Field goals | 37-77 48% |
| 11-28 39% | 3-pointers | 14-40 35% |
| 12-15 80% | Free throws | 16-24 67% |
| 36 7 off | Rebounds | 43 14 off |
| 14 | Assists | 21 |
| 5 | Steals | 10 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 32 |
Players
| PROV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Vaaks G | 30 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 4-10 | 3-7 |
| Jason Edwards G | 26 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 8-15 | 3-7 |
| Jaylin Sellers G | 24 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse F | 22 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Mela G | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Corey Floyd Jr. G | 30 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 4-12 | 1-5 |
| Jamier Jones G | 22 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 3-7 | 1-1 |
| Cole Hargrove F | 18 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Harrell G | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Nilavan Daniels G | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Rich Barron, Daquan Davis, Jack Williams, Peteris Pinnis, Duncan Powell
| WIS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Boyd G | 32 | 36 | 7 | 7 | 15-25 | 4-9 |
| Austin Rapp F | 31 | 20 | 8 | 1 | 7-15 | 5-11 |
| Nolan Winter F | 26 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 7-9 | 0-1 |
| Andrew Rohde G | 25 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-3 |
| John Blackwell G | 23 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2-10 | 1-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jack Janicki G | 20 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Braeden Carrington G | 16 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Aleksas Bieliauskas F | 12 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Will Garlock F | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Hayden Jones G | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jack Robison G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Riccardo Greppi F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Isaac Gard G | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Zach Kinziger, Elijah Gray
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketWIS -6.5
ModelWIS -4.9
Model edgePROV +1.6
L WIS covered
Total
Market166.5
Model169.1
Model edgeOver 2.6
W Over
Projected score
PROV 82.1 · WIS 87
PROV 83 · WIS 104
Win probability
WIS 67%
1st half
Spread
WIS -2.8
WIS -19.0
Total
79.1
83 points
Projected score
PROV 38.2 · WIS 41
PROV 32 · WIS 51
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPROV -6.5
13 → WIS
CloseWIS -6.5
13 pts toward WIS
Total
Open167.5
▼ 1
Close166.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
PROV +200 · WIS -245
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PROV -6.5 · closed WIS -6.5 · moved 13 toward WISmodel WIS -5
model WIS -5
Opened 167.5 · closed 166.5 · moved 1 downmodel 169
model 169
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROVlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 3-3 50% | 5-1 83% |
| WISlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 2-3 40% | 4-1 80% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
PROV 2–0 WISPROV leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · PROV has won the last 2 meetings · PROV 2-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2023-24 | WIS 59 @ PROV 72 | PROV +1.5 | PROV W |
| Nov 15, 2021-22 | PROV 63 @ WIS 58 | WIS -5.5 | PROV W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Providence
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-1
83% overs · avg +13.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
HC
HCW 89-79
−13.5
8
vs
VT
VTL 101-107
−8.5
11
vs
PENN
PENNW 106-81
+5.5
14
@
COLO
COLOL 88-97
−7.5
18
vs
UNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vs
PSU
PSUW 77-65
+8.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
+15.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
+50.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+14.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
+21.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
−23.5
over 5under 1avg +13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Wisconsin
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-1
80% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
CAM
CAMW 96-64
+11.5
7
vs
NIU
NIUW 97-72
−3.5
11
vs
BALL
BALLW 86-55
+4.5
17
vs
SIUE
SIUEW 94-69
−0.5
21
@
BYU
BYUL 70-98
−23.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAM
CAMW 96-64
+8.5
7
vsNIU
NIUW 97-72
+11.5
11
vsBALL
BALLW 86-55
−15.5
17
vsSIUE
SIUEW 94-69
+16.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 70-98
+2.5
over 4under 1avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Providence
4-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Penn State77–65
- Wvs New Hampshire98–66
- L@ Colorado88–97
- Wvs Penn106–81
- Lvs Virginia Tech101–107
5 days since their last game.
Wisconsin
4-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ BYU70–98
- Wvs SIUE94–69
- Wvs Ball State86–55
- Wvs N Illinois97–72
- Wvs Campbell96–64
6 days since their last game.