Michelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
ISU -2.5✓ SJU covered by 1.5
ISU -2.5✓ SJU covered by 1.5Closing total158.5Over by 6.5
| ISU | This season | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 3-1 |
| 3-1 | ATS | 3-1 |
| 3-1 | O/U | 2-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ISU 80–82 SJU · ✗ SJU (58%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISU | 43 | 40 | 83 |
| SJU | 45 | 37 | 82 |
1st half: ISU 43, SJU 45 (SJU by 2). The model had SJU by 1.2 and a total of 75.6 (actual 88).
Team stats
| ISU | SJU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-62 44% | Field goals | 26-60 43% |
| 9-22 41% | 3-pointers | 7-20 35% |
| 20-25 80% | Free throws | 23-30 77% |
| 38 17 off | Rebounds | 36 15 off |
| 14 | Assists | 15 |
| 3 | Steals | 4 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 24 | Fouls | 21 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| ISU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Jefferson F | 36 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 5-14 | 1-2 |
| Tamin Lipsey G | 34 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 5-17 | 2-6 |
| Milan Momcilovic F | 33 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 8-13 | 5-9 |
| Blake Buchanan F | 22 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Killyan Toure G | 21 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nate Heise G | 25 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| Dominykas Pleta F | 12 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jamarion Batemon G | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Dominick Nelson G | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Eric Mulder F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Anthony Rise, Mason Williams, Cade Kelderman, Xzavion Mitchell
| SJU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Hopkins F | 33 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 3-10 | 0-3 |
| Zuby Ejiofor F | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Oziyah Sellers G | 28 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 6-11 | 5-6 |
| Joson Sanon G | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2-10 | 1-4 |
| Dylan Darling G | 24 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dillon Mitchell F | 31 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Ian Jackson G | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Ruben Prey F | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Lefteris Liotopoulos G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Fotis Konstantinidis, Casper Pohto, Imran Suljanovic, Kelvin Odih, Sadiku Ibine Ayo, Handje Tamba
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketISU -2.5
ModelSJU -2.3
Model edgeSJU +4.8
W SJU covered
Total
Market158.5
Model161.3
Model edgeOver 2.8
W Over
Projected score
ISU 79.5 · SJU 81.8
ISU 83 · SJU 82
Win probability
SJU 58%
1st half
Spread
SJU -1.2
SJU -2.0
Total
75.6
88 points
Projected score
ISU 37.2 · SJU 38.4
ISU 43 · SJU 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenISU -1.5
1 → ISU
CloseISU -2.5
1 pt toward ISU
Total
Open160.5
▼ 2
Close158.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
ISU -150 · SJU +130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ISU -1.5 · closed ISU -2.5 · moved 1 toward ISUmodel SJU -2.5
model SJU -2.5
Opened 160.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 2 downmodel 161.5
model 161.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISUlast 4 | 4-0 100% | 3-1 75% | 3-1 75% |
| SJUlast 4 | 3-1 75% | 3-1 75% | 2-2 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
ISU 1–0 SJUISU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ISU 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2022-23 | SJU 60 @ ISU 71 | ISU -5.5 | ISU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Iowa State
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-1
75% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-1
75% overs · avg +10.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
FDU
FDUW 88-50
+0.5
6
vs
GRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+6.5
10
vs
MSST
MSSTW 96-80
+10.5
17
vs
STO
STOW 96-57
−1.5
covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFDU
FDUW 88-50
−9.5
6
vsGRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+19.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 96-80
+25.5
17
vsSTO
STOW 96-57
+6.5
over 3under 1avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
St John's
4 games played
Straight up
3-1
75% wins
Against the spread
3-1
75% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
QUIN
QUINW 108-74
+7.5
8
vs
ALA
ALAL 96-103
−11.5
15
vs
W&M
W&MW 93-60
+4.5
20
vs
BUCK
BUCKW 97-49
+19.5
covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsQUIN
QUINW 108-74
+25.5
8
vsALA
ALAL 96-103
+26.5
15
vsW&M
W&MW 93-60
−26.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-49
−12.5
over 2under 2avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Iowa State
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Stonehill96–57
- Wvs Mississippi St96–80
- Wvs Grambling102–62
- Wvs FDU88–50
A week or more of rest.
St John's
3-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bucknell97–49
- Wvs William & Mary93–60
- Lvs Alabama96–103
- Wvs Quinnipiac108–74
4 days since their last game.