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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

85 games · 2023 · Week 2 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games85100%By halftime22%In Q31619%In Q42125%In OT22%Stayed under4452%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands1012%Over cashed78%Leader lost the game56%
49% went over. Of the 41 overs, 5% had cashed by halftime and 44% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 16% of games.

All 85 games

2023 · Week 2 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
ALB @ HAW
2023 · Week 2
 HAW -11 58.5 17344451 U Push
Late cover flip
 20–31
2023 · Week 2
 USC -28.5 70.5 21525266 U USC Q2 10–56
2023 · Week 2
 AUB -5 55.5 3171724 U CAL Q1 14–10
2023 · Week 2
 OKST -2.5 53.5 7253242 U OKST Q4 27–15
UCD @ ORST
2023 · Week 2
 ORST -24 57 14384862 Q4 ORST Q2 7–55
EWU @ FRES
2023 · Week 2
 FRES -31.5 63.5 1017384865 OT EWU Q1
Late over
 31–34
2023 · Week 2
 FSU -31 54 14346279 Q3 FSU Q3 13–66
2023 · Week 2
 AFA -13.5 36.5 03616 U SHSU Q1 13–3
NICH @ TCU
2023 · Week 2
 TCU -41.5 59.5 14273047 U NICH Q1 6–41
LAM @ ULM
2023 · Week 2
 ULM -26 48.5 7212138 U LAM Q1 14–24
TNTC @ UNM
2023 · Week 2
 UNM -16 51.5 14385966 Q3 UNM Q2 10–56
IDST @ USU
2023 · Week 2
 USU -24 61 146586106 Q2 USU Q2 28–78
GRAM @ LSU
2023 · Week 2
 LSU -56.5 61.5 24526682 Q3 LSU Q4 10–72
2023 · Week 2
 WIS -5 58 10334653 U WSU Q1 22–31
MCN @ FLA
2023 · Week 2
 FLA -48.5 55.5 13264256 Q4 MCN Q1
Late cover flip Late over
 7–49
2023 · Week 2
 MD -24.5 50 14233158 Q4 CLT Q1
Late over
 20–38
2023 · Week 2
 MINN -19.5 48 0162631 U EMU Q1 6–25
2023 · Week 2
 MSST -9 60 1421354855 U ARIZ Q2 24–31
2023 · Week 2
 RUTG -7.5 43.5 7131343 U RUTG Q2 7–36
FUR @ SC
2023 · Week 2
 SC -18 52.5 14415468 Q3 SC Q3 21–47
2023 · Week 2
 UCLA -13 49 14384545 U UCLA Q2 35–10
2023 · Week 2
 ALA -7 53.5 3192958 Q4 TEX Q1 34–24
2023 · Week 2
 ORE -4.5 70 22314568 U ORE Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 38–30
2023 · Week 2
 CCU -13.5 61 13193246 U CCU Q3 16–30
2023 · Week 2
 GAST -3 54.5 7212849 U GAST Q1 14–35
NWST @ LT
2023 · Week 2
 LT -23 58.5 17457272 Q3 LT Q3 21–51
2023 · Week 2
 MIZ -21 47.5 3172642 U MTSU Q1 19–23
HCU @ WKU
2023 · Week 2
 WKU -41.5 64.5 24455274 Q4 HCU Q1 22–52
2023 · Week 2
 UCF -3 58.5 10191934 U BOIS Q1
Late cover flip
 18–16
2023 · Week 2
 HOU -7.5 51 2135355684 Q4 RICE Q1
Late over
 41–43
FAMU @ USF
2023 · Week 2
 USF -20 63 21384862 U FAMU Q1 24–38
2023 · Week 2
 MEM -21 57.5 3273440 U MEM Q3 37–3
IDHO @ NEV
2023 · Week 2
 IDHO -5.5 51 17233339 U IDHO Q1 33–6
2023 · Week 2
 UNT -11 53 17376585 Q3 FIU Q1 39–46
2023 · Week 2
 PITT -6.5 44.5 17273448 Q4 CIN Q1 27–21
2023 · Week 2
 OU -16 70 10171739 U OU Q4 11–28
LAF @ DUKE
2023 · Week 2
 DUKE -42.5 49 14284249 P LAF Q1 7–42
2023 · Week 2
 LIB -9 54.5 14405050 U LIB Q3 17–33
DUQ @ WVU
2023 · Week 2
 WVU -38.5 55.5 14455973 Q3 WVU Q4
Late cover flip
 17–56
2023 · Week 2
 GASO -7 63 14506484 Q3 GASO Q4 35–49
2023 · Week 2
 FAU -3.5 61 0172427 U OHIO Q1 17–10
2023 · Week 2
 UL -6.5 51 17344869 Q4 ODU Q1 31–38
MORG @ AKR
2023 · Week 2
 AKR -25 46 3243845 U MORG Q1
Lead lost
 21–24
FOR @ BUFF
2023 · Week 2
 BUFF -23.5 54.5 17415677 Q3 FOR Q1
Lead lost
 40–37
2023 · Week 2
 UNC -18 58 020375474 OT APP Q1
Late over
 34–40
2023 · Week 2
 WASH -33 66 17253953 U Push
Late cover flip
 10–43
APSU @ TENN
2023 · Week 2
 TENN -48 65.5 6192943 U APSU Q1 13–30
SELA @ USA
2023 · Week 2
 USA -24 59.5 0142852 U SELA Q1 17–35
2023 · Week 2
 ARK -38 57.5 10202734 U KENT Q1 6–28
2023 · Week 2
 MRSH -3 43.5 0202344 Q4 MRSH Q4 31–13
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 85

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 40
Q2 18% 15
Q3 15% 13
Q4 15% 13
OT 0% 0
Push 5% 4
The team leading at halftime won 88% and covered 58% of 76 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 59% of 82 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over18100% 18
1–3367% 2
4–7875% 6
8–10743% 3
11–14863% 5
15–17633% 2
18–21450% 2
22+3110% 3
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.