1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. CP @ ARIZ
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

Cal Poly Mustangs at Arizona Wildcats

McKale Center at ALKEME Arena · at Arizona
#164CPCal Poly
@
#5ARIZArizona AP #5
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CPThis seasonARIZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARIZ 98–67 · win probability ARIZ 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 164.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARIZ has more of the edges

CP 1, ARIZ 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARIZBig
ARIZ offense vs CP defense
Offense 4th of 366 against a defense 343rd, on the model’s ratings
ARIZBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: CP 51.5 and allows 53.8; ARIZ 54.7 and allows 45.3
ARIZBig
Three-pointers
CP hits 33.0% and allows 34.7%; ARIZ hits 36.6% and allows 31.4%. Threes are 52.6% and 26.4% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
CP has played the 170th-hardest schedule, ARIZ the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ARIZBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CP 30.0%, ARIZ 38.4%. Defensive: CP 70.4%, ARIZ 73.1%
ARIZBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: CP 34.9, ARIZ 43.9. Allowed: CP 34.1, ARIZ 27.1
ARIZBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CP 19.8%, ARIZ 15.1%. Forced: CP 16.3%, ARIZ 16.2%
CPBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CP 100%, ARIZ 29%. Transfers in: CP 0, ARIZ 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
ARIZSmall
CP offense vs ARIZ defense
Offense 91st of 366 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
ARIZSmall
Home court
ARIZ at home. This season: ARIZ 0-0 at home, CP 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 74 possessions: CP plays 76.4 a game (1st fastest), ARIZ 71.6 (49th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARIZ -31.8—
Total—164.8—
Projected score—CP 66.5 · ARIZ 98.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARIZ -18.8—
1H total77.0—
1H projected scoreCP 29.1 · ARIZ 47.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arizona has the better starters

Position by position: Cal Poly 1, Arizona 3, even 1
Cal PolyBetterArizona
G H. Mousa20.3 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 96
CPBig
G D. Dixon TR6.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 55
G C. Ward14.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 58
Even
G J. Mandaquit TR5.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 62
G G. Vasilic7.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21
ARIZBig
F I. Kharchenkov10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83
G J. Davis5.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
ARIZBig
F R. Godfrey TR12 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 96
G K. Elliott5.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 33
ARIZBig
C M. Krivas10.4 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 95
Cal PolyBetterArizona
CP offense91st of 366 · -0.2
ARIZSmall
ARIZ defense7th of 366 · +8.8
CP defense343rd of 366 · -9.2
ARIZBig
ARIZ offense4th of 366 · +11.0
Backcourt-1.4 · 5 players
ARIZSmall
Backcourt-0.3 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+10.8 · 3 players
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
ARIZBig
Bench-0.1 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestCP betterARIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Cal Poly
Guards
H. Mousa32 minC. Ward30 minG. Vasilic23 minJ. Davis21 minK. Elliott18 minJ. Esso Essis17 min
Forwards
A. Goode16 minT. Plumtree13 minA. Assran13 minA. Price6 minB. FreemanNew
Arizona
Guards
D. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Mandaquit20 min · TRA. Arnold2 minJ. Cook1 minB. JamesNewC. HolmesNew
Forwards
I. Kharchenkov28 minR. Godfrey25 min · TRE. Otten15 min · TRU. Jarusevicius11 min · TRM. MawutNewE. AiyamenkhueNew
Centers
M. Krivas25 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CPARIZ
Scoring
81.3 #42Points per game86.2 #11
1.06 #222Points per possession1.21 #11
76.4 #1Pace (possessions)71.6 #49
Shooting
51.5 #170Effective FG%54.7 #45
33.0 #2283-point %36.6 #37
52.6 #53-point attempt rate26.4 #363
34.9 #182Free throw rate43.9 #11
Possessions
19.8 #345Turnover rate15.1 #76
30.0 #202Offensive rebound rate38.4 #5
13.3 #194Assists per game16.4 #38
Defense
85.3 #360Points allowed69.4 #53
1.12 #274Points allowed per possession0.97 #6
53.8 #292Opponent effective FG%45.3 #4
34.7 #231Opponent 3-point %31.4 #42
16.3 #203Turnovers forced16.2 #209
70.4 #141Defensive rebound rate73.1 #34
6.4 #188Steals per game7.4 #95
2.2 #337Blocks per game4.2 #55
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cal Poly

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UC San Diego69–72
  • Wvs Bakersfield108–76
  • L@ UC Irvine85–107
  • L@ UC San Diego64–80
  • Wvs Long Beach St102–92

A week or more of rest.

Arizona

36-3 in 2025-26 overall · 19-2 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan73–91
  • Wvs Purdue79–64
  • Wvs Arkansas109–88
  • Wvs Utah State78–66
  • Wvs Long Island92–58

A week or more of rest.