Enterprise Center · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
MIA -1.5✓ MIA covered by 12.5
MIA -1.5✓ MIA covered by 12.5Closing total144.5Over by 1.5
 MIZ | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20-12 | Record | 25-8 |
| 14-18 | ATS | 18-15 |
| 15-17 | O/U | 19-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIZ 76–77 MIA · ✓ MIA (54%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 26 | 40 | 66 |
| MIA | 27 | 53 | 80 |
1st half: MIZ 26, MIA 27 (MIA by 1). The model had MIA by 0.5 and a total of 71.1 (actual 53).
Team stats
| MIZ | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-57 35% | Field goals | 26-60 43% |
| 10-28 36% | 3-pointers | 11-24 46% |
| 16-18 89% | Free throws | 17-29 59% |
| 30 7 off | Rebounds | 46 16 off |
| 16 | Assists | 19 |
| 5 | Steals | 7 |
| 5 | Blocks | 2 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 21 | Fouls | 16 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| MIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Mitchell Jr. G | 37 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 4-10 | 3-4 |
| Jayden Stone G | 34 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 6-10 | 3-7 |
| Trent Pierce G | 26 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2-9 | 1-6 |
| Shawn Phillips Jr. C | 26 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| T.O. Barrett F | 15 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-7 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Anthony Robinson II G | 29 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| Jacob Crews G | 20 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-5 |
| Trent Burns C | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Luke Northweather F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nicholas Randall F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Aaron Rowe, Sebastian Mack, Jevon Porter, Annor Boateng
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Reneau F | 37 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 7-16 | 2-4 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 37 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 7-15 | 0-2 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 36 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Tre Donaldson G | 34 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 6-11 | 5-7 |
| Dante Allen G | 26 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tru Washington G | 24 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-4 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Timo Malovec F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Treyvon Maddox, Marcus Allen, Jordyn Kee, Salih Altuntas, JJ Laboy
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIA -1.5
ModelMIA -1.1
Model edgeMIZ +0.4
L MIA covered
Total
Market144.5
Model152.1
Model edgeOver 7.6
W Over
Projected score
MIZ 75.5 · MIA 76.6
MIZ 66 · MIA 80
Win probability
MIA 54%
1st half
Spread
MIA -0.5
MIA -1.0
Total
71.1
53 points
Projected score
MIZ 35.3 · MIA 35.8
MIZ 26 · MIA 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -2.5
1 → MIZ
CloseMIA -1.5
1 pt toward MIZ
Total
Open150.5
▼ 6
Close144.5
Down 6 since the open
Moneyline
MIZ +105 · MIA -125
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -2.5 · closed MIA -1.5 · moved 1 toward MIZmodel MIA -1
model MIA -1
Opened 150.5 · closed 144.5 · moved 6 downmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| MIA | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Missouri
32 games played
Straight up
20-12
63% wins
Against the spread
14-18
44% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-17
47% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ HOW | W 88-67 | -20.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 7 | vs SEMO | W 89-84 | -25.5 | L −20.5 | 157.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 9 | vs VMI | W 106-68 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 12 | vs MINN | W 83-60 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 17 | vs PV | W 91-73 | -35.5 | L −17.5 | 166.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 20 | vs SDAK | W 102-68 | -24.5 | W +9.5 | 171.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs SCST | W 98-66 | -34.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs CLE | W 86-59 | -31.5 | L −4.5 | 170.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 2 | @ ND | L 71-76 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 7 | vs KU | L 60-80 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 11 | vs ALST | W 85-77 | -26.5 | L −18.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | vs BCU | W 82-60 | -20.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 22 | vs ILL | L 48-91 | +8.5 | L −34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | vs FLA | W 76-74 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 7 | @ UK | W 73-68 | +12.5 | W +17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | @ MISS | L 69-76 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 14 | vs AUB | W 84-74 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 17 | @ LSU | L 70-78 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 20 | vs UGA | L 72-74 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 163.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 24 | vs OU | W 88-87 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 151.5 | O 175 |
| Jan 27 | @ ALA | L 64-90 | +10.5 | L −15.5 | 167.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 31 | vs MSST | W 84-79 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | @ SC | W 78-59 | -3.5 | W +15.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 11 | @ TA&M | W 86-85 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 14 | vs TEX | L 68-85 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 18 | vs VAN | W 81-80 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 21 | @ ARK | L 86-94 | +9.5 | W +1.5 | 159.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 24 | vs TENN | W 73-69 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 28 | @MSST | W 88-64 | -1.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Mar 3 | @OU | L 64-80 | -1.5 | L −17.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Mar 7 | vsARK | L 84-88 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Mar 12 | vsUK | L 72-78 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 148.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
+0.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
−20.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+14.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
+15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−17.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
+9.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
−2.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−4.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
−6.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−14.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
−18.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
+1.5
22
vsILL
ILLL 48-91
−34.5
3
vsFLA
FLAW 76-74
+9.5
7
@UK
UKW 73-68
+17.5
10
@MISS
MISSL 69-76
−5.5
14
vsAUB
AUBW 84-74
+11.5
17
@LSU
LSUL 70-78
−6.5
20
vsUGA
UGAL 72-74
−3.5
24
vsOU
OUW 88-87
−3.5
27
@ALA
ALAL 64-90
−15.5
31
vsMSST
MSSTW 84-79
−1.5
7
@SC
SCW 78-59
+15.5
11
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-85
+8.5
14
vsTEX
TEXL 68-85
−19.5
18
vsVAN
VANW 81-80
+4.5
21
@ARK
ARKL 86-94
+1.5
24
vsTENN
TENNW 73-69
+7.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 88-64
+22.5
3
@OU
OUL 64-80
−17.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 84-88
−6.5
12
vsUK
UKL 72-78
−3.5
covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
−3.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
+15.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+12.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
−15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−2.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
−1.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
+3.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−25.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
+0.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−10.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
+6.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
−4.5
22
vsILL
ILLL 48-91
−14.5
3
vsFLA
FLAW 76-74
−4.5
7
@UK
UKW 73-68
−9.5
10
@MISS
MISSL 69-76
+1.5
14
vsAUB
AUBW 84-74
+4.5
17
@LSU
LSUL 70-78
−0.5
20
vsUGA
UGAL 72-74
−17.5
24
vsOU
OUW 88-87
+23.5
27
@ALA
ALAL 64-90
−13.5
31
vsMSST
MSSTW 84-79
+16.5
7
@SC
SCW 78-59
−10.5
11
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-85
+10.5
14
vsTEX
TEXL 68-85
+2.5
18
vsVAN
VANW 81-80
+6.5
21
@ARK
ARKL 86-94
+20.5
24
vsTENN
TENNW 73-69
−1.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 88-64
−2.5
3
@OU
OUL 64-80
−9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 84-88
+8.5
12
vsUK
UKL 72-78
+1.5
over 15under 17avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miami
33 games played
Straight up
25-8
76% wins
Against the spread
18-15
55% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-14
58% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vsBCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vsFLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vs PITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 7 | @ WAKE | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | vs GT | W 91-81 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 13 | @ND | W 81-69 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ CLEM | L 59-69 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 20 | vs FSU | L 63-65 | -10.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ SYR | W 85-76 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 28 | vs STAN | W 79-70 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 31 | vs CAL | L 85-86 | -11.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 7 | @ BC | W 74-68 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Feb 10 | vs UNC | W 75-66 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 14 | @ NCSU | W 77-76 | +5.5 | W +6.5 | 157.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | vs VT | W 67-66 | -8.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 21 | @ UVA | L 83-86 | +7.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | @FSU | W 83-73 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | vsBC | W 76-54 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 4 | @ SMU | W 77-69 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 156.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 7 | vs LOU | L 89-92 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 12 | vsLOU | W 78-73 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | U 151 |
| Mar 13 | vsUVA | L 62-84 | +3.5 | L −18.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+5.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
−5.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−5.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−12.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+7.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
−0.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
−12.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
−2.5
10
vsUNC
UNCW 75-66
+7.5
14
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
+6.5
17
vsVT
VTW 67-66
−7.5
21
@UVA
UVAL 83-86
+4.5
24
@FSU
FSUW 83-73
+7.5
28
vsBC
BCW 76-54
+6.5
4
@SMU
SMUW 77-69
+9.5
7
vsLOU
LOUL 89-92
−4.5
12
vsLOU
LOUW 78-73
+6.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 62-84
−18.5
covered 18didn’t cover 15avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+0.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
+15.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−15.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−35.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+11.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
+1.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
+22.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
+0.5
10
vsUNC
UNCW 75-66
−15.5
14
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
−4.5
17
vsVT
VTW 67-66
−15.5
21
@UVA
UVAL 83-86
+23.5
24
@FSU
FSUW 83-73
+3.5
28
vsBC
BCW 76-54
−13.5
4
@SMU
SMUW 77-69
−10.5
7
vsLOU
LOUL 89-92
+25.5
12
vsLOU
LOUW 78-73
−2.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 62-84
−0.5
over 19under 14avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Missouri
20-12 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Kentucky72–78
- Lvs Arkansas84–88
- L@ Oklahoma64–80
- W@ Mississippi St88–64
- Wvs Tennessee73–69
A week or more of rest.
Miami
25-8 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Virginia62–84
- Wvs Louisville78–73
- Lvs Louisville89–92
- W@ SMU77–69
- Wvs Boston College76–54
A week or more of rest.