Jeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center · at New Haven
Closing line
PSU -18.5✓ PSU covered by 25.5
PSU -18.5✓ PSU covered by 25.5Closing total143.5Under by 13.5
| PSU | This season | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | ATS | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | O/U | 0-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PSU 79–65 NHVN · ✓ PSU (87%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 41 | 46 | 87 |
| NHVN | 21 | 22 | 43 |
1st half: PSU 41, NHVN 21 (PSU by 20). The model had PSU by 8.2 and a total of 67.4 (actual 62).
Team stats
| PSU | NHVN | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-61 52% | Field goals | 17-45 38% |
| 11-25 44% | 3-pointers | 4-19 21% |
| 12-16 75% | Free throws | 5-8 63% |
| 36 12 off | Rebounds | 24 6 off |
| 17 | Assists | 9 |
| 7 | Steals | 2 |
| 0 | Blocks | 2 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 19 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| PSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayden Mingo G | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 7-13 | 2-5 |
| Melih Tunca G | 25 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Josh Reed F | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-5 |
| Eli Rice G | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Sasa Ciani F | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Freddie Dilione V G | 27 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Dominick Stewart G | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 6-8 | 6-8 |
| Tibor Mirtic F | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Mason Blackwood F | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Ivan Juric F | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Chris Lotito F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Justin Houser C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Reggie Grodin
| NHVN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabri Fitzpatrick G | 35 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 5-13 | 1-6 |
| Andre Pasha F | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Najimi George G | 25 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Stefano Faloppa F | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Maison Adeleye G | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zoumana Traore F | 20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Vere Anthony G | 20 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Teshaun Steele F | 18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Aidan Losiewicz G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kyle Kearson G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dior Kennedy G | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Kheni Briggs G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Owen Hotaling, Justice Hanna, Nathan Narcisse, Timothy Coleman, John Oladipo, Dominick LaDuca, Tristan Burth, Jagger Bascombe, Matiss Ogle
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPSU -18.5
ModelPSU -13.2
Model edgeNHVN +5.3
L PSU covered
Total
Market143.5
Model143.8
Model edgeOver 0.3
L Under
Projected score
PSU 78.5 · NHVN 65.3
PSU 87 · NHVN 43
Win probability
PSU 87%
1st half
Spread
PSU -8.2
PSU -20.0
Total
67.4
62 points
Projected score
PSU 37.8 · NHVN 29.6
PSU 41 · NHVN 21
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPSU -15.5
3 → PSU
ClosePSU -18.5
3 pts toward PSU
Total
Open145.5
▼ 2
Close143.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
PSU -3000 · NHVN +1200
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PSU -15.5 · closed PSU -18.5 · moved 3 toward PSUmodel PSU -13
model PSU -13
Opened 145.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 2 downmodel 144
model 144
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSUlast 1 | 1-0 100% | 0-1 0% | 0-1 0% |
| NHVNlast 2 | 0-2 0% | 1-1 50% | 0-2 0% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Penn State
1 game played
Straight up
1-0
100% wins
Against the spread
0-1
0% covers · avg −7.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-1
0% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAIR | W 76-68 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
covered 0didn’t cover 1avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
over 0under 1avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
New Haven
2 games played
Straight up
0-2
0% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-2
0% overs · avg −18 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
CONN
CONNL 55-79
+18.5
7
vs
COLU
COLUL 53-71
−10.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CONN
CONNL 55-79
−11.5
7
vsCOLU
COLUL 53-71
−24.5
over 0under 2avg −18 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Penn State
1-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Fairfield76–68
5 days since their last game.
New Haven
0-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Northeast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Columbia53–71
- L@ UConn55–79
1 day since their last game.