Cameron Indoor Stadium · at Duke · Conference game
Closing line
DUKE -18.5✓ UNC covered by 3.5
DUKE -18.5✓ UNC covered by 3.5Closing total147.5Under by 10.5
 UNC | This season | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| 24-6 | Record | 28-2 |
| 17-13 | ATS | 19-11 |
| 14-16 | O/U | 10-20 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNC 66–80 DUKE · ✓ DUKE (89%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 34 | 27 | 61 |
| DUKE | 39 | 37 | 76 |
1st half: UNC 34, DUKE 39 (DUKE by 5). The model had DUKE by 8.1 and a total of 68.6 (actual 73).
Team stats
| UNC | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-53 45% | Field goals | 29-69 42% |
| 9-24 38% | 3-pointers | 10-32 31% |
| 4-4 100% | Free throws | 8-15 53% |
| 29 5 off | Rebounds | 42 18 off |
| 14 | Assists | 15 |
| 4 | Steals | 11 |
| 5 | Blocks | 5 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Trimble G | 38 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 5-11 | 0-3 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 33 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 33 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 4-9 | 0-3 |
| Derek Dixon G | 32 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 5-9 | 5-8 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zayden High F | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Jonathan Powell G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Kyan Evans G | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jaydon Young G | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Elijah Davis, James Brown, Isaiah Denis, John Holbrook, Ivan Matlekovic, Caleb Wilson, Evan Smith
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer F | 37 | 26 | 15 | 5 | 10-17 | 2-4 |
| Dame Sarr F | 34 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4-10 | 2-5 |
| Maliq Brown F | 30 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 6-9 | 1-3 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 27 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4-14 | 3-9 |
| Caleb Foster G | 11 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cayden Boozer G | 29 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Nik Khamenia F | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Darren Harris G | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Cameron Sheffield G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jack Scott G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Patrick Ngongba II, Sebastian Wilkins
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDUKE -18.5
ModelDUKE -13.7
Model edgeUNC +4.8
W UNC covered
Total
Market147.5
Model146.6
Model edgeUnder 0.9
W Under
Projected score
UNC 66.4 · DUKE 80.1
UNC 61 · DUKE 76
Win probability
DUKE 89%
1st half
Spread
DUKE -8.1
DUKE -5.0
Total
68.6
73 points
Projected score
UNC 30.3 · DUKE 38.3
UNC 34 · DUKE 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDUKE -16.5
2 → DUKE
CloseDUKE -18.5
2 pts toward DUKE
Total
Open144.5
▲ 3
Close147.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
UNC +1500 · DUKE -3600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DUKE -16.5 · closed DUKE -18.5 · moved 2 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -13.5
model DUKE -13.5
Opened 144.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 3 upmodel 146.5
model 146.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| DUKE | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
UNC 5–6 DUKEDUKE leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · UNC 6-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2025-26 | DUKE 68 @ UNC 71 | UNC +6.5 | UNC W |
| Mar 14, 2024-25 | UNC 71 vs DUKE 74 | DUKE -7.5 | UNC W |
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | DUKE 82 @ UNC 69 | UNC +9.5 | DUKE W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | UNC 70 @ DUKE 87 | DUKE -12.5 | DUKE W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | UNC 84 @ DUKE 79 | DUKE -4.5 | UNC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
North Carolina
30 games played
Straight up
24-6
80% wins
Against the spread
17-13
57% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-16
47% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs OSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | vs ECU | W 99-51 | -25.5 | W +22.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 30 | vs FSU | W 79-66 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ SMU | L 83-97 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 10 | vs WAKE | W 87-84 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | @ STAN | L 90-95 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 17 | @ CAL | L 78-84 | -7.5 | L −13.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 21 | vs ND | W 91-69 | -13.5 | W +8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | @ UVA | W 85-80 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 31 | @ GT | W 91-75 | -9.5 | W +6.5 | 160.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 2 | vs SYR | W 87-77 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 7 | vsDUKE | W 71-68 | +6.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 10 | @ MIA | L 66-75 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 14 | vs PITT | W 79-65 | -11.5 | W +2.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Feb 17 | @ NCSU | L 58-82 | +8.5 | L −15.5 | 156.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 21 | @SYR | W 77-64 | +2.5 | W +15.5 | 154.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 23 | vs LOU | W 77-74 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | vs VT | W 89-82 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 171 |
| Mar 3 | vs CLEM | W 67-63 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+22.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
+0.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
−12.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
−7.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
−9.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
−13.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+8.5
24
@UVA
UVAW 85-80
+11.5
31
@GT
GTW 91-75
+6.5
2
vsSYR
SYRW 87-77
−1.5
7
vsDUKE
DUKEW 71-68
+9.5
10
@MIA
MIAL 66-75
−7.5
14
vsPITT
PITTW 79-65
+2.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 58-82
−15.5
21
@SYR
SYRW 77-64
+15.5
23
vsLOU
LOUW 77-74
+6.5
28
vsVT
VTW 89-82
−0.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-63
+1.5
covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+5.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
−21.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
+24.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
+16.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
+37.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
+10.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+10.5
24
@UVA
UVAW 85-80
+12.5
31
@GT
GTW 91-75
+5.5
2
vsSYR
SYRW 87-77
+5.5
7
vsDUKE
DUKEW 71-68
−13.5
10
@MIA
MIAL 66-75
−15.5
14
vsPITT
PITTW 79-65
+1.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 58-82
−16.5
21
@SYR
SYRW 77-64
−13.5
23
vsLOU
LOUW 77-74
−11.5
28
vsVT
VTW 89-82
+21.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-63
−11.5
over 14under 16avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Duke
30 games played
Straight up
28-2
93% wins
Against the spread
19-11
63% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-20
33% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs TEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vsKU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vs ARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vs FLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs TTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vsGT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @FSU | W 91-87 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 6 | @LOU | W 84-73 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vsSMU | W 82-75 | -15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | @CAL | W 71-56 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | @STAN | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vsWAKE | W 90-69 | -19.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 26 | vsLOU | W 83-52 | -8.5 | W +22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @VT | W 72-58 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 3 | vs BC | W 67-49 | -26.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 7 | @UNC | L 68-71 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 10 | @PITT | W 70-54 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 14 | vsCLEM | W 67-54 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 16 | vsSYR | W 101-64 | -20.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 21 | vs MICH | W 68-63 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 24 | @ND | W 100-56 | -16.5 | W +27.5 | 141.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | vsUVA | W 77-51 | -9.5 | W +16.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Mar 2 | @NCSU | W 93-64 | -8.5 | W +20.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
−12.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
+9.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
−8.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
+0.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
+18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+1.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
+22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
+0.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−8.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−9.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−1.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
+0.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+16.5
21
vsMICH
MICHW 68-63
+8.5
24
@ND
NDW 100-56
+27.5
28
vsUVA
UVAW 77-51
+16.5
2
@NCSU
NCSUW 93-64
+20.5
covered 19didn’t cover 11avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
+14.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
−4.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
+1.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
−22.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
−18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+5.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
−22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
−18.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−25.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−13.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−12.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
−13.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+20.5
21
vsMICH
MICHW 68-63
−20.5
24
@ND
NDW 100-56
+14.5
28
vsUVA
UVAW 77-51
−15.5
2
@NCSU
NCSUW 93-64
+6.5
over 10under 20avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
North Carolina
24-6 overall · 12-5 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Clemson67–63
- Wvs Virginia Tech89–82
- Wvs Louisville77–74
- W@ Syracuse77–64
- L@ NC State58–82
4 days since their last game.
Duke
28-2 overall · 16-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ NC State93–64
- Wvs Virginia77–51
- W@ Notre Dame100–56
- Wvs Michigan68–63
- Wvs Syracuse101–64
5 days since their last game.