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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Washington @ USC

Galen Center · at USC · Conference game
#56WASHWashington
@
#36USCUSC AP #21
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WASHThis seasonUSC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USC 81–75 · win probability USC 69%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USC has more of the edges

WASH 1, USC 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: WASH 30.1, USC 44.2. Allowed: WASH 31.0, USC 33.4
WASHBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WASH 34.6%, USC 32.4%. Defensive: WASH 71.5%, USC 67.8%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: WASH plays 68.8 a game (196th fastest), USC 72.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
USCSmall
Three-pointers
WASH hits 31.5% and allows 33.6%; USC hits 31.7% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 34.6% and 34.1% of their shots
USCSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WASH 34%, USC 64%. Transfers in: WASH 6, USC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
USCSmall
Home court
USC at home. This season: USC 0-0 at home, WASH 0-0 away
Even
USC offense vs WASH defense
Offense 27th of 366 against a defense 48th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WASH 15.3%, USC 17.4%. Forced: WASH 14.4%, USC 16.4%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: WASH 51.2 and allows 50.1; USC 50.4 and allows 49.7
Context
Schedule so far
WASH has played the 46th-hardest schedule, USC the 42nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
WASH offense vs USC defense
Offense 57th of 366 against a defense 55th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelUSC -5.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model156.1
Model edge—
Projected score
WASH 75.1 · USC 80.9
Win probability
USC 69%
1st half
Spread
USC -3.3
Total
72.9
Projected score
WASH 34.8 · USC 38.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

USC has the better starters

Position by position: Washington 0, USC 1, even 4
WashingtonBetterUSC
G R. Beasley TR13.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 84
Even
G J. Cox TR18.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 96
G W. Yates12.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 68
USCSmall
G J. Jones15.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
G L. Watts TR11.8 pts · 6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 87
Even
G R. Rice20.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 6 ast Score 97
G P. Friedrichsen TR10.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
Even
G I. Bruns TR20.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 88
G T. Comer TR11 pts · 1.8 reb · 3.6 ast Score 68
Even
F J. Cofie9.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 77
WashingtonBetterUSC
WASH offense57th of 366 · +2.7
Even
USC defense55th of 366 · +1.4
WASH defense48th of 366 · +2.2
Even
USC offense27th of 366 · +7.0
Backcourt+5.8 · 5 players
USCBig
Backcourt+15.2 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench-1.3 · 5 players
USCBig
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWASH betterUSC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Washington
Guards
R. Beasley34 min · TRW. Yates31 minL. Watts27 min · TRP. Friedrichsen26 min · TRT. Comer25 min · TRH. Zrno19 min · TR
Forwards
N. Dzepina11 minJ. Rencher9 minM. TraoreNewW. BragaNew
Centers
L. Sommerville15 min
USC
Guards
J. Cox35 min · TRJ. Jones35 minR. Rice34 minI. Bruns32 min · TRK. Lewis30 min · TRA. Hunkin-Claytor28 min · TR
Forwards
J. Cofie31 minJ. Hughes28 min · TRA. RatliffNewC. CollinsNew
Centers
E. Reibe14 min · TRD. RatliffNewO. Joe AguNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WASHUSC
Scoring
77.1 #114Points per game77.8 #97
1.12 #103Points per possession1.07 #199
68.8 #196Pace (possessions)72.4 #25
Shooting
51.2 #187Effective FG%50.4 #225
31.5 #3073-point %31.7 #299
34.6 #2843-point attempt rate34.1 #292
30.1 #308Free throw rate44.2 #8
Possessions
15.3 #81Turnover rate17.4 #228
34.6 #56Offensive rebound rate32.4 #113
13.9 #152Assists per game14.9 #92
Defense
73.6 #146Points allowed78.4 #277
1.07 #140Points allowed per possession1.08 #173
50.1 #108Opponent effective FG%49.7 #89
33.6 #163Opponent 3-point %30.9 #31
14.4 #325Turnovers forced16.4 #198
71.5 #84Defensive rebound rate67.8 #269
5.7 #271Steals per game6.2 #217
4.2 #58Blocks per game5.5 #8
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Washington

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wisconsin82–85
  • Wvs USC83–79
  • L@ Oregon79–85
  • Wvs USC91–72
  • Lvs Wisconsin73–90

A week or more of rest.

USC

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Washington79–83
  • Lvs UCLA68–89
  • L@ Washington72–91
  • Lvs Nebraska67–82
  • L@ UCLA62–81

A week or more of rest.