1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. OHIO @ USA
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars

Mitchell Center · at South Alabama
#128OHIOOhio
@
#227USASouth Alabama
LineUSA -1.5moved 3 toward USA
Total153.5up 1 from 152.5
OHIOThis seasonUSA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OHIO 79–77 · win probability OHIO 60%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
USA -1.5
moved 3 toward USA
Total
153.5
model 155.8 · Over by 2.5
Model edge
OHIO by 4.5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USA has more of the edges

OHIO 1, USA 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USABig
Three-pointers
OHIO hits 30.1% and allows 36.8%; USA hits 34.5% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 38.1% and 36.5% of their shots
USABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: OHIO 36.9, USA 38.5. Allowed: OHIO 38.2, USA 25.4
OHIOBig
OHIO offense vs USA defense
Offense 81st of 366 against a defense 212th, on the model’s ratings
USABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: OHIO 51.0 and allows 53.0; USA 52.6 and allows 50.1
USASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OHIO 15.4%, USA 13.1%. Forced: OHIO 16.2%, USA 18.0%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: OHIO plays 71.0 a game (78th fastest), USA 67.1 (277th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
OHIO has played the 162nd-hardest schedule, USA the 223rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
USASmall
Home court
USA at home. This season: USA 0-0 at home, OHIO 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OHIO 41%, USA 21%. Transfers in: OHIO 2, USA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
USA offense vs OHIO defense
Offense 242nd of 366 against a defense 260th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OHIO 28.4%, USA 25.0%. Defensive: OHIO 67.2%, USA 68.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of under 3193856%51%49%
Non-conference games at this spread109454%49%50%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
3 pts toward USA
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
OHIO +100 · USA -120
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened OHIO -1.5 · now USA -1 · moved 2.5 toward USAmodel OHIO -3
Opened 152.5 · now 153 · moved 0.5 upmodel 156
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5
Bets
Money
OHIOWinnerUSA
Bets
Money
Money leans OHIO · 71 pts more of the money than of the bets
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
OHIOUSAOverUnderOHIOUSA
BetMGMMGM-1.5-115+1.5-105152.5-115152.5-105+100-120
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-1-110+1-110153-110153-110——
BetRiversBetRivers+0.5-113-0.5-113153.5-106153.5-121-113-113
BetUSBetUS-1-110+1-110153-110153-110——
BovadaBovada-1-105+1-115153-110153-110+100-120
DraftKingsDK-1.5-115+1.5-105153.5-105153.5-115+100-120
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-1-106+1-106153-108153-108——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadUSA -1.5OHIO -2.8OHIO +4.3
Total153.5155.8Over 2.3
Projected score—OHIO 79.3 · USA 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOHIO -1.8—
1H total72.8—
1H projected scoreOHIO 37.3 · USA 35.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

South Alabama has the better starters

Position by position: Ohio 0, South Alabama 1, even 4
OhioBetterSouth Alabama
G J. Paveletzke17.8 pts · 3 reb · 5.1 ast Score 89
No call
G A. Goldstein NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
G K. D'Augustino TR19.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 79
No call
G A. Lewis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
G K. Mitchell TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 76
No call
G J. Langsy NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
G J. Burris3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Score 11
USABig
F P. Law13.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
F J. Simmons15.4 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
Even
F S. Williams6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.2 ast Score 84
OhioBetterSouth Alabama
OHIO offense81st of 366 · +0.5
OHIOBig
USA defense212th of 366 · -5.4
OHIO defense260th of 366 · -6.7
Even
USA offense242nd of 366 · -7.3
Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players
No call
BackcourtNo numbers yet
Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt+3.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.4 · 1 player
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestOHIO betterUSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Ohio
Guards
J. Paveletzke37 minK. D'Augustino33 min · TRK. Mitchell31 min · TRJ. Burris10 minC. ReeseNewS. LedegenNew
Forwards
J. Simmons28 minK. Kuany8 minZ. MosleyNewC. TrudicNewJ. BowensNewD. MakitanNew
Centers
M. IckeNew
South Alabama
Guards
A. GoldsteinNewA. LewisNewJ. LangsyNewS. ShoptawNewD. WilliamsNewD. RomanNew
Forwards
P. Law26 minS. Williams15 minL. KunzewitschNewO. KenneyNewR. WilliamsNewD. HueittNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OHIOUSA
Scoring
76.7 #126Points per game73.2 #218
1.08 #194Points per possession1.10 #139
71.0 #78Pace (possessions)67.1 #277
Shooting
51.0 #197Effective FG%52.6 #120
30.1 #3413-point %34.5 #146
38.1 #2113-point attempt rate36.5 #237
36.9 #132Free throw rate38.5 #89
Possessions
15.4 #97Turnover rate13.1 #8
28.4 #248Offensive rebound rate25.0 #341
12.6 #242Assists per game11.9 #287
Defense
80.0 #319Points allowed71.3 #85
1.13 #295Points allowed per possession1.06 #100
53.0 #269Opponent effective FG%50.1 #105
36.8 #340Opponent 3-point %33.1 #133
16.2 #213Turnovers forced18.0 #96
67.2 #289Defensive rebound rate68.6 #222
5.7 #267Steals per game7.9 #46
3.4 #163Blocks per game2.2 #330
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Ohio

13-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kent State75–86
  • Lvs Miami OH108–110
  • L@ UMass82–94
  • Lvs Toledo67–79
  • W@ N Illinois74–66

A week or more of rest.

South Alabama

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Auburn67–78
  • Lvs GA Southern85–94
  • Lvs Southern Miss55–68
  • Wvs UL Monroe89–54
  • Wvs Troy65–54

A week or more of rest.