Cajundome · at Louisiana
#118AKRAkron
@
#221ULLouisiana
LineAKR -5.5no move
Total148.5no move
Season records: Akron and Louisiana
AKRThis seasonUL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AKR 77–70 · win probability AKR 72%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
AKR -5.5
no move since the open
Total
148.5
model 146.5 · Under by 2
Model edge
AKR by 1.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
92% UL
91% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AKR has more of the edges

AKR 6, UL 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
AKRBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: AKR 58.1 and allows 51.2; UL 47.1 and allows 52.6
AKRBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: AKR 29.2, UL 28.7. Allowed: AKR 30.4, UL 45.8
AKRBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: AKR 33.4%, UL 28.4%. Defensive: AKR 70.1%, UL 67.7%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: AKR plays 71.1 a game (70th fastest), UL 64.1 (359th). Faster games mean more points
AKRBig
UL offense vs AKR defense
Offense 292nd of 366 against a defense 168th, on the model’s ratings
AKRSmall
Three-pointers
AKR hits 38.2% and allows 35.5%; UL hits 33.6% and allows 35.6%. Threes are 44.8% and 40.5% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
AKR has played the 159th-hardest schedule, UL the 226th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ULSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: AKR 28%, UL 59%. Transfers in: AKR 5, UL 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
AKRSmall
AKR offense vs UL defense
Offense 101st of 366 against a defense 157th, on the model’s ratings
ULSmall
Home court
UL at home. This season: UL 0-0 at home, AKR 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: AKR 15.5%, UL 16.8%. Forced: AKR 18.3%, UL 18.3%

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Road favorites of 3 to 6.5154367%51%50%
Non-conference games at this spread173667%50%49%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
AKR -235 · UL +190
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened AKR -5.5 · unchangedmodel AKR -7
Opened 148.5 · now 149 · moved 0.5 upmodel 146.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
AKR -5.5SpreadUL +5.5
Bets
Money
Over 148.5TotalUnder 148.5
Bets
Money
AKRWinnerUL
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
AKRULOverUnderAKRUL
BetMGMMGM+5.5-110-5.5-110149.5-105149.5-115-235+190
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag+5-115-5-105149-115149-105——
BetRiversBetRivers+5.5-114-5.5-112149.5-106149.5-121-265+195
BetUSBetUS+5-115-5-105149-115149-105——
BovadaBovada+5.5-105-5.5-115149-110149-110-225+185
DraftKingsDK+5.5-108-5.5-112148.5-115148.5-105-245+200
FanDuelFD+5.5-110-5.5-110149.5-110149.5-110-235+190
LowVig.agLowVig.ag+5-111-5-101149-113149-103——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadAKR -5.5AKR -6.8AKR +1.3
Total148.5146.5Under 2.0
Projected score—AKR 76.7 · UL 69.9

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadAKR -4.2—
1H total68.5—
1H projected scoreAKR 36.4 · UL 32.2—

Akron has the better starters

Position by position: Akron 4, Louisiana 0, even 1
AkronBetterLouisiana
G T. Staveskie TR17.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 74
AKRSmall
G D. Lavergne9.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 40
G T. Pence TR9.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 86
AKRBig
G M. Cooper5.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.5 ast Score 1
F E. Mahaffey9.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.4 ast Score 69
AKRSmall
G T. Middleton TR12.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 3 ast Score 49
F M. Burton TR5.5 pts · 5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14
No call
G J. Keller17 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
F B. Hammer TR4.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 55
AKRSmall
F J. Harris TR9.3 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34
AkronBetterLouisiana
AKR offense101st of 366 · -1.1
AKRSmall
UL defense157th of 366 · -3.4
AKR defense168th of 366 · -3.7
AKRSmall
UL offense292nd of 366 · -9.0
Backcourt+2.7 · 2 players
AKRBig
Backcourt-6.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player
Bench-2.6 · 4 players
ULSmall
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestAKR betterUL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Akron
Guards
T. Staveskie36 min · TRT. Pence24 min · TRC. HeadNewT. PerkinsNewJ. HendersonNewE. WilsonNew
Forwards
E. Mahaffey29 minM. Burton25 min · TRB. Hammer14 min · TRZ. Halligan12 minC. White9 min · TRM. Musiime-Kamali9 min
Louisiana
Guards
D. Lavergne30 minM. Cooper30 minT. Middleton30 min · TRJ. Keller30 minL. Myers2 minD. WareNew
Forwards
J. Harris27 min · TRD. Pounds18 min · TRT. Jones17 minJ. Evans11 minR. OlajuwonNewT. DuncanNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
AKRUL
Scoring
86.4 #8Points per game63.7 #354
1.22 #6Points per possession0.99 #333
71.1 #70Pace (possessions)64.1 #359
Shooting
58.1 #9Effective FG%47.1 #334
38.2 #153-point %33.6 #189
44.8 #743-point attempt rate40.5 #160
29.2 #327Free throw rate28.7 #334
Possessions
15.5 #104Turnover rate16.8 #185
33.4 #78Offensive rebound rate28.4 #251
17.7 #12Assists per game10.3 #354
Defense
75.0 #188Points allowed70.7 #69
1.06 #98Points allowed per possession1.10 #227
51.2 #173Opponent effective FG%52.6 #247
35.5 #284Opponent 3-point %35.6 #286
18.3 #86Turnovers forced18.3 #85
70.1 #156Defensive rebound rate67.7 #272
7.2 #108Steals per game5.8 #257
2.9 #240Blocks per game3.5 #141

Akron

27-6 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas Tech71–91
  • Wvs Toledo79–76
  • Wvs Kent State75–68
  • Wvs Buffalo73–70
  • Wvs N Illinois94–55

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana

11-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs James Madison72–87
  • Wvs Georgia St84–75
  • L@ Arkansas St58–81
  • L@ Troy59–78
  • Wvs Texas St67–54

A week or more of rest.