Gentile Arena · at Loyola Chicago
#339CITThe Citadel
@
#113LUCLoyola Chicago
LineLUC -14.5moved 2 toward CIT
Total142.5down 1 from 143.5
Season records: The Citadel and Loyola Chicago
CITThis seasonLUC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LUC 80–62 · win probability LUC 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
LUC -14.5
moved 2 toward CIT
Total
142.5
model 142.1
Model edge
LUC by 3.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
97% CIT
97% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LUC has more of the edges

CIT 1, LUC 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LUCBig
CIT offense vs LUC defense
Offense 343rd of 366 against a defense 90th, on the model’s ratings
LUCBig
LUC offense vs CIT defense
Offense 132nd of 366 against a defense 314th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CIT has played the 233rd-hardest schedule, LUC the 112th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CITBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CIT 16.3%, LUC 19.8%. Forced: CIT 14.8%, LUC 12.9%
LUCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CIT 27.9%, LUC 30.5%. Defensive: CIT 68.5%, LUC 70.3%
LUCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CIT 49.5 and allows 57.5; LUC 49.8 and allows 52.0
LUCSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CIT 30.0, LUC 34.8. Allowed: CIT 33.3, LUC 33.6
LUCSmall
Home court
LUC at home. This season: LUC 0-0 at home, CIT 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
CIT hits 32.0% and allows 36.6%; LUC hits 31.7% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 47.8% and 47.7% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CIT 18%, LUC 22%. Transfers in: CIT 6, LUC 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: CIT plays 66.1 a game (313th fastest), LUC 66.1 (309th). Faster games mean more points

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5192888%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread98888%50%51%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 140 to 144.5357072%50%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
2 pts toward CIT
Total
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
CIT +850 · LUC -1658
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened LUC -16.5 · now LUC -15 · moved 1.5 toward CITmodel LUC -18
Opened 143.5 · now 143 · moved 0.5 downmodel 142
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
CIT +14.5SpreadLUC -14.5
Bets
Money
Over 142.5TotalUnder 142.5
Bets
Money
CITWinnerLUC
Bets
Money

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
CITLUCOverUnderCITLUC
BetMGMMGM-14.5-102+14.5-118143.5-105143.5-115+850-1600
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-15-110+15-110143-110143-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-15.5-122+15.5-105143.5-115143.5-110+800-1667
BetUSBetUS-15-110+15-110143-110143-110——
BovadaBovada-15-115+15-105143-110143-110+850-1800
DraftKingsDK-14.5-102+14.5-118142.5-115142.5-105+950-1650
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-15-106+15-106143-108143-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadLUC -14.5LUC -18.1LUC +3.6
Total142.5142.1Under 0.4
Projected score—CIT 62 · LUC 80.1

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadLUC -10.6—
1H total66.5—
1H projected scoreCIT 27.9 · LUC 38.6—

Loyola Chicago has the better starters

Position by position: The Citadel 0, Loyola Chicago 3, even 2
The CitadelBetterLoyola Chicago
G E. Bronson TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast Score 13
LUCBig
G D. Hand TR12.4 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 58
G C. McKenzie TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G D. Nessah TR15.8 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 91
G M. Gonzales3.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 17
Even
G R. Agarwal TR5.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26
G K. Davis4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 19
LUCSmall
F E. Ricks TR7.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 53
F R. Bethea TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 32
LUCSmall
F X. Amos11.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 65
The CitadelBetterLoyola Chicago
CIT offense343rd of 366 · -11.7
LUCBig
LUC defense90th of 366 · -0.2
CIT defense314th of 366 · -8.1
LUCBig
LUC offense132nd of 366 · -3.9
Backcourt-7.1 · 4 players
LUCBig
Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
LUCSmall
Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players
Bench-2.7 · 5 players
LUCBig
Bench+0.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCIT betterLUC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
The Citadel
Guards
E. Bronson19 min · TRC. McKenzie16 min · TRM. Gonzales13 minK. Davis12 minC. Cormier9 min · TRJ. Heck2 min
Forwards
R. Bethea13 min · TRT. Mrus10 min · TRJ. Hurlburt9 min · TRC. Bonjasky6 minL. Menefee3 minA. Alexander1 min
Centers
Y. AnsongNew
Loyola Chicago
Guards
D. Hand31 min · TRD. Nessah28 min · TRR. Agarwal22 min · TRN. Anderson17 minJ. Dawson10 min · TRC. Jeffrey8 min · TR
Forwards
E. Ricks27 min · TRX. Amos26 minE. Rapieque15 min · TRA. WingNew
Centers
J. Schofield17 min · TRM. Diallo7 min · TRR. KreagerNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CITLUC
Scoring
68.3 #309Points per game66.8 #337
1.03 #283Points per possession1.01 #313
66.1 #313Pace (possessions)66.1 #309
Shooting
49.5 #265Effective FG%49.8 #246
32.0 #2833-point %31.7 #296
47.8 #263-point attempt rate47.7 #27
30.0 #309Free throw rate34.8 #188
Possessions
16.3 #156Turnover rate19.8 #343
27.9 #270Offensive rebound rate30.5 #179
12.2 #272Assists per game13.9 #151
Defense
78.9 #293Points allowed75.8 #212
1.20 #357Points allowed per possession1.14 #315
57.5 #361Opponent effective FG%52.0 #214
36.6 #335Opponent 3-point %36.8 #342
14.8 #306Turnovers forced12.9 #357
68.5 #227Defensive rebound rate70.3 #146
5.2 #318Steals per game4.1 #363
2.5 #304Blocks per game3.8 #101

The Citadel

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs ETSU76–83
  • Wvs Chattanooga88–85
  • W@ Wofford93–90
  • L@ Furman51–72
  • Lvs Chattanooga72–93

A week or more of rest.

Loyola Chicago

9-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Davidson59–64
  • Wvs Richmond75–67
  • Wvs G Washington68–62
  • L@ Saint Louis65–79
  • Wvs Richmond69–66

A week or more of rest.