Gentile Arena · at Loyola Chicago
Line
LUC -14.5moved 2 toward CIT
Total142.5down 1 from 143.5
| This season | LUC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects LUC 80–62 · win probability LUC 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
LUC -14.5
moved 2 toward CIT
Total
142.5
model 142.1
Model edge
LUC by 3.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
97% CIT
97% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: LUC has more of the edges
CIT 1, LUC 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CIT offense vs LUC defense
Offense 343rd of 366 against a defense 90th, on the model’s ratings
LUC offense vs CIT defense
Offense 132nd of 366 against a defense 314th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CIT has played the 233rd-hardest schedule, LUC the 112th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CIT 16.3%, LUC 19.8%. Forced: CIT 14.8%, LUC 12.9%
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CIT 27.9%, LUC 30.5%. Defensive: CIT 68.5%, LUC 70.3%
Shooting
Effective FG%: CIT 49.5 and allows 57.5; LUC 49.8 and allows 52.0
Free throws
Free throw rate: CIT 30.0, LUC 34.8. Allowed: CIT 33.3, LUC 33.6
Home court
LUC at home. This season: LUC 0-0 at home, CIT 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
CIT hits 32.0% and allows 36.6%; LUC hits 31.7% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 47.8% and 47.7% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CIT 18%, LUC 22%. Transfers in: CIT 6, LUC 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: CIT plays 66.1 a game (313th fastest), LUC 66.1 (309th). Faster games mean more points
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 10 to 14.5 | 1928 | 88% | 48% | 52% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 988 | 88% | 50% | 51% |
| Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog | 4513 | 74% | 51% | 50% |
| Games with a total of 140 to 144.5 | 3570 | 72% | 50% | 50% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenLUC -16.5
2 → CIT
NowLUC -14.5
2 pts toward CIT
Total
Open143.5
▼ 1
Now142.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
CIT +850 · LUC -1658
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened LUC -16.5 · now LUC -15 · moved 1.5 toward CITmodel LUC -18
model LUC -18
Opened 143.5 · now 143 · moved 0.5 downmodel 142
model 142
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Bets
Money
Over 142.5TotalUnder 142.5
Bets
Money
Bets
Money
Books
7 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIT | LUC | Over | Under | CIT | LUC | |
| BetMGMMGM | -14.5-102 | +14.5-118 | 143.5-105 | 143.5-115 | +850 | -1600 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -15-110 | +15-110 | 143-110 | 143-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -15.5-122 | +15.5-105 | 143.5-115 | 143.5-110 | +800 | -1667 |
| BetUSBetUS | -15-110 | +15-110 | 143-110 | 143-110 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -15-115 | +15-105 | 143-110 | 143-110 | +850 | -1800 |
| DraftKingsDK | -14.5-102 | +14.5-118 | 142.5-115 | 142.5-105 | +950 | -1650 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -15-106 | +15-106 | 143-108 | 143-108 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LUC -14.5 | LUC -18.1 | LUC +3.6 |
| Total | 142.5 | 142.1 | Under 0.4 |
| Projected score | — | CIT 62 · LUC 80.1 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LUC -10.6 | — |
| 1H total | 66.5 | — |
| 1H projected score | CIT 27.9 · LUC 38.6 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | |
| 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% | 2-8 20% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
The Citadel
30 games played
Straight up
8-22
27% wins
Against the spread
15-15
50% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-15
50% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | @ | L 47-76 | +15.5 | L −13.5 | 144.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 10 | vs | L 86-96 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 14 | @ | L 92-100 | +6.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | O 192 |
| Nov 24 | vs | L 58-70 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 26 | vs | L 65-72 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 137.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 30 | vs | L 41-69 | +8.5 | L −19.5 | 133.5 | U 110 |
| Dec 4 | @ | L 63-79 | +18.5 | W +2.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 13 | @ | L 55-71 | +22.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 17 | @ | L 78-82 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 146.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 20 | @ | L 56-80 | +18.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 30 | vs | L 49-74 | +12.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 3 | vs | L 86-95 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 7 | @ | L 63-101 | +16.5 | L −21.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 10 | vs | W 79-77 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 15 | @ | L 66-69 | +9.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 17 | @ | W 82-68 | +6.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 21 | vs | W 77-75 | +11.5 | W +13.5 | 142.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 23 | @ | L 55-84 | +17.5 | L −11.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 29 | vs | W 80-56 | -2.5 | W +21.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 31 | vs | W 71-66 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 5 | @ | L 64-78 | +13.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 7 | @ | W 78-71 | +9.5 | W +16.5 | 142.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 11 | @ | L 49-87 | +9.5 | L −28.5 | 145.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 14 | vs | L 54-70 | +11.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 19 | vs | L 75-78 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 21 | vs | L 72-93 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 144.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 25 | @ | L 51-72 | +15.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 123 |
| Feb 28 | @ | W 93-90 | +11.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 183 |
| Mar 6 | vs | W 88-85 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 148.5 | O 173 |
| Mar 7 | vs | L 76-83 | +14.5 | W +7.5 | 139.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
@
BC
L 47-76
−13.5
10
vs
CHSO
L 86-96
−7.5
14
@
WGA
L 92-100
−1.5
24
vs
BELL
L 58-70
−8.5
26
vs
HCU
L 65-72
−5.5
30
vs
PRES
L 41-69
−19.5
4
@
DAV
L 63-79
+2.5
13
@
SC
L 55-71
+6.5
17
@
COFC
L 78-82
+13.5
20
@
RICH
L 56-80
−5.5
30
vs
ETSU
L 49-74
−12.5
3
vs
WOF
L 86-95
+0.5
7
@
MER
L 63-101
−21.5
10
vs
WCU
W 79-77
+8.5
15
@
UNCG
L 66-69
+6.5
17
@
VMI
W 82-68
+20.5
21
vs
FUR
W 77-75
+13.5
23
@
ETSU
L 55-84
−11.5
29
vs
VMI
W 80-56
+21.5
31
vs
UNCG
W 71-66
+7.5
5
@
SAM
L 64-78
−0.5
7
@
UTC
W 78-71
+16.5
11
@
WCU
L 49-87
−28.5
14
vs
MER
L 54-70
−4.5
19
vs
SAM
L 75-78
+7.5
21
vs
UTC
L 72-93
−16.5
25
@
FUR
L 51-72
−5.5
28
@
WOF
W 93-90
+14.5
6
vs
UTC
W 88-85
+10.5
7
vs
ETSU
L 76-83
+7.5
covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
@
BC
L 47-76
−21.5
10
vs
CHSO
L 86-96
+36.5
14
@
WGA
L 92-100
+41.5
24
vs
BELL
L 58-70
−28.5
26
vs
HCU
L 65-72
−0.5
30
vs
PRES
L 41-69
−23.5
4
@
DAV
L 63-79
+4.5
13
@
SC
L 55-71
−15.5
17
@
COFC
L 78-82
+13.5
20
@
RICH
L 56-80
−10.5
30
vs
ETSU
L 49-74
−17.5
3
vs
WOF
L 86-95
+36.5
7
@
MER
L 63-101
+16.5
10
vs
WCU
W 79-77
+7.5
15
@
UNCG
L 66-69
−13.5
17
@
VMI
W 82-68
+6.5
21
vs
FUR
W 77-75
+9.5
23
@
ETSU
L 55-84
−2.5
29
vs
VMI
W 80-56
−6.5
31
vs
UNCG
W 71-66
−10.5
5
@
SAM
L 64-78
−4.5
7
@
UTC
W 78-71
+6.5
11
@
WCU
L 49-87
−9.5
14
vs
MER
L 54-70
−23.5
19
vs
SAM
L 75-78
+9.5
21
vs
UTC
L 72-93
+20.5
25
@
FUR
L 51-72
−20.5
28
@
WOF
W 93-90
+34.5
6
vs
UTC
W 88-85
+24.5
7
vs
ETSU
L 76-83
+19.5
over 15under 15avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Loyola Chicago
33 games played
Straight up
9-24
27% wins
Against the spread
13-20
39% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-18
45% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs | W 91-88 | -17.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 6 | vs | L 65-73 | -21.5 | L −29.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 9 | vs | L 62-64 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 138.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 13 | @ | L 74-95 | +5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 16 | vs | L 67-80 | +3.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 21 | vs | L 59-76 | -13.5 | L −30.5 | 148.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 25 | vs | L 51-72 | +8.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 26 | vs | L 51-63 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 136.5 | U 114 |
| Dec 2 | vs | W 83-72 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 140.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 6 | vs | W 73-68 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | O 141 |
| Dec 14 | vs | L 75-84 | -15.5 | L −24.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 17 | @ | L 71-85 | +11.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs | W 80-78 | +15.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 31 | @ | W 61-57 | +9.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 3 | vs | L 68-70 | +7.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 7 | vs | L 64-79 | +1.5 | L −13.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 66-101 | +14.5 | L −20.5 | 154.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 13 | vs | L 74-82 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 140.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 16 | @ | L 51-78 | +16.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 20 | @ | L 70-84 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 24 | vs | L 59-71 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 27 | vs | L 64-85 | +1.5 | L −19.5 | 143.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 30 | @ | L 75-89 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 150.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 3 | vs | W 71-61 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 140.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 6 | @ | L 64-84 | +9.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 148 |
| Feb 13 | vs | L 59-86 | +17.5 | L −9.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 18 | @ | L 59-62 | +8.5 | W +5.5 | 135.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 21 | @ | L 61-75 | +9.5 | L −4.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 28 | vs | W 69-66 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 146.5 | U 135 |
| Mar 4 | @ | L 65-79 | +21.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | U 144 |
| Mar 7 | vs | W 68-62 | +9.5 | W +15.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 11 | vs | W 75-67 | +4.5 | W +12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Mar 12 | vs | L 59-64 | +5.5 | W +0.5 | 132.5 | U 123 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
CLE
W 91-88
−14.5
6
vs
MERC
L 65-73
−29.5
9
vs
UNT
L 62-64
−3.5
13
@
WICH
L 74-95
−15.5
16
vs
CSU
L 67-80
−9.5
21
vs
NIU
L 59-76
−30.5
25
vs
UNI
L 51-72
−12.5
26
vs
SJSU
L 51-63
−10.5
2
vs
CMU
W 83-72
+4.5
6
vs
PRIN
W 73-68
−1.5
14
vs
CHST
L 75-84
−24.5
17
@
SF
L 71-85
−2.5
20
vs
SCU
W 80-78
+17.5
31
@
URI
W 61-57
+13.5
3
vs
DAY
L 68-70
+5.5
7
vs
DAV
L 64-79
−13.5
10
@
GW
L 66-101
−20.5
13
vs
GMU
L 74-82
+3.5
16
@
DAY
L 51-78
−10.5
20
@
SBU
L 70-84
−3.5
24
vs
DUQ
L 59-71
−6.5
27
vs
JOES
L 64-85
−19.5
30
@
VCU
L 75-89
+4.5
3
vs
LAS
W 71-61
+7.5
6
@
DAV
L 64-84
−10.5
13
vs
SLU
L 59-86
−9.5
18
@
FOR
L 59-62
+5.5
21
@
JOES
L 61-75
−4.5
28
vs
RICH
W 69-66
+5.5
4
@
SLU
L 65-79
+7.5
7
vs
GW
W 68-62
+15.5
11
vs
RICH
W 75-67
+12.5
12
vs
DAV
L 59-64
+0.5
covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vs
CLE
W 91-88
+27.5
6
vs
MERC
L 65-73
−6.5
9
vs
UNT
L 62-64
−12.5
13
@
WICH
L 74-95
+15.5
16
vs
CSU
L 67-80
−4.5
21
vs
NIU
L 59-76
−13.5
25
vs
UNI
L 51-72
−11.5
26
vs
SJSU
L 51-63
−22.5
2
vs
CMU
W 83-72
+14.5
6
vs
PRIN
W 73-68
+4.5
14
vs
CHST
L 75-84
+18.5
17
@
SF
L 71-85
+12.5
20
vs
SCU
W 80-78
+6.5
31
@
URI
W 61-57
−27.5
3
vs
DAY
L 68-70
−2.5
7
vs
DAV
L 64-79
+6.5
10
@
GW
L 66-101
+12.5
13
vs
GMU
L 74-82
+15.5
16
@
DAY
L 51-78
−12.5
20
@
SBU
L 70-84
+6.5
24
vs
DUQ
L 59-71
−22.5
27
vs
JOES
L 64-85
+5.5
30
@
VCU
L 75-89
+13.5
3
vs
LAS
W 71-61
−8.5
6
@
DAV
L 64-84
+7.5
13
vs
SLU
L 59-86
−10.5
18
@
FOR
L 59-62
−14.5
21
@
JOES
L 61-75
−6.5
28
vs
RICH
W 69-66
−11.5
4
@
SLU
L 65-79
−11.5
7
vs
GW
W 68-62
−18.5
11
vs
RICH
W 75-67
+0.5
12
vs
DAV
L 59-64
−9.5
over 15under 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Loyola Chicago has the better starters
Position by position: The Citadel 0, Loyola Chicago 3, even 2
The CitadelBetterLoyola Chicago
G E. Bronson TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast
Score 13
→LUCBig
G D. Hand TR12.4 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 58
G C. McKenzie TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.3 ast
Not ranked
=No call
G D. Nessah TR15.8 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 91
G M. Gonzales3.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 17
=Even
G R. Agarwal TR5.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.8 ast
Score 26
G K. Davis4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 19
→LUCSmall
F E. Ricks TR7.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 53
F R. Bethea TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast
Score 32
→LUCSmall
F X. Amos11.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 65
The CitadelBetterLoyola Chicago
CIT offense343rd of 366 · -11.7
→LUCBig
LUC defense90th of 366 · -0.2
CIT defense314th of 366 · -8.1
→LUCBig
LUC offense132nd of 366 · -3.9
Backcourt-7.1 · 4 players
→LUCBig
Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
→LUCSmall
Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players
Bench-2.7 · 5 players
→LUCBig
Bench+0.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCIT betterLUC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
E. Bronson19 min · TRC. McKenzie16 min · TRM. Gonzales13 minK. Davis12 minC. Cormier9 min · TRJ. Heck2 min
Forwards
R. Bethea13 min · TRT. Mrus10 min · TRJ. Hurlburt9 min · TRC. Bonjasky6 minL. Menefee3 minA. Alexander1 min
Centers
Y. AnsongNew
Guards
D. Hand31 min · TRD. Nessah28 min · TRR. Agarwal22 min · TRN. Anderson17 minJ. Dawson10 min · TRC. Jeffrey8 min · TR
Forwards
E. Ricks27 min · TRX. Amos26 minE. Rapieque15 min · TRA. WingNew
Centers
J. Schofield17 min · TRM. Diallo7 min · TRR. KreagerNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 68.3 #309 | Points per game | 66.8 #337 |
| 1.03 #283 | Points per possession | 1.01 #313 |
| 66.1 #313 | Pace (possessions) | 66.1 #309 |
| Shooting | ||
| 49.5 #265 | Effective FG% | 49.8 #246 |
| 32.0 #283 | 3-point % | 31.7 #296 |
| 47.8 #26 | 3-point attempt rate | 47.7 #27 |
| 30.0 #309 | Free throw rate | 34.8 #188 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.3 #156 | Turnover rate | 19.8 #343 |
| 27.9 #270 | Offensive rebound rate | 30.5 #179 |
| 12.2 #272 | Assists per game | 13.9 #151 |
| Defense | ||
| 78.9 #293 | Points allowed | 75.8 #212 |
| 1.20 #357 | Points allowed per possession | 1.14 #315 |
| 57.5 #361 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.0 #214 |
| 36.6 #335 | Opponent 3-point % | 36.8 #342 |
| 14.8 #306 | Turnovers forced | 12.9 #357 |
| 68.5 #227 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.3 #146 |
| 5.2 #318 | Steals per game | 4.1 #363 |
| 2.5 #304 | Blocks per game | 3.8 #101 |
The Citadel
8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs ETSU76–83
- Wvs Chattanooga88–85
- W@ Wofford93–90
- L@ Furman51–72
- Lvs Chattanooga72–93
A week or more of rest.
Loyola Chicago
9-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Davidson59–64
- Wvs Richmond75–67
- Wvs G Washington68–62
- L@ Saint Louis65–79
- Wvs Richmond69–66
A week or more of rest.