West Georgia Wolves at Loyola Chicago Ramblers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 8:00 PM ETGentile Arena · at Loyola Chicago

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: West Georgia and Loyola Chicago
WGA	This season	LUC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LUC 80–65 · win probability LUC 91%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LUC has more of the edges

WGA 2, LUC 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LUCBig

WGA offense vs LUC defense

Offense 278th of 366 against a defense 90th, on the model’s ratings

LUCBig

LUC offense vs WGA defense

Offense 132nd of 366 against a defense 312th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WGA has played the 270th-hardest schedule, LUC the 112th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WGABig

Three-pointers

WGA hits 33.1% and allows 33.1%; LUC hits 31.7% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 33.0% and 47.7% of their shots

WGABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WGA 15.9%, LUC 19.8%. Forced: WGA 14.7%, LUC 12.9%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: WGA plays 71.0 a game (75th fastest), LUC 66.1 (309th). Faster games mean more points

LUCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WGA 29.2, LUC 34.8. Allowed: WGA 36.9, LUC 33.6

LUCSmall

Home court

LUC at home. This season: LUC 0-0 at home, WGA 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WGA 49.6 and allows 53.4; LUC 49.8 and allows 52.0

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WGA 31.5%, LUC 30.5%. Defensive: WGA 71.0%, LUC 70.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WGA 31%, LUC 22%. Transfers in: WGA 5, LUC 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LUC -15.4	—
Total	—	145.5	—
Projected score	—	WGA 65.1 · LUC 80.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LUC -9.0	—
1H total	68.1	—
1H projected score	WGA 29.5 · LUC 38.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WGA WWWWW	20-10	67%	9-6	—
LUC WWWWW	13-20	39%	6-10	—

Venue/role: WGA away; LUC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WGA OOUOU	16-14	53%	13-17
LUC UUUOU	15-18	45%	9-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WGA	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
LUC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

West Georgia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs UNCA	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ CHSO	No recent meeting
Nov 24	@ TNTC	L59–87LU

Loyola Chicago

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ AF	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ CSU	L67–80LU
Nov 18	vs WICH	L74–95LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

West Georgia

30 games played

Straight up

13-17

43% wins

Against the spread

20-10

67% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1743%

L L W W W L W L L L W W W L L L L W L L L W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1067%

L W W W W W W L L W W W W L L L L W L W L W W L W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U O U U O O U O O O O U U O O U U U O U O O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NEB	L 53-86	+24.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 139
Nov 10	@UCLA	L 62-83	+30.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 145
Nov 14	vsCIT	W 100-92	-6.5	W +1.5	150.5	O 192
Nov 17	@TNTC	W 61-59	+4.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 120
Nov 21	vsUPST	W 72-64	-2.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 23	@GT	L 66-82	+18.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 1	@TROY	W 93-89	+17.5	W +21.5	150.5	O 182
Dec 6	vsTNTC	L 59-87	-1.5	L −29.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 13	vsGASO	L 85-91	+3.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 176
Dec 22	@UGA	L 74-103	+36.5	W +7.5	173.5	O 177
Jan 1	vsBELL	W 87-85	+1.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 172
Jan 3	vsEKU	W 88-76	+1.5	W +13.5	156.5	O 164
Jan 8	@UNF	W 85-73	-2.5	W +9.5	164.5	U 158
Jan 10	@JAX	L 43-75	+1.5	L −30.5	141.5	U 118
Jan 15	@STET	L 86-95	-1.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 181
Jan 17	@FGCU	L 72-90	+9.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 162
Jan 22	vsCARK	L 65-86	+3.5	L −17.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 24	vsQUC	W 74-66	+7.5	W +15.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 28	@BELL	L 74-77	+2.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 151
Jan 31	vsAPSU	L 78-81	+7.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 159
Feb 5	vsUNF	L 73-81	-5.5	L −13.5	166.5	U 154
Feb 7	vsJAX	W 87-73	+1.5	W +15.5	138.5	O 160
Feb 11	@UNA	W 82-73	+1.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 14	@CARK	L 62-79	+10.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 18	@EKU	L 80-81	+7.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 21	@QUC	L 84-91	+11.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 175
Feb 25	vsLIP	W 84-78	+5.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 28	vsUNA	W 75-63	-4.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 138
Mar 4	vsUNF	W 93-85	-3.5	W +4.5	160.5	O 178
Mar 6	vsQUC	L 63-71	+8.5	W +0.5	164.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEB

L 53-86

−8.5

UCLA

L 62-83

+9.5

CIT

W 100-92

+1.5

TNTC

W 61-59

+6.5

UPST

W 72-64

+5.5

L 66-82

+2.5

TROY

W 93-89

+21.5

TNTC

L 59-87

−29.5

GASO

L 85-91

−2.5

UGA

L 74-103

+7.5

BELL

W 87-85

+3.5

EKU

W 88-76

+13.5

UNF

W 85-73

+9.5

JAX

L 43-75

−30.5

STET

L 86-95

−10.5

FGCU

L 72-90

−8.5

CARK

L 65-86

−17.5

QUC

W 74-66

+15.5

BELL

L 74-77

−0.5

APSU

L 78-81

+4.5

UNF

L 73-81

−13.5

JAX

W 87-73

+15.5

UNA

W 82-73

+10.5

CARK

L 62-79

−6.5

EKU

L 80-81

+6.5

QUC

L 84-91

+4.5

LIP

W 84-78

+11.5

UNA

W 75-63

+7.5

UNF

W 93-85

+4.5

QUC

L 63-71

+0.5

covered 20didn’t cover 10avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEB

L 53-86

−14.5

UCLA

L 62-83

−1.5

CIT

W 100-92

+41.5

TNTC

W 61-59

−32.5

UPST

W 72-64

−17.5

L 66-82

+3.5

TROY

W 93-89

+31.5

TNTC

L 59-87

−4.5

GASO

L 85-91

+21.5

UGA

L 74-103

+3.5

BELL

W 87-85

+20.5

EKU

W 88-76

+7.5

UNF

W 85-73

−6.5

JAX

L 43-75

−23.5

STET

L 86-95

+29.5

FGCU

L 72-90

+9.5

CARK

L 65-86

−3.5

QUC

W 74-66

−22.5

BELL

L 74-77

−0.5

APSU

L 78-81

+8.5

UNF

L 73-81

−12.5

JAX

W 87-73

+21.5

UNA

W 82-73

+9.5

CARK

L 62-79

−9.5

EKU

L 80-81

+6.5

QUC

L 84-91

+13.5

LIP

W 84-78

+8.5

UNA

W 75-63

−8.5

UNF

W 93-85

+17.5

QUC

L 63-71

−30.5

over 16under 14avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Loyola Chicago

33 games played

Straight up

9-24

27% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2427%

W L L L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-2039%

L L L L L L L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L L W W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

O U U O U U U U O O O O O U U O O O U O U O O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCLE	W 91-88	-17.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 6	vsMERC	L 65-73	-21.5	L −29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsUNT	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 13	@WICH	L 74-95	+5.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsCSU	L 67-80	+3.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 147
Nov 21	vsNIU	L 59-76	-13.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	vsUNI	L 51-72	+8.5	L −12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsSJSU	L 51-63	+1.5	L −10.5	136.5	U 114
Dec 2	vsCMU	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 155
Dec 6	vsPRIN	W 73-68	-6.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 14	vsCHST	L 75-84	-15.5	L −24.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 17	@SF	L 71-85	+11.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsSCU	W 80-78	+15.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 31	@URI	W 61-57	+9.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsDAY	L 68-70	+7.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 7	vsDAV	L 64-79	+1.5	L −13.5	136.5	O 143
Jan 10	@GW	L 66-101	+14.5	L −20.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 13	vsGMU	L 74-82	+11.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 16	@DAY	L 51-78	+16.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 20	@SBU	L 70-84	+10.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsDUQ	L 59-71	+5.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 27	vsJOES	L 64-85	+1.5	L −19.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 30	@VCU	L 75-89	+18.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 3	vsLAS	W 71-61	-2.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 6	@DAV	L 64-84	+9.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 148
Feb 13	vsSLU	L 59-86	+17.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Feb 18	@FOR	L 59-62	+8.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 121
Feb 21	@JOES	L 61-75	+9.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 136
Feb 28	vsRICH	W 69-66	+2.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 4	@SLU	L 65-79	+21.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 144
Mar 7	vsGW	W 68-62	+9.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 130
Mar 11	vsRICH	W 75-67	+4.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Mar 12	vsDAV	L 59-64	+5.5	W +0.5	132.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

−14.5

MERC

L 65-73

−29.5

UNT

L 62-64

−3.5

WICH

L 74-95

−15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−9.5

NIU

L 59-76

−30.5

UNI

L 51-72

−12.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−10.5

CMU

W 83-72

+4.5

PRIN

W 73-68

−1.5

CHST

L 75-84

−24.5

L 71-85

−2.5

SCU

W 80-78

+17.5

URI

W 61-57

+13.5

DAY

L 68-70

+5.5

DAV

L 64-79

−13.5

L 66-101

−20.5

GMU

L 74-82

+3.5

DAY

L 51-78

−10.5

SBU

L 70-84

−3.5

DUQ

L 59-71

−6.5

JOES

L 64-85

−19.5

VCU

L 75-89

+4.5

LAS

W 71-61

+7.5

DAV

L 64-84

−10.5

SLU

L 59-86

−9.5

FOR

L 59-62

+5.5

JOES

L 61-75

−4.5

RICH

W 69-66

+5.5

SLU

L 65-79

+7.5

W 68-62

+15.5

RICH

W 75-67

+12.5

DAV

L 59-64

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

+27.5

MERC

L 65-73

−6.5

UNT

L 62-64

−12.5

WICH

L 74-95

+15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−4.5

NIU

L 59-76

−13.5

UNI

L 51-72

−11.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−22.5

CMU

W 83-72

+14.5

PRIN

W 73-68

+4.5

CHST

L 75-84

+18.5

L 71-85

+12.5

SCU

W 80-78

+6.5

URI

W 61-57

−27.5

DAY

L 68-70

−2.5

DAV

L 64-79

+6.5

L 66-101

+12.5

GMU

L 74-82

+15.5

DAY

L 51-78

−12.5

SBU

L 70-84

+6.5

DUQ

L 59-71

−22.5

JOES

L 64-85

+5.5

VCU

L 75-89

+13.5

LAS

W 71-61

−8.5

DAV

L 64-84

+7.5

SLU

L 59-86

−10.5

FOR

L 59-62

−14.5

JOES

L 61-75

−6.5

RICH

W 69-66

−11.5

SLU

L 65-79

−11.5

W 68-62

−18.5

RICH

W 75-67

+0.5

DAV

L 59-64

−9.5

over 15under 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Loyola Chicago has the better starters

Position by position: West Georgia 0, Loyola Chicago 3, even 2

West GeorgiaBetterLoyola Chicago

G C. Lewless12.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 37

LUCSmall

G D. Hand TR12.4 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 58

G L. Hutchinson TR3.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 6

LUCBig

G D. Nessah TR15.8 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 91

G J. Redmond TR6 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 26

Even

G R. Agarwal TR5.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26

F K. Chime5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 34

LUCSmall

F E. Ricks TR7.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 53

F D. Simon TR2.9 pts · 2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F X. Amos11.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 65

West GeorgiaBetterLoyola Chicago

WGA offense278th of 366 · -8.5

LUCBig

LUC defense90th of 366 · -0.2

WGA defense312th of 366 · -8.1

LUCBig

LUC offense132nd of 366 · -3.9

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

LUCBig

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players

LUCSmall

Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players

Bench-2.1 · 5 players

LUCSmall

Bench+0.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWGA betterLUC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

West Georgia

Guards

C. Lewless29 minL. Hutchinson17 min · TRJ. Redmond17 min · TRC. Merritt4 minA. Williams2 min · TRM. Young1 min

Forwards

K. Chime20 minD. Simon10 min · TRX. Shegog8 minM. Destremau7 min · TRM. SmithNewA. SempereNew

Loyola Chicago

Guards

D. Hand31 min · TRD. Nessah28 min · TRR. Agarwal22 min · TRN. Anderson17 minJ. Dawson10 min · TRC. Jeffrey8 min · TR

Forwards

E. Ricks27 min · TRX. Amos26 minE. Rapieque15 min · TRA. WingNew

Centers

J. Schofield17 min · TRM. Diallo7 min · TRR. KreagerNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WGA75.3 #156

LUC66.8 #337

Points per possession

WGA1.06 #224

LUC1.01 #313

Pace (possessions)

WGA71.0 #75

LUC66.1 #309

Shooting

Effective FG%

WGA49.6 #261

LUC49.8 #246

3-point %

WGA33.1 #222

LUC31.7 #296

3-point attempt rate

WGA33.0 #316

LUC47.7 #27

Free throw rate

WGA29.2 #329

LUC34.8 #188

Possessions

Turnover rate

WGA15.9 #130

LUC19.8 #343

Offensive rebound rate

WGA31.5 #142

LUC30.5 #179

Assists per game

WGA12.3 #265

LUC13.9 #151

Defense

Points allowed

WGA80.5 #326

LUC75.8 #212

Points allowed per possession

WGA1.13 #297

LUC1.14 #315

Opponent effective FG%

WGA53.4 #281

LUC52.0 #214

Opponent 3-point %

WGA33.1 #129

LUC36.8 #342

Turnovers forced

WGA14.7 #312

LUC12.9 #357

Defensive rebound rate

WGA71.0 #102

LUC70.3 #146

Steals per game

WGA6.4 #191

LUC4.1 #363

Blocks per game

WGA4.7 #25

LUC3.8 #101

WGA		LUC
Scoring
75.3 #156	Points per game	66.8 #337
1.06 #224	Points per possession	1.01 #313
71.0 #75	Pace (possessions)	66.1 #309
Shooting
49.6 #261	Effective FG%	49.8 #246
33.1 #222	3-point %	31.7 #296
33.0 #316	3-point attempt rate	47.7 #27
29.2 #329	Free throw rate	34.8 #188
Possessions
15.9 #130	Turnover rate	19.8 #343
31.5 #142	Offensive rebound rate	30.5 #179
12.3 #265	Assists per game	13.9 #151
Defense
80.5 #326	Points allowed	75.8 #212
1.13 #297	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #315
53.4 #281	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #214
33.1 #129	Opponent 3-point %	36.8 #342
14.7 #312	Turnovers forced	12.9 #357
71.0 #102	Defensive rebound rate	70.3 #146
6.4 #191	Steals per game	4.1 #363
4.7 #25	Blocks per game	3.8 #101

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

West Georgia

13-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Queens University Royals63–71
Wvs North Florida93–85
Wvs North Alabama75–63
Wvs Lipscomb84–78
L@ Queens University Royals84–91

A week or more of rest.

Loyola Chicago

9-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Davidson59–64
Wvs Richmond75–67
Wvs G Washington68–62
L@ Saint Louis65–79
Wvs Richmond69–66

A week or more of rest.

West Georgia Wolves at Loyola Chicago Ramblers

What could decide it: LUC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

West Georgia

Loyola Chicago

Loyola Chicago has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

West Georgia

Loyola Chicago