VMI Keydets at SMU Mustangs: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 8:00 PM ETMoody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU

#320VMIVMI

#55SMUSMU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: VMI and SMU
VMI	This season	SMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMU 91–63 · win probability SMU 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMU has more of the edges

VMI 1, SMU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SMUBig

SMU offense vs VMI defense

Offense 45th of 366 against a defense 342nd, on the model’s ratings

SMUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: VMI 47.5 and allows 57.0; SMU 55.6 and allows 51.6

SMUBig

VMI offense vs SMU defense

Offense 288th of 366 against a defense 69th, on the model’s ratings

SMUBig

Three-pointers

VMI hits 31.5% and allows 36.5%; SMU hits 37.1% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 53.6% and 35.9% of their shots

SMUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: VMI 25.6%, SMU 35.4%. Defensive: VMI 62.8%, SMU 68.4%

Context

Schedule so far

VMI has played the 253rd-hardest schedule, SMU the 70th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: VMI plays 67.6 a game (251st fastest), SMU 71.1 (68th). Faster games mean more points

VMISmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: VMI 59%, SMU 20%. Transfers in: VMI 1, SMU 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

SMUSmall

Home court

SMU at home. This season: SMU 0-0 at home, VMI 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: VMI 30.6, SMU 30.4. Allowed: VMI 34.6, SMU 32.1

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: VMI 15.3%, SMU 15.8%. Forced: VMI 15.7%, SMU 16.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SMU -27.9	—
Total	—	154.2	—
Projected score	—	VMI 63.1 · SMU 91

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SMU -16.4	—
1H total	72.1	—
1H projected score	VMI 27.8 · SMU 44.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VMI WLLWL	9-20	31%	7-8	—
SMU LLWWL	15-19	44%	8-10	—

Venue/role: VMI away; SMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
VMI UUUOU	13-16	45%	3-26
SMU UOOUO	20-14	59%	20-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VMI	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
SMU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

VMI

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ UTSA	No recent meeting
Nov 11	vs NCCU	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ LONG	L49–68LU

SMU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs PV	W110–69WO
Nov 13	vs BALL	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs ORU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

VMI

29 games played

Straight up

3-26

10% wins

Against the spread

9-20

31% covers · avg −5.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2610%

W L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

17 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-2031%

W L L L L L L W W W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1645%

U O U U O U U U O O U O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USI	W 78-74	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 9	@MIZ	L 68-106	+23.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsJAX	L 67-69	+1.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 19	@RICH	L 54-87	+14.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	@STET	L 80-99	-2.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsBUF	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBGSU	L 48-81	+11.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Nov 29	@UCF	L 57-82	+25.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsL-MD	W 86-70	+2.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 21	@RAD	L 90-97	+11.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 187
Jan 1	vsSAM	L 58-78	+6.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 136
Jan 3	vsUTC	W 79-71	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 7	@ETSU	L 67-81	+16.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 148
Jan 10	@FUR	L 48-69	+12.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsMER	L 67-77	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsCIT	L 68-82	-6.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsUNCG	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 24	@WCU	L 58-88	+8.5	L −21.5	152.5	U 146
Jan 29	@CIT	L 56-80	+2.5	L −21.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 31	@MER	L 81-95	+18.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 176
Feb 4	vsWOF	L 67-81	+8.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsETSU	L 70-87	+14.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 157
Feb 11	@UNCG	L 71-92	+8.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsFUR	L 72-90	+11.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 18	@WOF	L 76-82	+13.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 158
Feb 21	vsWCU	L 62-81	+8.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 143
Feb 26	@SAM	L 61-80	+17.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 28	@UTC	L 79-86	+11.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsUNCG	L 70-84	+7.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 78-74

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

−14.5

JAX

L 67-69

−0.5

RICH

L 54-87

−18.5

STET

L 80-99

−21.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−21.5

UCF

L 57-82

+0.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+18.5

RAD

L 90-97

+4.5

SAM

L 58-78

−13.5

UTC

W 79-71

+14.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+2.5

FUR

L 48-69

−8.5

MER

L 67-77

−1.5

CIT

L 68-82

−20.5

UNCG

L 78-85

−4.5

WCU

L 58-88

−21.5

CIT

L 56-80

−21.5

MER

L 81-95

+4.5

WOF

L 67-81

−5.5

ETSU

L 70-87

−2.5

UNCG

L 71-92

−12.5

FUR

L 72-90

−6.5

WOF

L 76-82

+7.5

WCU

L 62-81

−10.5

SAM

L 61-80

−1.5

UTC

L 79-86

+4.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−6.5

covered 9didn’t cover 20avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 78-74

−1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

+12.5

JAX

L 67-69

−15.5

RICH

L 54-87

−11.5

STET

L 80-99

+30.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−19.5

UCF

L 57-82

−20.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+4.5

RAD

L 90-97

+28.5

SAM

L 58-78

−18.5

UTC

W 79-71

+0.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+1.5

FUR

L 48-69

−32.5

MER

L 67-77

−9.5

CIT

L 68-82

+6.5

UNCG

L 78-85

+11.5

WCU

L 58-88

−6.5

CIT

L 56-80

−6.5

MER

L 81-95

+22.5

WOF

L 67-81

−1.5

ETSU

L 70-87

+13.5

UNCG

L 71-92

+12.5

FUR

L 72-90

+13.5

WOF

L 76-82

−0.5

WCU

L 62-81

−11.5

SAM

L 61-80

−14.5

UTC

L 79-86

+10.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−0.5

over 13under 16avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

SMU

34 games played

Straight up

20-14

59% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-14

59% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1459%

W W W W W W W W L W L W W W L L W L W W L L W W L W W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1944%

L L W L W W L W L W L L W W L W L L W L L W W L L W W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1459%

O U O O U U U O U O O O O O U O U U O U U O O O U O O U O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTAR	W 96-76	-21.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 172
Nov 6	vsAMCC	W 69-58	-23.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 127
Nov 11	vsMUR	W 102-91	-10.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 193
Nov 15	vsBTLR	W 87-85	-7.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUAPB	W 106-60	-35.5	W +10.5	168.5	U 166
Nov 21	vsARST	W 100-69	-14.5	W +16.5	172.5	U 169
Nov 24	vsRAD	W 89-72	-23.5	L −6.5	165.5	U 161
Nov 28	@MSST	W 87-81	+1.5	W +7.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 3	@VAN	L 69-88	+10.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 157
Dec 7	vsTA&M	W 93-80	+1.5	W +14.5	164.5	O 173
Dec 13	vsLSU	L 77-89	+1.5	L −10.5	158.5	O 166
Dec 21	vsCARK	W 99-82	-24.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 181
Dec 28	vsCSUF	W 110-63	-21.5	W +25.5	170.5	O 173
Jan 3	vsUNC	W 97-83	-1.5	W +12.5	155.5	O 180
Jan 7	@CLEM	L 70-74	+3.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 144
Jan 10	@DUKE	L 75-82	+15.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 157
Jan 14	vsVT	W 77-76	-8.5	L −7.5	155.5	U 153
Jan 17	vsUVA	L 68-72	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 140
Jan 20	@WAKE	W 91-79	+1.5	W +13.5	157.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsFSU	W 83-80	-11.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 163
Jan 31	@LOU	L 74-88	+9.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 162
Feb 3	vsNCSU	L 83-84	+1.5	W +0.5	159.5	O 167
Feb 7	@PITT	W 86-67	-4.5	W +14.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 10	vsND	W 89-81	-10.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 170
Feb 14	@SYR	L 78-79	-1.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 157
Feb 17	vsLOU	W 95-85	+4.5	W +14.5	168.5	O 180
Feb 21	vsBC	W 94-70	-15.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 25	@CAL	L 69-73	-4.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 142
Feb 28	@STAN	L 75-95	-1.5	L −21.5	155.5	O 170
Mar 4	vsMIA	L 69-77	-1.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 7	@FSU	L 78-91	+1.5	L −11.5	158.5	O 169
Mar 10	vsSYR	W 86-69	-3.5	W +13.5	154.5	O 155
Mar 11	vsLOU	L 58-62	+7.5	W +3.5	164.5	U 120
Mar 18	vsM-OH	L 79-89	-6.5	L −16.5	162.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TAR

W 96-76

−1.5

AMCC

W 69-58

−12.5

MUR

W 102-91

+0.5

BTLR

W 87-85

−5.5

UAPB

W 106-60

+10.5

ARST

W 100-69

+16.5

RAD

W 89-72

−6.5

MSST

W 87-81

+7.5

VAN

L 69-88

−8.5

TA&M

W 93-80

+14.5

LSU

L 77-89

−10.5

CARK

W 99-82

−7.5

CSUF

W 110-63

+25.5

UNC

W 97-83

+12.5

CLEM

L 70-74

−0.5

DUKE

L 75-82

+8.5

W 77-76

−7.5

UVA

L 68-72

−1.5

WAKE

W 91-79

+13.5

FSU

W 83-80

−8.5

LOU

L 74-88

−4.5

NCSU

L 83-84

+0.5

PITT

W 86-67

+14.5

W 89-81

−2.5

SYR

L 78-79

−2.5

LOU

W 95-85

+14.5

W 94-70

+8.5

CAL

L 69-73

−8.5

STAN

L 75-95

−21.5

MIA

L 69-77

−9.5

FSU

L 78-91

−11.5

SYR

W 86-69

+13.5

LOU

L 58-62

+3.5

M-OH

L 79-89

−16.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TAR

W 96-76

+27.5

AMCC

W 69-58

−33.5

MUR

W 102-91

+28.5

BTLR

W 87-85

+8.5

UAPB

W 106-60

−2.5

ARST

W 100-69

−3.5

RAD

W 89-72

−4.5

MSST

W 87-81

+5.5

VAN

L 69-88

−8.5

TA&M

W 93-80

+8.5

LSU

L 77-89

+7.5

CARK

W 99-82

+24.5

CSUF

W 110-63

+2.5

UNC

W 97-83

+24.5

CLEM

L 70-74

−5.5

DUKE

L 75-82

+1.5

W 77-76

−2.5

UVA

L 68-72

−13.5

WAKE

W 91-79

+12.5

FSU

W 83-80

−0.5

LOU

L 74-88

−1.5

NCSU

L 83-84

+7.5

PITT

W 86-67

+5.5

W 89-81

+15.5

SYR

L 78-79

−0.5

LOU

W 95-85

+11.5

W 94-70

+13.5

CAL

L 69-73

−21.5

STAN

L 75-95

+14.5

MIA

L 69-77

−10.5

FSU

L 78-91

+10.5

SYR

W 86-69

+0.5

LOU

L 58-62

−44.5

M-OH

L 79-89

+5.5

over 20under 14avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SMU has the better starters

Position by position: VMI 0, SMU 3, even 2

VMIBetterSMU

G A. Clark6.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

SMUBig

G R. Brumbaugh TR19.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 95

G W. Andrews3.9 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

SMUBig

G D. Terrell TR13.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.9 ast Score 89

F T. Johnson18.1 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 75

Even

G O. Sellers TR10.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 78

F C. Liston4.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2

SMUBig

G J. Patrick TR7.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 59

F A. Daushvili6.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Munch TR7.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 69

VMIBetterSMU

VMI offense288th of 366 · -8.9

SMUBig

SMU defense69th of 366 · +0.8

VMI defense342nd of 366 · -9.1

SMUBig

SMU offense45th of 366 · +4.2

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

SMUBig

Backcourt+8.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players

SMUSmall

Frontcourt+0.7 · 1 player

Bench-0.8 · 3 players

SMUSmall

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestVMI betterSMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

VMI

Guards

A. Clark27 minW. Andrews12 minT. Johnson9 min · TRB. Edmonds2 minM. Lawson2 minR. BradleyNew

Forwards

T. Johnson37 minC. Liston22 minA. Daushvili17 minR. PetersNewP. NarvilasNewJ. PanzoNew

SMU

Guards

R. Brumbaugh36 min · TRD. Terrell33 min · TRO. Sellers29 min · TRJ. Patrick20 min · TRN. Kalischer-Stork1 minG. NormandNew

Forwards

J. Munch21 min · TRJ. Toombs20 minJ. Stewart16 min · TRN. Codie16 min · TRJ. O'Neal15 minN. Walls3 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

VMI68.5 #306

SMU84.1 #19

Points per possession

VMI1.01 #311

SMU1.19 #26

Pace (possessions)

VMI67.6 #251

SMU71.1 #68

Shooting

Effective FG%

VMI47.5 #325

SMU55.6 #27

3-point %

VMI31.5 #306

SMU37.1 #27

3-point attempt rate

VMI53.6 #2

SMU35.9 #252

Free throw rate

VMI30.6 #293

SMU30.4 #301

Possessions

Turnover rate

VMI15.3 #88

SMU15.8 #119

Offensive rebound rate

VMI25.6 #330

SMU35.4 #37

Assists per game

VMI11.6 #309

SMU16.9 #27

Defense

Points allowed

VMI83.2 #348

SMU77.9 #265

Points allowed per possession

VMI1.23 #362

SMU1.09 #199

Opponent effective FG%

VMI57.0 #357

SMU51.6 #189

Opponent 3-point %

VMI36.5 #327

SMU34.1 #188

Turnovers forced

VMI15.7 #239

SMU16.8 #171

Defensive rebound rate

VMI62.8 #360

SMU68.4 #237

Steals per game

VMI6.6 #160

SMU7.0 #129

Blocks per game

VMI2.0 #343

SMU3.6 #132

VMI		SMU
Scoring
68.5 #306	Points per game	84.1 #19
1.01 #311	Points per possession	1.19 #26
67.6 #251	Pace (possessions)	71.1 #68
Shooting
47.5 #325	Effective FG%	55.6 #27
31.5 #306	3-point %	37.1 #27
53.6 #2	3-point attempt rate	35.9 #252
30.6 #293	Free throw rate	30.4 #301
Possessions
15.3 #88	Turnover rate	15.8 #119
25.6 #330	Offensive rebound rate	35.4 #37
11.6 #309	Assists per game	16.9 #27
Defense
83.2 #348	Points allowed	77.9 #265
1.23 #362	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #199
57.0 #357	Opponent effective FG%	51.6 #189
36.5 #327	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #188
15.7 #239	Turnovers forced	16.8 #171
62.8 #360	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #237
6.6 #160	Steals per game	7.0 #129
2.0 #343	Blocks per game	3.6 #132

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

VMI

3-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Greensboro70–84
L@ Chattanooga79–86
L@ Samford61–80
Lvs W Carolina62–81
L@ Wofford76–82

A week or more of rest.

SMU

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Miami OH79–89
Lvs Louisville58–62
Wvs Syracuse86–69
L@ Florida St78–91
Lvs Miami69–77

A week or more of rest.

VMI Keydets at SMU Mustangs

What could decide it: SMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

VMI

SMU

SMU has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

VMI

SMU