Alabama Crimson Tide at Miami Hurricanes: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 9:15 PM ETWatsco Center · at Miami

#15ALAAlabama AP #20

#25MIAMiami AP #14

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alabama and Miami
ALA	This season	MIA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 83–83 · win probability MIA 50%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 165.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

ALA 2, MIA 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MIABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ALA 32.4%, MIA 37.2%. Defensive: ALA 67.2%, MIA 74.1%

ALASmall

Three-pointers

ALA hits 35.8% and allows 33.8%; MIA hits 34.9% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 54.3% and 31.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: ALA plays 74.7 a game (7th fastest), MIA 69.2 (170th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

ALA has played the 1st-hardest schedule, MIA the 75th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MIASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ALA 13.1%, MIA 16.1%. Forced: ALA 12.8%, MIA 18.3%

ALASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ALA 55.2 and allows 49.2; MIA 55.3 and allows 51.8

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 0-0 at home, ALA 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ALA 36.0, MIA 37.1. Allowed: ALA 32.0, MIA 29.5

Even

MIA offense vs ALA defense

Offense 30th of 366 against a defense 54th, on the model’s ratings

Even

ALA offense vs MIA defense

Offense 2nd of 366 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ALA 46%, MIA 52%. Transfers in: ALA 3, MIA 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MIA -0.1	—
Total	—	165.2	—
Projected score	—	ALA 82.5 · MIA 82.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ALA -0.1	—
1H total	77.1	—
1H projected score	ALA 38.6 · MIA 38.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WLWWL	16-19	46%	5-5	—
MIA LWLWL	19-16	54%	8-10	—

Venue/role: ALA away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OUOUU	19-16	54%	25-10
MIA OUUOO	21-14	60%	26-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MIA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alabama

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs HOU	W85–80WO
Dec 12	vs SJU	W103–96WO

Miami

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs STET	W102–61WO
Dec 12	vs TEX	W88–81WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ALA 1–0 MIAALA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ALA 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 28, 2021-22	MIA 64 vs ALA 96	ALA -9	ALA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama

35 games played

Straight up

25-10

71% wins

Against the spread

16-19

46% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-16

54% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1071%

W W L W L W W W W L W W W W L L W W L W L W W W W W W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1946%

L W L W L W W L W L L L W W L L W L L W L L W W L L L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1654%

U O U U O O O O U U O U O U O O O U U U O O O O U O O U U O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUND	W 91-62	-36.5	L −7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 8	@SJU	W 103-96	+4.5	W +11.5	172.5	O 199
Nov 13	vsPUR	L 80-87	-3.5	L −10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 19	vsILL	W 90-86	+2.5	W +6.5	180.5	U 176
Nov 24	vsGONZ	L 85-95	+4.5	L −5.5	178.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsUNLV	W 115-76	-13.5	W +25.5	181.5	O 191
Nov 26	vsMD	W 105-72	-14.5	W +18.5	166.5	O 177
Dec 3	vsCLEM	W 90-84	-8.5	L −2.5	165.5	O 174
Dec 7	vsUTSA	W 97-55	-33.5	W +8.5	171.5	U 152
Dec 13	vsARIZ	L 75-96	+2.5	L −18.5	178.5	U 171
Dec 17	vsUSF	W 104-93	-14.5	L −3.5	178.5	O 197
Dec 21	vsKENN	W 92-81	-20.5	L −9.5	182.5	U 173
Dec 29	vsYALE	W 102-78	-15.5	W +8.5	171.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsUK	W 89-74	-5.5	W +9.5	173.5	U 163
Jan 7	@VAN	L 90-96	+3.5	L −2.5	176.5	O 186
Jan 10	vsTEX	L 88-92	-11.5	L −15.5	177.5	O 180
Jan 13	@MSST	W 97-82	-4.5	W +10.5	171.5	O 179
Jan 17	@OU	W 83-81	-5.5	L −3.5	177.5	U 164
Jan 24	vsTENN	L 73-79	-4.5	L −10.5	167.5	U 152
Jan 27	vsMIZ	W 90-64	-10.5	W +15.5	167.5	U 154
Feb 1	@FLA	L 77-100	+9.5	L −13.5	176.5	O 177
Feb 4	vsTA&M	W 100-97	-8.5	L −5.5	180.5	O 197
Feb 7	@AUB	W 96-92	+2.5	W +6.5	175.5	O 188
Feb 11	@MISS	W 93-74	-6.5	W +12.5	164.5	O 167
Feb 14	vsSC	W 89-75	-17.5	L −3.5	170.5	U 164
Feb 18	vsARK	W 117-115	-3.5	L −1.5	181.5	O 232
Feb 21	@LSU	W 90-83	-7.5	L −0.5	172.5	O 173
Feb 25	vsMSST	W 100-75	-12.5	W +12.5	176.5	U 175
Feb 28	@TENN	W 71-69	+5.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 140
Mar 3	@UGA	L 88-98	-1.5	L −11.5	179.5	O 186
Mar 7	vsAUB	W 96-84	-5.5	W +6.5	175.5	O 180
Mar 13	vsMISS	L 79-80	-12.5	L −13.5	166.5	U 159
Mar 20	vsHOF	W 90-70	-11.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 160
Mar 22	vsTTU	W 90-65	-1.5	W +23.5	164.5	U 155
Mar 27	vsMICH	L 77-90	+9.5	L −3.5	172.5	U 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−7.5

SJU

W 103-96

+11.5

PUR

L 80-87

−10.5

ILL

W 90-86

+6.5

GONZ

L 85-95

−5.5

UNLV

W 115-76

+25.5

W 105-72

+18.5

CLEM

W 90-84

−2.5

UTSA

W 97-55

+8.5

ARIZ

L 75-96

−18.5

USF

W 104-93

−3.5

KENN

W 92-81

−9.5

YALE

W 102-78

+8.5

W 89-74

+9.5

VAN

L 90-96

−2.5

TEX

L 88-92

−15.5

MSST

W 97-82

+10.5

W 83-81

−3.5

TENN

L 73-79

−10.5

MIZ

W 90-64

+15.5

FLA

L 77-100

−13.5

TA&M

W 100-97

−5.5

AUB

W 96-92

+6.5

MISS

W 93-74

+12.5

W 89-75

−3.5

ARK

W 117-115

−1.5

LSU

W 90-83

−0.5

MSST

W 100-75

+12.5

TENN

W 71-69

+7.5

UGA

L 88-98

−11.5

AUB

W 96-84

+6.5

MISS

L 79-80

−13.5

HOF

W 90-70

+8.5

TTU

W 90-65

+23.5

MICH

L 77-90

−3.5

covered 16didn’t cover 19avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−17.5

SJU

W 103-96

+26.5

PUR

L 80-87

−5.5

ILL

W 90-86

−4.5

GONZ

L 85-95

+1.5

UNLV

W 115-76

+9.5

W 105-72

+10.5

CLEM

W 90-84

+8.5

UTSA

W 97-55

−19.5

ARIZ

L 75-96

−7.5

USF

W 104-93

+18.5

KENN

W 92-81

−9.5

YALE

W 102-78

+8.5

W 89-74

−10.5

VAN

L 90-96

+9.5

TEX

L 88-92

+2.5

MSST

W 97-82

+7.5

W 83-81

−13.5

TENN

L 73-79

−15.5

MIZ

W 90-64

−13.5

FLA

L 77-100

+0.5

TA&M

W 100-97

+16.5

AUB

W 96-92

+12.5

MISS

W 93-74

+2.5

W 89-75

−6.5

ARK

W 117-115

+50.5

LSU

W 90-83

+0.5

MSST

W 100-75

−1.5

TENN

W 71-69

−22.5

UGA

L 88-98

+6.5

AUB

W 96-84

+4.5

MISS

L 79-80

−7.5

HOF

W 90-70

+1.5

TTU

W 90-65

−9.5

MICH

L 77-90

−5.5

over 19under 16avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Miami

35 games played

Straight up

26-9

74% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-14

60% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-974%

W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W W W L L W W L W W W W L W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L W W L W W L W W W L L W L W L W L L W L L L W W L W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

21-1460%

O O O U O U U U U O O O O O O O O U U O O O O U U U O O U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJAX	W 86-69	-18.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 155
Nov 6	vsBCU	W 101-61	-16.5	W +23.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsSTET	W 102-61	-34.5	W +6.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 16	vsFLA	L 68-82	+10.5	L −3.5	171.5	U 150
Nov 20	vsELON	W 99-72	-19.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsDSU	W 97-41	-34.5	W +21.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 27	vsBYU	L 62-72	+7.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 134
Nov 28	vsGTWN	W 78-65	-5.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 143
Dec 2	@MISS	W 75-66	+1.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 141
Dec 6	vsUSM	W 88-64	-19.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 152
Dec 13	vsULM	W 104-79	-35.5	L −10.5	153.5	O 183
Dec 16	vsFIU	W 98-81	-22.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 179
Dec 21	vsUNF	W 105-67	-37.5	W +0.5	171.5	O 172
Dec 30	vsPITT	W 76-69	-9.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 7	@WAKE	W 81-77	+1.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 158
Jan 10	vsGT	W 91-81	-15.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 13	@ND	W 81-69	-5.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 17	@CLEM	L 59-69	+4.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 128
Jan 20	vsFSU	L 63-65	-10.5	L −12.5	163.5	U 128
Jan 24	@SYR	W 85-76	-1.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 161
Jan 28	vsSTAN	W 79-70	-9.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 31	vsCAL	L 85-86	-11.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 171
Feb 7	@BC	W 74-68	-8.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 10	vsUNC	W 75-66	-1.5	W +7.5	156.5	U 141
Feb 14	@NCSU	W 77-76	+5.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 153
Feb 17	vsVT	W 67-66	-8.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 133
Feb 21	@UVA	L 83-86	+7.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	@FSU	W 83-73	-2.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsBC	W 76-54	-15.5	W +6.5	143.5	U 130
Mar 4	@SMU	W 77-69	+1.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 7	vsLOU	L 89-92	-1.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 181
Mar 12	vsLOU	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	153.5	U 151
Mar 13	vsUVA	L 62-84	+3.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 146
Mar 20	vsMIZ	W 80-66	-1.5	W +12.5	144.5	O 146
Mar 22	vsPUR	L 69-79	+8.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JAX

W 86-69

−1.5

BCU

W 101-61

+23.5

STET

W 102-61

+6.5

FLA

L 68-82

−3.5

ELON

W 99-72

+7.5

DSU

W 97-41

+21.5

BYU

L 62-72

−2.5

GTWN

W 78-65

+7.5

MISS

W 75-66

+10.5

USM

W 88-64

+4.5

ULM

W 104-79

−10.5

FIU

W 98-81

−5.5

UNF

W 105-67

+0.5

PITT

W 76-69

−2.5

WAKE

W 81-77

+5.5

W 91-81

−5.5

W 81-69

+6.5

CLEM

L 59-69

−5.5

FSU

L 63-65

−12.5

SYR

W 85-76

+7.5

STAN

W 79-70

−0.5

CAL

L 85-86

−12.5

W 74-68

−2.5

UNC

W 75-66

+7.5

NCSU

W 77-76

+6.5

W 67-66

−7.5

UVA

L 83-86

+4.5

FSU

W 83-73

+7.5

W 76-54

+6.5

SMU

W 77-69

+9.5

LOU

L 89-92

−4.5

LOU

W 78-73

+6.5

UVA

L 62-84

−18.5

MIZ

W 80-66

+12.5

PUR

L 69-79

−1.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JAX

W 86-69

+12.5

BCU

W 101-61

+7.5

STET

W 102-61

+1.5

FLA

L 68-82

−21.5

ELON

W 99-72

+6.5

DSU

W 97-41

−13.5

BYU

L 62-72

−31.5

GTWN

W 78-65

−8.5

MISS

W 75-66

−4.5

USM

W 88-64

+6.5

ULM

W 104-79

+29.5

FIU

W 98-81

+17.5

UNF

W 105-67

+0.5

PITT

W 76-69

+0.5

WAKE

W 81-77

+0.5

W 91-81

+15.5

W 81-69

+6.5

CLEM

L 59-69

−15.5

FSU

L 63-65

−35.5

SYR

W 85-76

+11.5

STAN

W 79-70

+1.5

CAL

L 85-86

+22.5

W 74-68

+0.5

UNC

W 75-66

−15.5

NCSU

W 77-76

−4.5

W 67-66

−15.5

UVA

L 83-86

+23.5

FSU

W 83-73

+3.5

W 76-54

−13.5

SMU

W 77-69

−10.5

LOU

L 89-92

+25.5

LOU

W 78-73

−2.5

UVA

L 62-84

−0.5

MIZ

W 80-66

+1.5

PUR

L 69-79

+1.5

over 21under 14avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Miami has the better starters

Position by position: Alabama 1, Miami 2, even 2

AlabamaBetterMiami

G A. Holloway16.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

ALASmall

G B. Bland TR13.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

G A. Allen11.4 pts · 6.9 reb · 3.1 ast Score 94

Even

G A. Lewis TR12.2 pts · 3 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

F D. Fielder TR14.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98

Even

F D. Goode TR15.7 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94

F J. Davis-Fleming TR3.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59

MIASmall

F S. Henderson13.8 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81

F B. Garrison TR4.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73

MIASmall

F M. Reneau18.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 98

AlabamaBetterMiami

ALA offense2nd of 366 · +13.7

Even

MIA defense26th of 366 · +4.3

ALA defense54th of 366 · +1.5

Even

MIA offense30th of 366 · +6.0

Backcourt+8.7 · 2 players

ALABig

Backcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.2 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players

Bench+0.5 · 4 players

MIASmall

Bench+3.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestALA betterMIA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alabama

Guards

A. Holloway28 minA. Allen28 minP. Murphy3 minC. CloerNewQ. SamuelsNewA. DiazNew

Forwards

D. Fielder24 min · TRJ. Davis-Fleming20 min · TRB. Garrison16 min · TRL. Jemison16 minK. Bristow13 minJ. RichardsonNew

Centers

C. Onyejiaka6 minT. St. LouisNew

Miami

Guards

B. Bland34 min · TRA. Lewis31 min · TRD. Allen24 minN. Dorn23 min · TRL. Cason19 min · TRQ. Berger17 min · TR

Forwards

D. Goode31 min · TRS. Henderson31 minM. Reneau29 minR. Miller19 min · TRM. Allen19 minC. GaskinsNew

Centers

S. Cyril21 min · TRE. RyzhovNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ALA91.2 #1

MIA81.5 #39

Points per possession

ALA1.22 #5

MIA1.18 #38

Pace (possessions)

ALA74.7 #7

MIA69.2 #170

Shooting

Effective FG%

ALA55.2 #34

MIA55.3 #32

3-point %

ALA35.8 #66

MIA34.9 #127

3-point attempt rate

ALA54.3 #1

MIA31.9 #331

Free throw rate

ALA36.0 #150

MIA37.1 #125

Possessions

Turnover rate

ALA13.1 #10

MIA16.1 #147

Offensive rebound rate

ALA32.4 #111

MIA37.2 #14

Assists per game

ALA16.3 #39

MIA16.2 #42

Defense

Points allowed

ALA82.7 #343

MIA71.2 #79

Points allowed per possession

ALA1.11 #232

MIA1.03 #60

Opponent effective FG%

ALA49.2 #73

MIA51.8 #198

Opponent 3-point %

ALA33.8 #170

MIA35.8 #296

Turnovers forced

ALA12.8 #361

MIA18.3 #87

Defensive rebound rate

ALA67.2 #295

MIA74.1 #19

Steals per game

ALA6.4 #186

MIA7.9 #48

Blocks per game

ALA5.0 #17

MIA3.3 #174

ALA		MIA
Scoring
91.2 #1	Points per game	81.5 #39
1.22 #5	Points per possession	1.18 #38
74.7 #7	Pace (possessions)	69.2 #170
Shooting
55.2 #34	Effective FG%	55.3 #32
35.8 #66	3-point %	34.9 #127
54.3 #1	3-point attempt rate	31.9 #331
36.0 #150	Free throw rate	37.1 #125
Possessions
13.1 #10	Turnover rate	16.1 #147
32.4 #111	Offensive rebound rate	37.2 #14
16.3 #39	Assists per game	16.2 #42
Defense
82.7 #343	Points allowed	71.2 #79
1.11 #232	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #60
49.2 #73	Opponent effective FG%	51.8 #198
33.8 #170	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #296
12.8 #361	Turnovers forced	18.3 #87
67.2 #295	Defensive rebound rate	74.1 #19
6.4 #186	Steals per game	7.9 #48
5.0 #17	Blocks per game	3.3 #174

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama

25-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan77–90
Wvs Texas Tech90–65
Wvs Hofstra90–70
Lvs Ole Miss79–80
Wvs Auburn96–84

A week or more of rest.

Miami

26-9 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue69–79
Wvs Missouri80–66
Lvs Virginia62–84
Wvs Louisville78–73
Lvs Louisville89–92

A week or more of rest.

Alabama @ Miami

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama

Miami

Miami has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alabama

Miami