Xfinity Mobile Arena · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
TENN -1.5✓ TENN covered by 5.5
TENN -1.5✓ TENN covered by 5.5Closing total137.5Over by 13.5
| TENN | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 23-11 | Record | 30-5 |
| 15-19 | ATS | 18-17 |
| 16-18 | O/U | 15-20 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TENN 73–69 UVA · ✓ TENN (62%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 36 | 43 | 79 |
| UVA | 31 | 41 | 72 |
1st half: TENN 36, UVA 31 (TENN by 5). The model had TENN by 2.2 and a total of 66.4 (actual 67).
Team stats
| TENN | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-55 47% | Field goals | 27-69 39% |
| 8-19 42% | 3-pointers | 12-35 34% |
| 19-25 76% | Free throws | 6-11 55% |
| 39 11 off | Rebounds | 35 16 off |
| 20 | Assists | 12 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 6 | Blocks | 5 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 38 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 6-14 | 3-5 |
| Bishop Boswell G | 35 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 4-10 | 4-9 |
| Felix Okpara F | 34 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Nate Ament F | 29 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 4-11 | 1-3 |
| J.P. Estrella F | 20 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Carey F | 17 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Amari Evans G | 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| DeWayne Brown II F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ethan Burg G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Troy Henderson G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Grant Hurst, Clarence Massamba, Gavin Paull, Campbell Duncan, Cade Phillips, Amaree Abram
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thijs De Ridder F | 31 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 8-14 | 4-6 |
| Dallin Hall G | 30 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3-10 | 1-4 |
| Sam Lewis G | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-5 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 21 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Malik Thomas G | 15 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 4-10 | 3-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jacari White G | 28 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3-12 | 2-9 |
| Chance Mallory G | 25 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Devin Tillis F | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Desmond Roberts, Carter Lang, Elijah Gertrude, Martin Carrere, Silas Barksdale, Owen Odom
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTENN -1.5
ModelTENN -3.4
Model edgeTENN +1.9
W TENN covered
Total
Market137.5
Model141.8
Model edgeOver 4.3
W Over
Projected score
TENN 72.6 · UVA 69.2
TENN 79 · UVA 72
Win probability
TENN 62%
1st half
Spread
TENN -2.2
TENN -5.0
Total
66.4
67 points
Projected score
TENN 34.3 · UVA 32.1
TENN 36 · UVA 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTENN -1.5
no move
CloseTENN -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open136.5
▲ 1
Close137.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
TENN -115 · UVA -105
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TENN -1.5 · unchangedmodel TENN -3.5
model TENN -3.5
Opened 136.5 · closed 137.5 · moved 1 upmodel 142
model 142
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
| UVA | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
TENN 1–0 UVATENN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TENN 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2024-25 | UVA 42 vs TENN 64 | TENN -12.5 | TENN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee
34 games played
Straight up
23-11
68% wins
Against the spread
15-19
44% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-18
47% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MER | W 76-61 | -28.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs NKU | W 95-56 | -27.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNF | W 99-66 | -41.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 17 | vs RICE | W 91-66 | -26.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 20 | vs TNST | W 89-60 | -31.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs RUTG | W 85-60 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vs HOU | W 76-73 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs KU | L 76-81 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | @ SYR | L 60-62 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs ILL | L 62-75 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 16 | vs LOU | W 83-62 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 21 | vs GWEB | W 94-52 | -42.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 30 | vs SCST | W 105-54 | -44.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | @ ARK | L 75-86 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 6 | vs TEX | W 85-71 | -12.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | @ FLA | L 67-91 | +4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 13 | vs TA&M | W 87-82 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 17 | vs UK | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 24 | @ ALA | W 79-73 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 167.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 28 | @ UGA | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 157.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 31 | vs AUB | W 77-69 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 3 | vs MISS | W 84-66 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 7 | @UK | L 71-74 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 11 | @ MSST | W 73-64 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 14 | vs LSU | W 73-63 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 18 | vs OU | W 89-66 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 21 | @ VAN | W 69-65 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 150.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 24 | @ MIZ | L 69-73 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 28 | vsALA | L 69-71 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | U 140 |
| Mar 3 | @ SC | W 78-59 | -10.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | U 137 |
| Mar 7 | vsVAN | L 82-86 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | O 168 |
| Mar 12 | vsAUB | W 72-62 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 13 | vsVAN | L 68-75 | -1.5 | L −8.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Mar 20 | vs M-OH | W 78-56 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 134 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+10.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+5.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
−12.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−9.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−14.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
+16.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−0.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+6.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
−12.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+1.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
−19.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
−6.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
−8.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
+10.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
−0.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
+2.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 84-66
+5.5
7
@UK
UKL 71-74
−1.5
11
@MSST
MSSTW 73-64
+0.5
14
vsLSU
LSUW 73-63
−4.5
18
vsOU
OUW 89-66
+11.5
21
@VAN
VANW 69-65
+6.5
24
@MIZ
MIZL 69-73
−7.5
28
vsALA
ALAL 69-71
−7.5
3
@SC
SCW 78-59
+8.5
7
vsVAN
VANL 82-86
−6.5
12
vsAUB
AUBW 72-62
+4.5
13
vsVAN
VANL 68-75
−8.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHW 78-56
+9.5
covered 15didn’t cover 19avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+3.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+12.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
+16.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−25.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−12.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
−11.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−6.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+11.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
+2.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+2.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
+6.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
+9.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
+12.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
−15.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
+13.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
−1.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 84-66
+10.5
7
@UK
UKL 71-74
−2.5
11
@MSST
MSSTW 73-64
−10.5
14
vsLSU
LSUW 73-63
−7.5
18
vsOU
OUW 89-66
+5.5
21
@VAN
VANW 69-65
−16.5
24
@MIZ
MIZL 69-73
−1.5
28
vsALA
ALAL 69-71
−22.5
3
@SC
SCW 78-59
−4.5
7
vsVAN
VANL 82-86
+21.5
12
vsAUB
AUBW 72-62
−10.5
13
vsVAN
VANL 68-75
−4.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHW 78-56
−14.5
over 16under 18avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
35 games played
Straight up
30-5
86% wins
Against the spread
18-17
51% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-20
43% overs · avg −0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @ VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vs CAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vs STAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 13 | @LOU | W 79-70 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ SMU | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vs UNC | L 80-85 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 27 | @ ND | W 100-97 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @ BC | W 73-66 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 3 | vs PITT | W 67-47 | -12.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | U 114 |
| Feb 7 | vsSYR | W 72-59 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 10 | @ FSU | W 61-58 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 14 | vs OSU | W 70-66 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 18 | @ GT | W 94-68 | -13.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 21 | vs MIA | W 86-83 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | vsNCSU | W 90-61 | -6.5 | W +22.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | @ DUKE | L 51-77 | +9.5 | L −16.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Mar 3 | vs WAKE | W 75-70 | -14.5 | L −9.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
| Mar 7 | vsVT | W 76-72 | -11.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Mar 12 | vsNCSU | W 81-74 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 153.5 | O 155 |
| Mar 13 | vsMIA | W 84-62 | -3.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 14 | vsDUKE | L 70-74 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 140.5 | O 144 |
| Mar 20 | vs WRST | W 82-73 | -17.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
+13.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
+1.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
−11.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
−6.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−6.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
+7.5
7
vsSYR
SYRW 72-59
−0.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 61-58
−5.5
14
vsOSU
OSUW 70-66
−1.5
18
@GT
GTW 94-68
+12.5
21
vsMIA
MIAW 86-83
−4.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUW 90-61
+22.5
28
@DUKE
DUKEL 51-77
−16.5
3
vsWAKE
WAKEW 75-70
−9.5
7
vsVT
VTW 76-72
−7.5
12
vsNCSU
NCSUW 81-74
+0.5
13
vsMIA
MIAW 84-62
+18.5
14
vsDUKE
DUKEL 70-74
+2.5
20
vsWRST
WRSTW 82-73
−8.5
covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
−5.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
−13.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
+12.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
+51.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−2.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
−28.5
7
vsSYR
SYRW 72-59
−16.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 61-58
−36.5
14
vsOSU
OSUW 70-66
−10.5
18
@GT
GTW 94-68
+11.5
21
vsMIA
MIAW 86-83
+23.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUW 90-61
−0.5
28
@DUKE
DUKEL 51-77
−15.5
3
vsWAKE
WAKEW 75-70
−5.5
7
vsVT
VTW 76-72
+2.5
12
vsNCSU
NCSUW 81-74
+1.5
13
vsMIA
MIAW 84-62
−0.5
14
vsDUKE
DUKEL 70-74
+3.5
20
vsWRST
WRSTW 82-73
+8.5
over 15under 20avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tennessee
23-11 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Miami OH78–56
- Lvs Vanderbilt68–75
- Wvs Auburn72–62
- Lvs Vanderbilt82–86
- W@ South Carolina78–59
2 days since their last game.
Virginia
30-5 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Wright St82–73
- Lvs Duke70–74
- Wvs Miami84–62
- Wvs NC State81–74
- Wvs Virginia Tech76–72
2 days since their last game.