Spectrum Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
UVA -3.5✓ UVA covered by 18.5
UVA -3.5✓ UVA covered by 18.5Closing total146.5Under by 0.5
 MIA | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 25-7 | Record | 28-4 |
| 18-14 | ATS | 16-16 |
| 19-13 | O/U | 13-19 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIA 74–75 UVA · ✓ UVA (54%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 23 | 39 | 62 |
| UVA | 38 | 46 | 84 |
1st half: MIA 23, UVA 38 (UVA by 15). The model had UVA by 0.7 and a total of 69.9 (actual 61).
Team stats
| MIA | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-57 39% | Field goals | 31-59 53% |
| 4-20 20% | 3-pointers | 11-26 42% |
| 14-15 93% | Free throws | 11-12 92% |
| 26 9 off | Rebounds | 38 12 off |
| 6 | Assists | 17 |
| 6 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 6 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelton Henderson F | 32 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 6-12 | 0-1 |
| Malik Reneau F | 32 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Dante Allen G | 29 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-2 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 25 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Tre Donaldson G | 24 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tru Washington G | 28 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 5-13 | 1-5 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2-7 | 2-6 |
| Timo Malovec F | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Treyvon Maddox, Jordyn Kee, Marcus Allen, JJ Laboy
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin Hall G | 31 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 28 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7-14 | 2-6 |
| Sam Lewis G | 26 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 6-9 | 4-5 |
| Malik Thomas G | 22 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 5-11 | 2-3 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 27 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 8-9 | 1-2 |
| Chance Mallory G | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Jacari White G | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Devin Tillis F | 11 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Elijah Gertrude G | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Martin Carrere G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Desmond Roberts G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Owen Odom G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Silas Barksdale, Carter Lang
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVA -3.5
ModelUVA -1.3
Model edgeMIA +2.2
L UVA covered
Total
Market146.5
Model149.4
Model edgeOver 2.9
L Under
Projected score
MIA 74.1 · UVA 75.4
MIA 62 · UVA 84
Win probability
UVA 54%
1st half
Spread
UVA -0.7
UVA -15.0
Total
69.9
61 points
Projected score
MIA 34.6 · UVA 35.3
MIA 23 · UVA 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -4.5
1 → MIA
CloseUVA -3.5
1 pt toward MIA
Total
Open143.5
▲ 3
Close146.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
MIA +145 · UVA -175
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -4.5 · closed UVA -3.5 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel UVA -1.5
model UVA -1.5
Opened 143.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 3 upmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
| UVA | 9-1 90% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
MIA 1–5 UVAUVA leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · UVA has won the last 3 meetings · MIA 2-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2025-26 | MIA 83 @ UVA 86 | UVA -7.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 29, 2024-25 | UVA 82 @ MIA 71 | MIA -2.5 | UVA W |
| Feb 5, 2023-24 | MIA 38 @ UVA 60 | UVA -5.5 | UVA W |
| Dec 20, 2022-23 | UVA 64 @ MIA 66 | MIA +3.5 | MIA W |
| Feb 19, 2021-22 | UVA 74 @ MIA 71 | MIA -2 | UVA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Miami
32 games played
Straight up
25-7
78% wins
Against the spread
18-14
56% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-13
59% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vs PITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 7 | @ WAKE | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | vs GT | W 91-81 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 13 | @ ND | W 81-69 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ CLEM | L 59-69 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 20 | vs FSU | L 63-65 | -10.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ SYR | W 85-76 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 28 | vs STAN | W 79-70 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 31 | vs CAL | L 85-86 | -11.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 7 | @ BC | W 74-68 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Feb 10 | vs UNC | W 75-66 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 14 | @ NCSU | W 77-76 | +5.5 | W +6.5 | 157.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | vs VT | W 67-66 | -8.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 21 | @UVA | L 83-86 | +7.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | @FSU | W 83-73 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | vsBC | W 76-54 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 4 | @ SMU | W 77-69 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 156.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 7 | vs LOU | L 89-92 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 12 | vsLOU | W 78-73 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | U 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+5.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
−5.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−5.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−12.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+7.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
−0.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
−12.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
−2.5
10
vsUNC
UNCW 75-66
+7.5
14
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
+6.5
17
vsVT
VTW 67-66
−7.5
21
@UVA
UVAL 83-86
+4.5
24
@FSU
FSUW 83-73
+7.5
28
vsBC
BCW 76-54
+6.5
4
@SMU
SMUW 77-69
+9.5
7
vsLOU
LOUL 89-92
−4.5
12
vsLOU
LOUW 78-73
+6.5
covered 18didn’t cover 14avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+0.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
+15.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−15.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−35.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+11.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
+1.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
+22.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
+0.5
10
vsUNC
UNCW 75-66
−15.5
14
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
−4.5
17
vsVT
VTW 67-66
−15.5
21
@UVA
UVAL 83-86
+23.5
24
@FSU
FSUW 83-73
+3.5
28
vsBC
BCW 76-54
−13.5
4
@SMU
SMUW 77-69
−10.5
7
vsLOU
LOUL 89-92
+25.5
12
vsLOU
LOUW 78-73
−2.5
over 19under 13avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
32 games played
Straight up
28-4
88% wins
Against the spread
16-16
50% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-19
41% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vsCAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vsSTAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 13 | @LOU | W 79-70 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @SMU | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vsUNC | L 80-85 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 27 | @ND | W 100-97 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @BC | W 73-66 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 3 | vsPITT | W 67-47 | -12.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | U 114 |
| Feb 7 | vsSYR | W 72-59 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 10 | @FSU | W 61-58 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 14 | vs OSU | W 70-66 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 18 | @GT | W 94-68 | -13.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 21 | vsMIA | W 86-83 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | vsNCSU | W 90-61 | -6.5 | W +22.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | @ DUKE | L 51-77 | +9.5 | L −16.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Mar 3 | vsWAKE | W 75-70 | -14.5 | L −9.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
| Mar 7 | vsVT | W 76-72 | -11.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Mar 12 | vsNCSU | W 81-74 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 153.5 | O 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
+13.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
+1.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
−11.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
−6.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−6.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
+7.5
7
vsSYR
SYRW 72-59
−0.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 61-58
−5.5
14
vsOSU
OSUW 70-66
−1.5
18
@GT
GTW 94-68
+12.5
21
vsMIA
MIAW 86-83
−4.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUW 90-61
+22.5
28
@DUKE
DUKEL 51-77
−16.5
3
vsWAKE
WAKEW 75-70
−9.5
7
vsVT
VTW 76-72
−7.5
12
vsNCSU
NCSUW 81-74
+0.5
covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
−5.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
−13.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
+12.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
+51.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−2.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
−28.5
7
vsSYR
SYRW 72-59
−16.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 61-58
−36.5
14
vsOSU
OSUW 70-66
−10.5
18
@GT
GTW 94-68
+11.5
21
vsMIA
MIAW 86-83
+23.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUW 90-61
−0.5
28
@DUKE
DUKEL 51-77
−15.5
3
vsWAKE
WAKEW 75-70
−5.5
7
vsVT
VTW 76-72
+2.5
12
vsNCSU
NCSUW 81-74
+1.5
over 13under 19avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Miami
25-7 overall · 14-5 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Louisville78–73
- Lvs Louisville89–92
- W@ SMU77–69
- Wvs Boston College76–54
- W@ Florida St83–73
1 day since their last game.
Virginia
28-4 overall · 16-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs NC State81–74
- Wvs Virginia Tech76–72
- Wvs Wake Forest75–70
- L@ Duke51–77
- Wvs NC State90–61
1 day since their last game.