Bryce Jordan Center · at Penn State · Conference game
Closing line
USC -3.5✓ PSU covered by 1.5
USC -3.5✓ PSU covered by 1.5Closing total157.5Under by 5.5
| USC | This season | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| 16-6 | Record | 10-13 |
| 12-10 | ATS | 9-14 |
| 12-10 | O/U | 14-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USC 82–78 PSU · ✓ USC (64%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 36 | 41 | 77 |
| PSU | 40 | 35 | 75 |
1st half: USC 36, PSU 40 (PSU by 4). The model had USC by 2.5 and a total of 75.1 (actual 76).
Team stats
| USC | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-60 48% | Field goals | 30-58 52% |
| 6-19 32% | 3-pointers | 6-18 33% |
| 13-18 72% | Free throws | 9-15 60% |
| 34 12 off | Rebounds | 31 9 off |
| 15 | Assists | 12 |
| 10 | Steals | 12 |
| 7 | Blocks | 3 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam Woods G | 36 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 6-13 | 0-4 |
| Alijah Arenas G | 35 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 8-17 | 3-6 |
| Jacob Cofie F | 34 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 28 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Cornish G | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Marsh G | 22 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 15 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Terrance Williams II F | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rodney Rice, Patrick O'Brien, Brit Burden, Amarion Dickerson, Jonah Goorin, EJ Neal Jr., Chad Baker-Mazara
| PSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Dilione V G | 38 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 10-18 | 1-3 |
| Josh Reed F | 37 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 8-11 | 1-3 |
| Dominick Stewart G | 34 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| Kayden Mingo G | 32 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-2 |
| Ivan Juric F | 26 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Melih Tunca G | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Justin Houser C | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Mason Blackwood F | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Reggie Grodin, Tibor Mirtic, Chris Lotito, Sasa Ciani, Eli Rice
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSC -3.5
no move
CloseUSC -3.5
No change since the open
Total
Open155.5
▲ 2
Close157.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
USC -192 · PSU +160
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USC -3.5 · unchangedmodel USC -4
model USC -4
Opened 155.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 2 upmodel 160.5
model 160.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC -3.5 | USC -4.0 | USC +0.5 | L PSU covered |
| Total | 157.5 | 160.6 | Over 3.1 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | USC 82.3 · PSU 78.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | USC -2.5 | PSU -4.0 |
| 1H total | 75.1 | 76 |
| 1H projected score | USC 38.8 · PSU 36.3 | USC 36 · PSU 40 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| PSU | 1-9 10% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
USC 1–0 PSUUSC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · USC 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2024-25 | PSU 67 @ USC 92 | USC -4.5 | USC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
USC
22 games played
Straight up
16-6
73% wins
Against the spread
12-10
55% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-10
55% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ ORE | W 82-77 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs WASH | L 76-84 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 9 | @ USD | W 94-81 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 14 | vs WSU | W 68-61 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTSA | W 97-70 | -25.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 2 | @ MICH | L 66-96 | +22.5 | L −7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 5 | @ MSU | L 51-80 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 9 | @ MINN | W 70-69 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 13 | vs MD | W 88-71 | -9.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 17 | vs PUR | L 64-69 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 21 | vs NU | L 68-74 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 25 | @ WIS | W 73-71 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 158.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @ IOWA | L 72-73 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 31 | vs RUTG | W 78-75 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 3 | vs IU | W 81-75 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+2.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
−12.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
−1.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−5.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+1.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−7.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−17.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
+4.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+7.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
+4.5
21
vsNU
NUL 68-74
−12.5
25
@WIS
WISW 73-71
+9.5
28
@IOWA
IOWAL 72-73
+8.5
31
vsRUTG
RUTGW 78-75
−8.5
3
vsIU
IUW 81-75
+7.5
covered 12didn’t cover 10avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+4.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
+5.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
+16.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−27.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+9.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−11.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−20.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
−8.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+8.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
−22.5
21
vsNU
NUL 68-74
−7.5
25
@WIS
WISW 73-71
−14.5
28
@IOWA
IOWAL 72-73
+3.5
31
vsRUTG
RUTGW 78-75
+6.5
3
vsIU
IUW 81-75
+2.5
over 12under 10avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Penn State
23 games played
Straight up
10-13
43% wins
Against the spread
9-14
39% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-9
61% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAIR | W 76-68 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 8 | @ NHVN | W 87-43 | -18.5 | W +25.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 11 | vs NAVY | W 80-71 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs LAS | W 83-69 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 19 | vs HARV | W 84-80 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PROV | L 65-77 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 25 | vs BU | W 96-87 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 29 | vs SHU | W 90-59 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 160.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs CAM | W 87-76 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 9 | @IU | L 72-113 | +14.5 | L −26.5 | 152.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 13 | vsMSU | L 72-76 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 21 | vs PITT | L 46-80 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 29 | vs NCCU | W 90-67 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 3 | vs ILL | L 65-73 | +14.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 6 | vsMICH | L 72-74 | +24.5 | W +22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | @PUR | L 85-93 | +22.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 14 | vs UCLA | L 60-71 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 18 | @MD | L 73-96 | +1.5 | L −21.5 | 148.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 22 | vsWIS | L 71-98 | +5.5 | L −21.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 26 | @ OSU | L 78-84 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 29 | @NU | L 73-94 | +7.5 | L −13.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 1 | vsMINN | W 77-75 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 5 | @MICH | L 69-110 | +26.5 | L −14.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
+25.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−2.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+5.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
−8.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−8.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
−5.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
+16.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
−3.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
−26.5
13
vsMSU
MSUL 72-76
+8.5
21
vsPITT
PITTL 46-80
−35.5
29
vsNCCU
NCCUW 90-67
−0.5
3
vsILL
ILLL 65-73
+6.5
6
vsMICH
MICHL 72-74
+22.5
10
@PUR
PURL 85-93
+14.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAL 60-71
−6.5
18
@MD
MDL 73-96
−21.5
22
vsWIS
WISL 71-98
−21.5
26
@OSU
OSUL 78-84
+5.5
29
@NU
NUL 73-94
−13.5
1
vsMINN
MINNW 77-75
+4.5
5
@MICH
MICHL 69-110
−14.5
covered 9didn’t cover 14avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
−13.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−4.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+6.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
+21.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−23.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
+40.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
−11.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
+8.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
+32.5
13
vsMSU
MSUL 72-76
+2.5
21
vsPITT
PITTL 46-80
−20.5
29
vsNCCU
NCCUW 90-67
+6.5
3
vsILL
ILLL 65-73
−18.5
6
vsMICH
MICHL 72-74
−23.5
10
@PUR
PURL 85-93
+25.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAL 60-71
−17.5
18
@MD
MDL 73-96
+20.5
22
vsWIS
WISL 71-98
+11.5
26
@OSU
OSUL 78-84
+8.5
29
@NU
NUL 73-94
+18.5
1
vsMINN
MINNW 77-75
+9.5
5
@MICH
MICHL 69-110
+17.5
over 14under 9avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
USC
16-6 overall · 6-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Indiana81–75
- Wvs Rutgers78–75
- L@ Iowa72–73
- W@ Wisconsin73–71
- Lvs Northwestern68–74
5 days since their last game.
Penn State
10-13 overall · 1-11 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Michigan69–110
- Wvs Minnesota77–75
- L@ Northwestern73–94
- L@ Ohio State78–84
- Lvs Wisconsin71–98
3 days since their last game.