Gersten Pavilion · at LMU
Closing line
LMU -4.5✓ LMU covered by 6.5
LMU -4.5✓ LMU covered by 6.5Closing total140.5Under by 3.5
 TROY | This season | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Record | 3-0 |
| 2-0 | ATS | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | O/U | 1-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TROY 71–73 LMU · ✓ LMU (57%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 25 | 38 | 63 |
| LMU | 27 | 47 | 74 |
1st half: TROY 25, LMU 27 (LMU by 2). The model had LMU by 1.1 and a total of 67.1 (actual 52).
Team stats
| TROY | LMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-49 41% | Field goals | 31-59 53% |
| 7-23 30% | 3-pointers | 7-20 35% |
| 16-20 80% | Free throws | 5-11 45% |
| 35 9 off | Rebounds | 27 6 off |
| 12 | Assists | 14 |
| 7 | Steals | 10 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 20 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| TROY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Dowd F | 35 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 3-9 | 1-4 |
| Theo Seng F | 34 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Victor Valdes F | 32 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 5-12 | 1-4 |
| Cooper Campbell G | 31 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Cobi Campbell G | 28 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 6-9 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Austin Cross G | 14 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Kerrington Kiel F | 12 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Jerrell Bellamy C | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Javen Colbert G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Hikaru Awata, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Emmanuel Clarton, Evan Griffin, Kameryn Mitchell, Corbin Green
| LMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron McBride F | 32 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jan Vide G | 32 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 10-18 | 1-4 |
| Rodney Brown Jr. G | 31 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 7-13 | 3-7 |
| Jalen Shelley F | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3-9 | 2-3 |
| Rick Issanza C | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Myron Amey Jr. G | 25 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 5-11 | 1-5 |
| Rokas Jocius F | 16 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Josh Dalton F | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| AJ Thomas G | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Nakyel Shelton G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cooper Smith, Jael Martin, Marley Zeller, George Tupy, Kevin Carney, Tanner Thomas
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLMU -4.5
ModelLMU -2.0
Model edgeTROY +2.5
L LMU covered
Total
Market140.5
Model143.1
Model edgeOver 2.6
L Under
Projected score
TROY 70.5 · LMU 72.6
TROY 63 · LMU 74
Win probability
LMU 57%
1st half
Spread
LMU -1.1
LMU -2.0
Total
67.1
52 points
Projected score
TROY 33 · LMU 34.1
TROY 25 · LMU 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLMU -3.5
1 → LMU
CloseLMU -4.5
1 pt toward LMU
Total
Open141.5
▼ 1
Close140.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
TROY +175 · LMU -210
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LMU -3.5 · closed LMU -4.5 · moved 1 toward LMUmodel LMU -2
model LMU -2
Opened 141.5 · closed 140.5 · moved 1 downmodel 143
model 143
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROYlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% |
| LMUlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 2-1 67% | 1-2 33% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Troy
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-0
100% covers · avg +7.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg +15 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
KENT
KENTW 103-97
+9.5
7
@
FUR
FURW 64-61
+5.5
covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+57.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
−27.5
over 1under 1avg +15 ptslonger = bigger margin
LMU
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg +5.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vs
EWU
EWUW 70-62
−1.5
8
vs
UAPB
UAPBW 94-72
+2.5
11
@
UTEP
UTEPW 71-58
+14.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsEWU
EWUW 70-62
−21.5
8
vsUAPB
UAPBW 94-72
+8.5
11
@UTEP
UTEPW 71-58
−15.5
over 1under 2avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Troy
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Furman64–61
- W@ Kent State103–97
A week or more of rest.
LMU
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UTEP71–58
- Wvs AR-Pine Bluff94–72
- Wvs E Washington70–62
3 days since their last game.