When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
29 games · 2023–2026 · Totals 52.5–58.5 · pick one to list those games
62% went over. Of the 18 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 11% of games.
All 29 games
2023–2026 · Totals 52.5–58.5 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 6 |
DAL -1.5 | 54.5 | 7172736 | U | GB Q1 | 13–23 |
2026 · Week 6 |
BUF -5.5 | 54.5 | 10263663 | Q4 | LV Q4 Late over |
33–30 |
2026 · Week 5 |
LAR -3.5 | 55.5 | 620336871 | Q4 | BUF Q1 Late over |
37–34 |
2026 · Week 5 |
DET -4.5 | 55.5 | 7315266 | Q4 | DET Q2 | 45–21 |
2026 · Week 4 |
DET -3.5 | 52.5 | 10324858 | Q4 | CAR Q1 Late over |
26–32 |
2026 · Week 3 |
BAL -3 | 54.5 | 17304565 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
34–31 |
2026 · Week 2 |
BUF -5.5 | 54.5 | 14375172 | Q4 | BUF Q1 | 31–41 |
2025 · Week 17 |
CIN -7 | 53.5 | 7304451 | U | CIN Q2 | 14–37 |
2025 · Week 16 |
DET -7.5 | 52.5 | 3202253 | Q4 | PIT Q1 Late over |
29–24 |
2025 · Week 15 |
LAR -5.5 | 54.5 | 14415875 | Q3 | LAR Q3 | 34–41 |
2025 · Week 14 |
BUF -6 | 54.5 | 10323973 | Q4 | CIN Q1 | 34–39 |
2025 · Week 14 |
DET -3.5 | 55.5 | 13294674 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 30–44 |
2025 · Week 13 |
BAL -7 | 52.5 | 10194046 | U | CIN Q1 | 32–14 |
2025 · Week 9 |
DAL -3.5 | 53.5 | 3243744 | U | ARI Q1 | 27–17 |
2025 · Week 9 |
KC -2.5 | 53.5 | 7344149 | U | BUF Q1 | 21–28 |
2025 · Week 7 |
DET -6.5 | 54.5 | 7173033 | U | DET Q1 | 9–24 |
2025 · Week 7 |
DAL -2.5 | 54.5 | 25426366 | Q3 | DAL Q1 | 22–44 |
2025 · Week 3 |
BAL -4.5 | 53.5 | 14284268 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 38–30 |
2024 · Postseason |
DET -8.5 | 55.5 | 10525976 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 45–31 |
2024 · Week 18 |
DET -2.5 | 56.5 | 7162640 | U | DET Q1 | 9–31 |
2024 · Week 15 |
DET -2.5 | 55.5 | 14355690 | Q3 | BUF Q1 | 48–42 |
2024 · Week 14 |
DET -3.5 | 53.5 | 7244565 | Q4 | GB Q3 | 31–34 |
2024 · Week 10 |
BAL -5.5 | 52.5 | 7213569 | Q4 | CIN Q1 | 34–35 |
2024 · Week 6 |
DET -3.5 | 52.5 | 10334656 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 47–9 |
2024 · Week 1 |
DET -5.5 | 53.5 | 313274046 | U | DET OT Late cover flip |
20–26 |
2023 · Postseason |
SF -7.5 | 53.5 | 14314865 | Q4 | DET Q1 Late over |
31–34 |
2023 · Postseason |
DET -3 | 53 | 17384447 | U | LAR Q4 | 23–24 |
2023 · Week 17 |
DAL -4.5 | 53 | 10102039 | U | DET Q1 | 19–20 |
2023 · Week 14 |
DAL -3.5 | 52.5 | 10304046 | U | DAL Q1 | 13–33 |
DAL
GB
BUF
LV
LAR
DET
ARI
CAR
BAL
CIN
PIT
KC
TB
WSH
MIN
SF
PHIWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 72% 21
Q2 7% 2
Q3 7% 2
Q4 7% 2
OT 3% 1
Push 3% 1
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 80% of 25 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 85% of 26 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 4–7 | 5 | 100% 5 |
| 8–10 | 5 | 60% 3 |
| 11–14 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 22+ | 7 | 29% 2 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.