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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Ohio State @ Nebraska

Pinnacle Bank Arena · at Nebraska · Conference game
#33OSUOhio State
@
#27NEBNebraska
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OSUThis seasonNEB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEB 78–72 · win probability NEB 68%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

OSU 0, NEB 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NEBBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OSU 15.3%, NEB 14.5%. Forced: OSU 15.6%, NEB 18.9%
NEBSmall
Home court
NEB at home. This season: NEB 0-0 at home, OSU 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: OSU 37.2, NEB 26.2. Allowed: OSU 34.7, NEB 25.1
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: OSU 56.2 and allows 50.2; NEB 55.5 and allows 48.1
Context
Schedule so far
OSU has played the 34th-hardest schedule, NEB the 59th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OSU 37%, NEB 48%. Transfers in: OSU 4, NEB 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
OSU offense vs NEB defense
Offense 36th of 366 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
OSU hits 35.7% and allows 31.9%; NEB hits 35.5% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 40.1% and 51.1% of their shots
Even
NEB offense vs OSU defense
Offense 43rd of 366 against a defense 35th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OSU 30.4%, NEB 26.7%. Defensive: OSU 70.0%, NEB 72.6%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: OSU plays 67.2 a game (275th fastest), NEB 67.3 (267th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelNEB -5.4
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model150.1
Model edge—
Projected score
OSU 72.4 · NEB 77.7
Win probability
NEB 68%
1st half
Spread
NEB -3.1
Total
70.2
Projected score
OSU 33.6 · NEB 36.6
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Nebraska has the better starters

Position by position: Ohio State 1, Nebraska 2, even 2
Ohio StateBetterNebraska
G J. Mobley15.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93
Even
G T. Leonhardt TR12 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83
G J. Pippen TR13.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.6 ast Score 90
Even
F P. Sandfort18.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 97
G J. Williams TR14.9 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
OSUSmall
F B. Kapke TR10.6 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77
G C. Givens TR9.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 65
NEBSmall
F S. Orme TR12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 86
F A. Bynum9.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73
NEBSmall
F D. Wilkinson TR14.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 93
Ohio StateBetterNebraska
OSU offense36th of 366 · +5.2
Even
NEB defense23rd of 366 · +5.1
OSU defense35th of 366 · +3.3
Even
NEB offense43rd of 366 · +4.6
Backcourt+9.1 · 4 players
OSUBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 1 player
Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player
NEBBig
Frontcourt+13.0 · 4 players
Bench+1.0 · 3 players
Even
Bench+1.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestOSU betterNEB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Ohio State
Guards
J. Mobley32 minJ. Pippen31 min · TRJ. Williams30 min · TRC. Givens26 min · TRB. Nash2 minM. HerroNew
Forwards
A. Bynum29 minA. Jelavic16 min · TRJ. OjianwunaNewA. ThompsonNewA. SmithNewV. LazarevicNew
Centers
I. Njegovan11 min
Nebraska
Guards
T. Leonhardt35 min · TRC. Jacobsen20 minT. DeGourville19 min · TRC. Essegian14 minJ. LanierNewC. RiceNew
Forwards
P. Sandfort34 minB. Kapke27 min · TRS. Orme26 min · TRD. Wilkinson25 min · TRB. Frager24 minK. Betts6 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OSUNEB
Scoring
79.3 #76Points per game77.0 #116
1.18 #31Points per possession1.15 #61
67.2 #275Pace (possessions)67.3 #267
Shooting
56.2 #19Effective FG%55.5 #28
35.7 #723-point %35.5 #91
40.1 #1703-point attempt rate51.1 #9
37.2 #122Free throw rate26.2 #356
Possessions
15.3 #91Turnover rate14.5 #44
30.4 #185Offensive rebound rate26.7 #306
14.5 #117Assists per game18.0 #10
Defense
72.6 #120Points allowed66.1 #14
1.08 #164Points allowed per possession0.98 #13
50.2 #114Opponent effective FG%48.1 #40
31.9 #57Opponent 3-point %30.5 #19
15.6 #243Turnovers forced18.9 #54
70.0 #160Defensive rebound rate72.6 #47
4.8 #340Steals per game7.1 #112
2.4 #311Blocks per game2.5 #303
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Ohio State

21-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs TCU64–66
  • Lvs Michigan67–71
  • Wvs Iowa72–69
  • Wvs Indiana91–78
  • W@ Penn State94–62

A week or more of rest.

Nebraska

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa71–77
  • Wvs Vanderbilt74–72
  • Wvs Troy76–47
  • Lvs Purdue58–74
  • Wvs Iowa84–75

A week or more of rest.