1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. PAC @ BRAD
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Pacific Tigers at Bradley Braves

Carver Arena · at Bradley
#163PACPacific
@
#167BRADBradley
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PACThis seasonBRAD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BRAD 74–72 · win probability BRAD 57%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

PAC 3, BRAD 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BRADBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PAC 20.1%, BRAD 13.9%. Forced: PAC 15.1%, BRAD 18.9%
PACBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PAC 35.3%, BRAD 27.4%. Defensive: PAC 75.0%, BRAD 72.2%
PACSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: PAC 52.2 and allows 50.0; BRAD 51.1 and allows 52.8
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: PAC plays 66.1 a game (312th fastest), BRAD 69.9 (125th). Faster games mean more points
BRADSmall
Home court
BRAD at home. This season: BRAD 0-0 at home, PAC 0-0 away
BRADSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: PAC 30.5, BRAD 35.9. Allowed: PAC 36.3, BRAD 38.2
PACSmall
Three-pointers
PAC hits 35.8% and allows 34.7%; BRAD hits 36.1% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 35.4% and 40.5% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
PAC has played the 122nd-hardest schedule, BRAD the 155th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
BRAD offense vs PAC defense
Offense 175th of 366 against a defense 147th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PAC 8%, BRAD 16%. Transfers in: PAC 9, BRAD 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
PAC offense vs BRAD defense
Offense 195th of 366 against a defense 185th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BRAD -2.1—
Total—145.9—
Projected score—PAC 71.9 · BRAD 74

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBRAD -1.1—
1H total68.3—
1H projected scorePAC 33.6 · BRAD 34.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Pacific 1, Bradley 1, even 3
PacificBetterBradley
G J. Winston TR15.5 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 74
PACBig
G T. Payton TR9.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 15
G C. Amundsen TR9.4 pts · 2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 34
Even
G T. van der Knaap6.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 30
G C. Jones TR3.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 17
No call
G D. Richardson2.2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
F G. Ripp TR3.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 10
BRADBig
F X. Alarie TR10.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 50
F J. Pitt4.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 57
No call
F J. Ibukunoluwa TR2.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
PacificBetterBradley
PAC offense195th of 366 · -6.1
Even
BRAD defense185th of 366 · -4.3
PAC defense147th of 366 · -3.2
Even
BRAD offense175th of 366 · -5.4
Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players
PACBig
Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players
BRADSmall
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
Bench-1.2 · 5 players
BRADSmall
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestPAC betterBRAD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pacific
Guards
J. Winston36 min · TRC. Amundsen30 min · TRC. Jones17 min · TRA. Nyorha10 min · TRD. Harris6 min · TRN. BuduNew
Forwards
G. Ripp17 min · TRJ. Pitt17 minJ. Thompson11 min · TRV. OsazeeNewJ. CarotNew
Centers
J. McFarland3 min · TRI. Matlekovic2 min · TR
Bradley
Guards
T. Payton34 min · TRT. van der Knaap23 minD. Richardson7 minG. Rugaard1 minK. GrillNewG. GerganovNew
Forwards
X. Alarie28 min · TRJ. Ibukunoluwa6 min · TRB. ThornbrueNew
Centers
G. GuimaresNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PACBRAD
Scoring
71.3 #262Points per game77.0 #117
1.08 #176Points per possession1.10 #129
66.1 #312Pace (possessions)69.9 #125
Shooting
52.2 #140Effective FG%51.1 #189
35.8 #653-point %36.1 #53
35.4 #2663-point attempt rate40.5 #161
30.5 #297Free throw rate35.9 #156
Possessions
20.1 #350Turnover rate13.9 #19
35.3 #42Offensive rebound rate27.4 #285
14.9 #93Assists per game13.3 #191
Defense
69.8 #60Points allowed74.2 #162
1.05 #93Points allowed per possession1.06 #109
50.0 #101Opponent effective FG%52.8 #259
34.7 #233Opponent 3-point %36.6 #334
15.1 #281Turnovers forced18.9 #53
75.0 #8Defensive rebound rate72.2 #62
5.4 #309Steals per game7.5 #86
2.2 #332Blocks per game3.2 #192
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacific

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Santa Clara68–76
  • Wvs Seattle U61–58
  • Lvs San Francisco61–72
  • L@ Gonzaga62–71
  • L@ Washington St70–87

A week or more of rest.

Bradley

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Dayton66–80
  • Lvs Northern Iowa69–73
  • Wvs Valparaiso90–84
  • Wvs Murray St87–78
  • L@ UIC86–93

A week or more of rest.