1. Home
  2. NCAAB
  3. Wed, Dec 2
  4. BALL @ AKR
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Ball State @ Akron

James A. Rhodes Arena · at Akron · Conference game
#181BALLBall State
@
#118AKRAkron
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BALLThis seasonAKR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AKR 79–69 · win probability AKR 81%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AKR has more of the edges

BALL 0, AKR 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
AKRBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BALL 47.0 and allows 52.7; AKR 58.1 and allows 51.2
AKRBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BALL 27.1%, AKR 33.4%. Defensive: BALL 69.0%, AKR 70.1%
AKRBig
Three-pointers
BALL hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; AKR hits 38.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 39.4% and 44.8% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: BALL plays 65.9 a game (317th fastest), AKR 71.1 (70th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
BALL has played the 235th-hardest schedule, AKR the 159th. A record against a soft schedule means less
AKRSmall
AKR offense vs BALL defense
Offense 101st of 366 against a defense 159th, on the model’s ratings
AKRSmall
BALL offense vs AKR defense
Offense 221st of 366 against a defense 168th, on the model’s ratings
AKRSmall
Home court
AKR at home. This season: AKR 0-0 at home, BALL 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BALL 31.6, AKR 29.2. Allowed: BALL 32.1, AKR 30.4
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BALL 16.2%, AKR 15.5%. Forced: BALL 18.7%, AKR 18.3%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BALL 25%, AKR 28%. Transfers in: BALL 9, AKR 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—AKR -9.9—
Total—148.4—
Projected score—BALL 69.3 · AKR 79.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadAKR -5.8—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreBALL 31.8 · AKR 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Akron has the better starters

Position by position: Ball State 1, Akron 3, even 1
Ball StateBetterAkron
G Z. Collins TR11.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 73
Even
G T. Staveskie TR17.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 74
G S. Blake TR10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 53
AKRSmall
G T. Pence TR9.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 86
G J. Guy-King TR10 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.7 ast Score 50
AKRSmall
F E. Mahaffey9.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.4 ast Score 69
G K. Parker TR10.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
BALLBig
F M. Burton TR5.5 pts · 5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14
F M. Jones4.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 9
AKRBig
F B. Hammer TR4.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 55
Ball StateBetterAkron
BALL offense221st of 366 · -6.7
Even
AKR defense168th of 366 · -3.7
BALL defense159th of 366 · -3.5
AKRSmall
AKR offense101st of 366 · -1.1
Backcourt+0.6 · 4 players
AKRSmall
Backcourt+2.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt-3.5 · 1 player
AKRSmall
Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
BALLSmall
Bench-2.6 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestBALL betterAKR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Ball State
Guards
Z. Collins31 min · TRS. Blake29 min · TRJ. Guy-King23 min · TRK. Parker21 min · TRJ. Hart19 minT. Lewis18 min · TR
Forwards
M. Jones31 minB. Durodola19 min · TRK. WrightNewK. McGrewNew
Centers
J. Smith9 min · TR
Akron
Guards
T. Staveskie36 min · TRT. Pence24 min · TRC. HeadNewT. PerkinsNewJ. HendersonNewE. WilsonNew
Forwards
E. Mahaffey29 minM. Burton25 min · TRB. Hammer14 min · TRZ. Halligan12 minC. White9 min · TRM. Musiime-Kamali9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BALLAKR
Scoring
66.1 #345Points per game86.4 #8
1.00 #325Points per possession1.22 #6
65.9 #317Pace (possessions)71.1 #70
Shooting
47.0 #336Effective FG%58.1 #9
31.4 #3123-point %38.2 #15
39.4 #1863-point attempt rate44.8 #74
31.6 #263Free throw rate29.2 #327
Possessions
16.2 #151Turnover rate15.5 #104
27.1 #290Offensive rebound rate33.4 #78
12.4 #259Assists per game17.7 #12
Defense
71.4 #88Points allowed75.0 #188
1.09 #184Points allowed per possession1.06 #98
52.7 #253Opponent effective FG%51.2 #173
34.8 #239Opponent 3-point %35.5 #284
18.7 #60Turnovers forced18.3 #86
69.0 #204Defensive rebound rate70.1 #156
7.5 #88Steals per game7.2 #108
2.7 #286Blocks per game2.9 #240
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Ball State

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-11 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs C Michigan85–69
  • W@ W Michigan74–71
  • W@ N Illinois79–43
  • Wvs UMass74–73
  • Lvs Akron65–78

A week or more of rest.

Akron

27-6 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas Tech71–91
  • Wvs Toledo79–76
  • Wvs Kent State75–68
  • Wvs Buffalo73–70
  • Wvs N Illinois94–55

A week or more of rest.