1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. ARIZ vs UCLA
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Arizona Wildcats vs UCLA Bruins

T-Mobile Arena · Neutral site
#5ARIZArizona AP #5
vs
#26UCLAUCLA AP #22
LineARIZ -4.5no move
Total149.5down 1 from 150.5
ARIZThis seasonUCLA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARIZ 80–69 · win probability ARIZ 84%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
ARIZ -4.5
no move since the open
Total
149.5
model 148.7 · Under by 1
Model edge
ARIZ by 7
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARIZ has more of the edges

ARIZ 3, UCLA 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARIZBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ARIZ 38.4%, UCLA 31.1%. Defensive: ARIZ 73.1%, UCLA 66.7%
ARIZBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ARIZ 43.9, UCLA 33.1. Allowed: ARIZ 27.1, UCLA 34.4
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ARIZ plays 71.6 a game (49th fastest), UCLA 66.5 (297th). Faster games mean more points
UCLASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ARIZ 15.1%, UCLA 13.4%. Forced: ARIZ 16.2%, UCLA 18.5%
ARIZSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ARIZ 54.7 and allows 45.3; UCLA 53.4 and allows 50.4
Even
UCLA offense vs ARIZ defense
Offense 47th of 366 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ARIZ 29%, UCLA 50%. Transfers in: ARIZ 5, UCLA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
ARIZ has played the 11th-hardest schedule, UCLA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
ARIZ offense vs UCLA defense
Offense 4th of 366 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Three-pointers
ARIZ hits 36.6% and allows 31.4%; UCLA hits 37.9% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 26.4% and 35.5% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Neutral-site favorites of 3 to 6.592866%50%47%
Non-conference games at this spread173667%50%49%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
ARIZ -195 · UCLA +160
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened ARIZ -4.5 · unchangedmodel ARIZ -11.5
Opened 150.5 · now 149.5 · moved 1 downmodel 148.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
ARIZWinnerUCLA
Bets
Money
Money is 18 pts ahead of bets on UCLA
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
ARIZUCLAOverUnderARIZUCLA
BetMGMMGM+4.5-115-4.5-105150.5-105150.5-115-200+165
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag+5-110-5-110149.5-115149.5-105——
BetRiversBetRivers+4.5-115-4.5-108150.5-109150.5-114-195+155
BetUSBetUS+5-110-5-110149.5-115149.5-105——
BovadaBovada+4.5-110-4.5-110149.5-105149.5-115——
FanDuelFD+4.5-110-4.5-110150.5-110150.5-110-194+160
LowVig.agLowVig.ag+5-106-5-106149.5-113149.5-103——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadARIZ -4.5ARIZ -11.3ARIZ +6.8
Total149.5148.7Under 0.8
Projected score—ARIZ 80 · UCLA 68.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARIZ -6.9—
1H total69.5—
1H projected scoreARIZ 38.2 · UCLA 31.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Arizona 2, UCLA 2, even 1
ArizonaBetterUCLA
G D. Dixon TR6.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 55
UCLASmall
G J. Petty TR9.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 70
G J. Mandaquit TR5.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 62
UCLASmall
G T. Perry12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93
F I. Kharchenkov10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83
Even
F E. Dailey11.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 88
F R. Godfrey TR12 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 96
ARIZSmall
F S. Macura TR5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71
C M. Krivas10.4 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 95
ARIZSmall
C X. Booker7.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
ArizonaBetterUCLA
ARIZ offense4th of 366 · +11.0
Even
UCLA defense14th of 366 · +6.4
ARIZ defense7th of 366 · +8.8
Even
UCLA offense47th of 366 · +3.8
Backcourt-0.3 · 2 players
UCLABig
Backcourt+3.8 · 2 players
Frontcourt+10.8 · 3 players
ARIZBig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
Bench-0.1 · 4 players
Even
Bench+0.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestARIZ betterUCLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Arizona
Guards
D. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Mandaquit20 min · TRA. Arnold2 minJ. Cook1 minB. JamesNewC. HolmesNew
Forwards
I. Kharchenkov28 minR. Godfrey25 min · TRE. Otten15 min · TRU. Jarusevicius11 min · TRM. MawutNewE. AiyamenkhueNew
Centers
M. Krivas25 min
UCLA
Guards
J. Petty30 min · TRT. Perry30 minA. Robinson18 min · TRE. Freeny11 minM. AlstonNewJ. HouegbanNew
Forwards
E. Dailey28 minS. Macura19 min · TRB. Williams12 minJ. PhilonNewN. KusturicaNewG. GrinvaldsNew
Centers
X. Booker20 minF. Jovic18 min · TRJ. FloydNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ARIZUCLA
Scoring
86.2 #11Points per game77.0 #115
1.21 #11Points per possession1.16 #48
71.6 #49Pace (possessions)66.5 #297
Shooting
54.7 #45Effective FG%53.4 #85
36.6 #373-point %37.9 #19
26.4 #3633-point attempt rate35.5 #259
43.9 #11Free throw rate33.1 #237
Possessions
15.1 #76Turnover rate13.4 #14
38.4 #5Offensive rebound rate31.1 #162
16.4 #38Assists per game16.1 #45
Defense
69.4 #53Points allowed71.1 #75
0.97 #6Points allowed per possession1.07 #129
45.3 #4Opponent effective FG%50.4 #120
31.4 #42Opponent 3-point %32.0 #64
16.2 #209Turnovers forced18.5 #76
73.1 #34Defensive rebound rate66.7 #304
7.4 #95Steals per game6.7 #156
4.2 #55Blocks per game3.0 #218
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Arizona

36-3 in 2025-26 overall · 19-2 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan73–91
  • Wvs Purdue79–64
  • Wvs Arkansas109–88
  • Wvs Utah State78–66
  • Wvs Long Island92–58

A week or more of rest.

UCLA

24-12 in 2025-26 overall · 15-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn57–73
  • Wvs UCF75–71
  • Lvs Purdue66–73
  • Wvs Michigan St88–84
  • Wvs Rutgers72–59

A week or more of rest.