Foster Pavilion · at Baylor
#318NWSTN'Western St
@
#29BAYBaylor
LineBAY -29.5moved 1 toward NWST
Total148.5no move
Season records: N'Western St and Baylor
NWSTThis seasonBAY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BAY 88–60 · win probability BAY 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
BAY -29.5
moved 1 toward NWST
Total
148.5
model 148.1
Model edge
NWST by 1
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BAY has more of the edges

NWST 0, BAY 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BAYBig
NWST offense vs BAY defense
Offense 340th of 366 against a defense 45th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NWST has played the 292nd-hardest schedule, BAY the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BAYBig
BAY offense vs NWST defense
Offense 29th of 366 against a defense 236th, on the model’s ratings
BAYBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NWST 26.1%, BAY 36.9%. Defensive: NWST 67.4%, BAY 68.7%
BAYBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NWST 48.6 and allows 53.0; BAY 53.4 and allows 52.4
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: NWST plays 65.4 a game (334th fastest), BAY 69.3 (161st). Faster games mean more points
BAYSmall
Home court
BAY at home. This season: BAY 0-0 at home, NWST 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
NWST hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%; BAY hits 33.9% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 33.9% and 39.6% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NWST 18.3%, BAY 16.2%. Forced: NWST 16.9%, BAY 15.9%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NWST 40.1, BAY 34.1. Allowed: NWST 36.3, BAY 30.1
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NWST 28%, BAY 26%. Transfers in: NWST 2, BAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward NWST
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
NWST +6500 · BAY -100000
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened BAY -30.5 · now BAY -31 · moved 0.5 toward BAYmodel BAY -28.5
Opened 148.5 · now 148 · moved 0.5 downmodel 148 matches the line
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 148.5TotalUnder 148.5
Bets
Money

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
NWSTBAYOverUnderNWSTBAY
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-31-115+31-105148-110148-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-28.5-113+28.5-113149.5-114149.5-110——
BovadaBovada-31-115+31-105148-110148-110——
FanDuelFD-28.5-110+28.5-110149.5-110149.5-110+6500-100000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-31-111+31-101148-108148-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadBAY -29.5BAY -28.3NWST +1.2
Total148.5148.1Under 0.4
Projected score—NWST 59.9 · BAY 88.2

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadBAY -16.7—
1H total69.3—
1H projected scoreNWST 26.3 · BAY 43—

Baylor has the better starters

Position by position: N'Western St 0, Baylor 5, even 0
N'Western StBetterBaylor
G I. Miles10.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 57
BAYSmall
G B. Decker TR16.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1 ast Score 76
G C. Larry2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 1
BAYBig
G K. Mingo TR13.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.3 ast Score 92
F D. Thomas TR5.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20
BAYBig
G I. Williams10.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 89
F A. Osojnik TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
BAYBig
F I. Celiscar TR13.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 88
F K. Turner3.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 34
BAYBig
F E. Chatman TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 71
N'Western StBetterBaylor
NWST offense340th of 366 · -11.5
BAYBig
BAY defense45th of 366 · +2.4
NWST defense236th of 366 · -6.2
BAYBig
BAY offense29th of 366 · +6.5
Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players
BAYBig
Backcourt+6.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.2 · 3 players
BAYBig
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+1.5 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestNWST betterBAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N'Western St
Guards
I. Miles25 minC. Larry18 minK. SimpsonNewD. BrownNewA. AlmuttarNewB. RemoNew
Forwards
D. Thomas18 min · TRA. Osojnik16 min · TRK. Turner13 minN. OjukwuNewC. KellyNewJ. NesbittNew
Baylor
Guards
B. Decker34 min · TRK. Mingo32 min · TRI. Williams25 minD. Perry2 minJ. Goodis1 minA. IguodalaNew
Forwards
I. Celiscar32 min · TRE. Chatman29 min · TRM. PerezNewE. WilliamsNew
Centers
C. Powell24 minJ. Bodo BodoNewM. SoyoyeNewT. MakabuNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NWSTBAY
Scoring
66.1 #346Points per game80.4 #59
1.01 #315Points per possession1.16 #51
65.4 #334Pace (possessions)69.3 #161
Shooting
48.6 #301Effective FG%53.4 #84
33.2 #2183-point %33.9 #179
33.9 #2983-point attempt rate39.6 #181
40.1 #58Free throw rate34.1 #202
Possessions
18.3 #286Turnover rate16.2 #153
26.1 #321Offensive rebound rate36.9 #18
11.3 #322Assists per game14.8 #96
Defense
72.9 #129Points allowed76.9 #238
1.12 #262Points allowed per possession1.11 #248
53.0 #270Opponent effective FG%52.4 #237
35.5 #278Opponent 3-point %34.8 #240
16.9 #160Turnovers forced15.9 #226
67.4 #286Defensive rebound rate68.7 #219
6.2 #215Steals per game6.3 #198
2.3 #321Blocks per game3.9 #85

N'Western St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nicholls47–61
  • L@ UT Rio Grande62–74
  • L@ Texas A&M-CC59–71
  • Wvs Incarnate Word54–49
  • Wvs Hou Christian71–53

A week or more of rest.

Baylor

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma69–82
  • Wvs Minnesota67–48
  • Lvs Arizona St79–83
  • Wvs Utah101–75
  • L@ Houston64–77

A week or more of rest.