Foster Pavilion · at Baylor
Line
BAY -29.5moved 1 toward NWST
Total148.5no move
| This season | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects BAY 88–60 · win probability BAY 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
BAY -29.5
moved 1 toward NWST
Total
148.5
model 148.1
Model edge
NWST by 1
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: BAY has more of the edges
NWST 0, BAY 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NWST offense vs BAY defense
Offense 340th of 366 against a defense 45th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NWST has played the 292nd-hardest schedule, BAY the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BAY offense vs NWST defense
Offense 29th of 366 against a defense 236th, on the model’s ratings
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NWST 26.1%, BAY 36.9%. Defensive: NWST 67.4%, BAY 68.7%
Shooting
Effective FG%: NWST 48.6 and allows 53.0; BAY 53.4 and allows 52.4
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: NWST plays 65.4 a game (334th fastest), BAY 69.3 (161st). Faster games mean more points
Home court
BAY at home. This season: BAY 0-0 at home, NWST 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
NWST hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%; BAY hits 33.9% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 33.9% and 39.6% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NWST 18.3%, BAY 16.2%. Forced: NWST 16.9%, BAY 15.9%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NWST 40.1, BAY 34.1. Allowed: NWST 36.3, BAY 30.1
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NWST 28%, BAY 26%. Transfers in: NWST 2, BAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 20 or more | 1165 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 1090 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog | 4513 | 74% | 51% | 50% |
| Games with a total of 145 to 149.5 | 3547 | 74% | 49% | 50% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenBAY -30.5
1 → NWST
NowBAY -29.5
1 pt toward NWST
Total
Open148.5
no move
Now148.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
NWST +6500 · BAY -100000
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened BAY -30.5 · now BAY -31 · moved 0.5 toward BAYmodel BAY -28.5
model BAY -28.5
Opened 148.5 · now 148 · moved 0.5 downmodel 148 matches the line
model 148 = line ✓
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Over 148.5TotalUnder 148.5
Bets
Money
Books
5 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWST | BAY | Over | Under | NWST | BAY | |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -31-115 | +31-105 | 148-110 | 148-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -28.5-113 | +28.5-113 | 149.5-114 | 149.5-110 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -31-115 | +31-105 | 148-110 | 148-110 | — | — |
| FanDuelFD | -28.5-110 | +28.5-110 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | +6500 | -100000 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -31-111 | +31-101 | 148-108 | 148-108 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BAY -29.5 | BAY -28.3 | NWST +1.2 |
| Total | 148.5 | 148.1 | Under 0.4 |
| Projected score | — | NWST 59.9 · BAY 88.2 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | BAY -16.7 | — |
| 1H total | 69.3 | — |
| 1H projected score | NWST 26.3 · BAY 43 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | |
| 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
NWST 0–3 BAYBAY leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · BAY has won the last 3 meetings · NWST 2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023-24 | NWST 40 @ BAY 91 | BAY -34.5 | BAY W |
| Dec 20, 2022-23 | NWST 48 @ BAY 58 | BAY -26.5 | NWST W |
| Dec 28, 2021-22 | NWST 68 @ BAY 104 | BAY -39 | NWST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
N'Western St
30 games played
Straight up
8-22
27% wins
Against the spread
17-13
57% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-15
50% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ | L 68-98 | +21.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 6 | @ | L 53-80 | +11.5 | L −15.5 | 137.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 11 | @ | L 83-87 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 142.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 18 | @ | L 64-84 | +16.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 21 | @ | L 72-85 | +18.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 29 | vs | L 73-75 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 5 | @ | L 54-92 | +19.5 | L −18.5 | 139.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 7 | @ | W 76-68 | +7.5 | W +15.5 | 133.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 13 | @ | L 70-79 | +19.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs | L 61-76 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 138.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 31 | vs | L 64-74 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 3 | vs | W 74-68 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 5 | @ | L 72-74 | +8.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs | W 79-78 | +5.5 | W +6.5 | 138.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 12 | vs | W 64-63 | +2.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | @ | L 74-76 | +8.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 19 | @ | L 80-82 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 139.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 27 | @ | L 67-69 | +14.5 | W +12.5 | 141.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 31 | @ | L 64-75 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 2 | vs | L 58-61 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 4 | vs | L 68-74 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 7 | @ | L 48-52 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 140.5 | U 100 |
| Feb 9 | @ | W 70-68 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 135.5 | O 138 |
| Feb 14 | vs | W 69-66 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 131.5 | O 135 |
| Feb 16 | vs | L 64-75 | +14.5 | W +3.5 | 138.5 | O 139 |
| Feb 21 | vs | W 71-53 | -2.5 | W +15.5 | 134.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 23 | vs | W 54-49 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 138.5 | U 103 |
| Feb 28 | @ | L 59-71 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 134.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 2 | @ | L 62-74 | +9.5 | L −2.5 | 139.5 | U 136 |
| Mar 8 | vs | L 47-61 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 138.5 | U 108 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
TA&M
L 68-98
−8.5
6
@
UNT
L 53-80
−15.5
11
@
UNA
L 83-87
+2.5
18
@
SF
L 64-84
−3.5
21
@
GCU
L 72-85
+5.5
29
vs
SOU
L 73-75
+1.5
5
@
MCN
L 54-92
−18.5
7
@
SELA
W 76-68
+15.5
13
@
CAL
L 70-79
+10.5
29
vs
LAM
L 61-76
−11.5
31
vs
SFA
L 64-74
−1.5
3
vs
NOLA
W 74-68
+7.5
5
@
NICH
L 72-74
+6.5
10
vs
AMCC
W 79-78
+6.5
12
vs
RGV
W 64-63
+3.5
17
@
UIW
L 74-76
+6.5
19
@
HCU
L 80-82
+0.5
27
@
SFA
L 67-69
+12.5
31
@
NOLA
L 64-75
−6.5
2
vs
NICH
L 58-61
−1.5
4
vs
ETAM
L 68-74
−9.5
7
@
ETAM
L 48-52
−2.5
9
@
LAM
W 70-68
+8.5
14
vs
SELA
W 69-66
+1.5
16
vs
MCN
L 64-75
+3.5
21
vs
HCU
W 71-53
+15.5
23
vs
UIW
W 54-49
+3.5
28
@
AMCC
L 59-71
−6.5
2
@
RGV
L 62-74
−2.5
8
vs
NICH
L 47-61
−12.5
covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@
TA&M
L 68-98
+12.5
6
@
UNT
L 53-80
−4.5
11
@
UNA
L 83-87
+27.5
18
@
SF
L 64-84
+4.5
21
@
GCU
L 72-85
+9.5
29
vs
SOU
L 73-75
+3.5
5
@
MCN
L 54-92
+6.5
7
@
SELA
W 76-68
+10.5
13
@
CAL
L 70-79
+3.5
29
vs
LAM
L 61-76
−1.5
31
vs
SFA
L 64-74
−0.5
3
vs
NOLA
W 74-68
−7.5
5
@
NICH
L 72-74
+1.5
10
vs
AMCC
W 79-78
+18.5
12
vs
RGV
W 64-63
−16.5
17
@
UIW
L 74-76
+8.5
19
@
HCU
L 80-82
+22.5
27
@
SFA
L 67-69
−5.5
31
@
NOLA
L 64-75
−14.5
2
vs
NICH
L 58-61
−28.5
4
vs
ETAM
L 68-74
−1.5
7
@
ETAM
L 48-52
−40.5
9
@
LAM
W 70-68
+2.5
14
vs
SELA
W 69-66
+3.5
16
vs
MCN
L 64-75
+0.5
21
vs
HCU
W 71-53
−10.5
23
vs
UIW
W 54-49
−35.5
28
@
AMCC
L 59-71
−4.5
2
@
RGV
L 62-74
−3.5
8
vs
NICH
L 47-61
−30.5
over 15under 15avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Baylor
33 games played
Straight up
16-17
48% wins
Against the spread
14-19
42% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-15
55% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs | W 96-81 | -24.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 9 | vs | W 78-69 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | vs | W 94-81 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 24 | vs | W 81-74 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 25 | vs | L 81-96 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs | W 91-81 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 2 | vs | W 110-88 | -29.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 6 | @ | L 71-78 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs | W 97-67 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 19 | vs | W 113-56 | -35.5 | W +21.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 21 | vs | W 111-67 | -26.5 | W +17.5 | 169.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 3 | @ | L 63-69 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 7 | vs | L 60-70 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | vs | L 55-77 | +2.5 | L −19.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @ | W 94-79 | -1.5 | W +13.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 16 | @ | L 62-80 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 20 | vs | L 73-92 | +1.5 | L −17.5 | 154.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vs | L 90-97 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 28 | @ | L 57-67 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | @ | W 63-53 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 139.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 4 | vs | W 86-67 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 7 | @ | L 69-72 | +14.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 10 | vs | L 94-99 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 193 |
| Feb 14 | vs | L 71-82 | +7.5 | L −3.5 | 162.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | @ | L 74-90 | -3.5 | L −19.5 | 159.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 21 | vs | W 73-68 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 24 | vs | L 80-87 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 28 | @ | W 87-86 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Mar 4 | @ | L 64-77 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 7 | vs | W 101-75 | -13.5 | W +12.5 | 148.5 | O 176 |
| Mar 10 | vs | L 79-83 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | O 162 |
| Apr 1 | vs | W 67-48 | -3.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | U 115 |
| Apr 4 | vs | L 69-82 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
RGV
W 96-81
−9.5
9
vs
WASH
W 78-69
+2.5
14
vs
TAR
W 94-81
−10.5
24
vs
CREI
W 81-74
+3.5
25
vs
SJU
L 81-96
−9.5
26
vs
SDSU
W 91-81
+7.5
2
vs
SAC
W 110-88
−7.5
6
@
MEM
L 71-78
−10.5
10
vs
NORF
W 97-67
+3.5
19
vs
ALCN
W 113-56
+21.5
21
vs
SOU
W 111-67
+17.5
3
@
TCU
L 63-69
−3.5
7
vs
ISU
L 60-70
−6.5
10
vs
HOU
L 55-77
−19.5
13
@
OKST
W 94-79
+13.5
16
@
KU
L 62-80
−10.5
20
vs
TTU
L 73-92
−17.5
24
vs
TCU
L 90-97
−11.5
28
@
CIN
L 57-67
−6.5
31
@
WVU
W 63-53
+12.5
4
vs
COLO
W 86-67
+11.5
7
@
ISU
L 69-72
+11.5
10
vs
BYU
L 94-99
−1.5
14
vs
LOU
L 71-82
−3.5
17
@
KSU
L 74-90
−19.5
21
vs
ASU
W 73-68
−3.5
24
vs
ARIZ
L 80-87
+0.5
28
@
UCF
W 87-86
+2.5
4
@
HOU
L 64-77
−0.5
7
vs
UTAH
W 101-75
+12.5
10
vs
ASU
L 79-83
−9.5
1
vs
MINN
W 67-48
+15.5
4
vs
OU
L 69-82
−14.5
covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vs
RGV
W 96-81
+22.5
9
vs
WASH
W 78-69
−9.5
14
vs
TAR
W 94-81
+25.5
24
vs
CREI
W 81-74
+0.5
25
vs
SJU
L 81-96
+17.5
26
vs
SDSU
W 91-81
+23.5
2
vs
SAC
W 110-88
+39.5
6
@
MEM
L 71-78
−9.5
10
vs
NORF
W 97-67
+15.5
19
vs
ALCN
W 113-56
+8.5
21
vs
SOU
W 111-67
+8.5
3
@
TCU
L 63-69
−22.5
7
vs
ISU
L 60-70
−25.5
10
vs
HOU
L 55-77
−10.5
13
@
OKST
W 94-79
+7.5
16
@
KU
L 62-80
−14.5
20
vs
TTU
L 73-92
+10.5
24
vs
TCU
L 90-97
+39.5
28
@
CIN
L 57-67
−21.5
31
@
WVU
W 63-53
−23.5
4
vs
COLO
W 86-67
−2.5
7
@
ISU
L 69-72
−10.5
10
vs
BYU
L 94-99
+34.5
14
vs
LOU
L 71-82
−9.5
17
@
KSU
L 74-90
+4.5
21
vs
ASU
W 73-68
−16.5
24
vs
ARIZ
L 80-87
+11.5
28
@
UCF
W 87-86
+13.5
4
@
HOU
L 64-77
−2.5
7
vs
UTAH
W 101-75
+27.5
10
vs
ASU
L 79-83
+9.5
1
vs
MINN
W 67-48
−31.5
4
vs
OU
L 69-82
−8.5
over 18under 15avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Baylor has the better starters
Position by position: N'Western St 0, Baylor 5, even 0
N'Western StBetterBaylor
G I. Miles10.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 57
→BAYSmall
G B. Decker TR16.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 76
G C. Larry2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 1
→BAYBig
G K. Mingo TR13.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.3 ast
Score 92
F D. Thomas TR5.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast
Score 20
→BAYBig
G I. Williams10.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 89
F A. Osojnik TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 22
→BAYBig
F I. Celiscar TR13.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 3.2 ast
Score 88
F K. Turner3.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.3 ast
Score 34
→BAYBig
F E. Chatman TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 71
N'Western StBetterBaylor
NWST offense340th of 366 · -11.5
→BAYBig
BAY defense45th of 366 · +2.4
NWST defense236th of 366 · -6.2
→BAYBig
BAY offense29th of 366 · +6.5
Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players
→BAYBig
Backcourt+6.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.2 · 3 players
→BAYBig
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
=No call
Bench+1.5 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestNWST betterBAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
I. Miles25 minC. Larry18 minK. SimpsonNewD. BrownNewA. AlmuttarNewB. RemoNew
Forwards
D. Thomas18 min · TRA. Osojnik16 min · TRK. Turner13 minN. OjukwuNewC. KellyNewJ. NesbittNew
Guards
B. Decker34 min · TRK. Mingo32 min · TRI. Williams25 minD. Perry2 minJ. Goodis1 minA. IguodalaNew
Forwards
I. Celiscar32 min · TRE. Chatman29 min · TRM. PerezNewE. WilliamsNew
Centers
C. Powell24 minJ. Bodo BodoNewM. SoyoyeNewT. MakabuNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 66.1 #346 | Points per game | 80.4 #59 |
| 1.01 #315 | Points per possession | 1.16 #51 |
| 65.4 #334 | Pace (possessions) | 69.3 #161 |
| Shooting | ||
| 48.6 #301 | Effective FG% | 53.4 #84 |
| 33.2 #218 | 3-point % | 33.9 #179 |
| 33.9 #298 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.6 #181 |
| 40.1 #58 | Free throw rate | 34.1 #202 |
| Possessions | ||
| 18.3 #286 | Turnover rate | 16.2 #153 |
| 26.1 #321 | Offensive rebound rate | 36.9 #18 |
| 11.3 #322 | Assists per game | 14.8 #96 |
| Defense | ||
| 72.9 #129 | Points allowed | 76.9 #238 |
| 1.12 #262 | Points allowed per possession | 1.11 #248 |
| 53.0 #270 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.4 #237 |
| 35.5 #278 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.8 #240 |
| 16.9 #160 | Turnovers forced | 15.9 #226 |
| 67.4 #286 | Defensive rebound rate | 68.7 #219 |
| 6.2 #215 | Steals per game | 6.3 #198 |
| 2.3 #321 | Blocks per game | 3.9 #85 |
N'Western St
8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Nicholls47–61
- L@ UT Rio Grande62–74
- L@ Texas A&M-CC59–71
- Wvs Incarnate Word54–49
- Wvs Hou Christian71–53
A week or more of rest.
Baylor
16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Oklahoma69–82
- Wvs Minnesota67–48
- Lvs Arizona St79–83
- Wvs Utah101–75
- L@ Houston64–77
A week or more of rest.