1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. IDST @ USU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Idaho State Bengals at Utah State Aggies

Dee Glen Smith Spectrum · at Utah State
#344IDSTIdaho St
@
#58USUUtah State
LineUSU -25.5moved 2 toward IDST
Total148.5up 3 from 145.5
IDSTThis seasonUSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USU 90–62 · win probability USU 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
USU -25.5
moved 2 toward IDST
Total
148.5
model 151.1 · Over by 2.5
Model edge
USU by 2.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
94% IDST
87% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USU has more of the edges

IDST 1, USU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USUBig
USU offense vs IDST defense
Offense 53rd of 366 against a defense 349th, on the model’s ratings
USUBig
IDST offense vs USU defense
Offense 324th of 366 against a defense 56th, on the model’s ratings
USUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: IDST 17.1%, USU 15.1%. Forced: IDST 14.6%, USU 20.2%
Context
Schedule so far
IDST has played the 295th-hardest schedule, USU the 83rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
USUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: IDST 51.9 and allows 54.5; USU 56.3 and allows 49.7
IDSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: IDST 32.8%, USU 32.7%. Defensive: IDST 72.1%, USU 67.2%
USUSmall
Home court
USU at home. This season: USU 0-0 at home, IDST 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: IDST 6%, USU 26%. Transfers in: IDST 1, USU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: IDST plays 67.3 a game (266th fastest), USU 68.5 (207th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
IDST hits 33.6% and allows 34.5%; USU hits 34.3% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 41.9% and 40.8% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: IDST 38.0, USU 38.8. Allowed: IDST 38.0, USU 39.2
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
2 pts toward IDST
Total
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
IDST +3500 · USU -20000
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened USU -27.5 · now USU -26.5 · moved 1.5 toward IDSTmodel USU -28
Opened 145.5 · now 148.5 · moved 3 upmodel 151
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
IDST +25.5SpreadUSU -25.5
Bets
Money
Over 148.5TotalUnder 148.5
Bets
Money
IDSTWinnerUSU
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
IDSTUSUOverUnderIDSTUSU
BetMGMMGM-26.5-115+26.5-105148.5-110148.5-110+3000-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-25.5-105+25.5-115148-115148-105——
BetRiversBetRivers-26.5-114+26.5-112148.5-115148.5-110——
BetUSBetUS-25.5-105+25.5-115148-115148-105——
BovadaBovada-26-110+26-110149.5-110149.5-110——
DraftKingsDK-26.5-115+26.5-105146.5-112146.5-108+3500-20000
FanDuelFD-26.5-110+26.5-110148.5-110148.5-110+4000-30000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-25.5-101+25.5-111148-113148-103——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadUSU -25.5USU -28.1USU +2.6
Total148.5151.1Over 2.6
Projected score—IDST 61.5 · USU 89.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSU -16.6—
1H total70.6—
1H projected scoreIDST 27 · USU 43.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Idaho St 0, Utah State 0, even 5
Idaho StBetterUtah State
G L. Birley0.5 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G A. Bates TR12.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.8 ast Score 62
G E. Harel TR0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Falslev16.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 98
G A. Goffe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G D. Hall TR5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 49
G J. Dorsey NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G S. Callaghan TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 33
F Q. Patterson0.9 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F W. Hornseth TR11.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
Idaho StBetterUtah State
IDST offense324th of 366 · -10.6
USUBig
USU defense56th of 366 · +1.4
IDST defense349th of 366 · -9.6
USUBig
USU offense53rd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt-0.3 · 4 players
USUBig
Backcourt+2.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
USUBig
Frontcourt+2.6 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+3.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestIDST betterUSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Idaho St
Guards
L. Birley4 minE. Harel1 min · TRA. GoffeNewJ. DorseyNewM. MorrisNewT. VirgilNew
Forwards
Q. Patterson7 minM. JohnsonNewI. PalmerNewK. DeMuynckNewM. JohnsonNewB. LowenbachNew
Utah State
Guards
A. Bates34 min · TRM. Falslev33 minD. Hall28 min · TRS. Callaghan28 min · TRB. BoeNewA. ReiserNew
Forwards
W. Hornseth27 min · TRC. Turnbull21 min · TRK. Templin19 minC. Mulholland17 min · TRK. TosiNew
Centers
S. FeltsNewB. RobertsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
IDSTUSU
Scoring
73.6 #213Points per game81.3 #43
1.10 #135Points per possession1.19 #24
67.3 #266Pace (possessions)68.5 #207
Shooting
51.9 #151Effective FG%56.3 #18
33.6 #1923-point %34.3 #155
41.9 #1373-point attempt rate40.8 #152
38.0 #104Free throw rate38.8 #83
Possessions
17.1 #213Turnover rate15.1 #72
32.8 #94Offensive rebound rate32.7 #97
11.8 #302Assists per game17.1 #21
Defense
77.6 #255Points allowed71.2 #78
1.14 #314Points allowed per possession1.04 #72
54.5 #315Opponent effective FG%49.7 #87
34.5 #220Opponent 3-point %34.5 #222
14.6 #316Turnovers forced20.2 #18
72.1 #63Defensive rebound rate67.2 #290
5.2 #322Steals per game8.5 #17
4.0 #78Blocks per game2.9 #252
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Idaho St

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Portland St78–85
  • Wvs N Arizona73–65
  • L@ Sacramento St65–83
  • Lvs Weber St73–83
  • Wvs Montana St91–76

A week or more of rest.

Utah State

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona66–78
  • Wvs Villanova86–76
  • Wvs San Diego St73–62
  • Wvs Nevada79–66
  • Wvs UNLV80–60

A week or more of rest.