EagleBank Arena · at George Mason · NIT
Closing line
GMU -2.5✓ LIB covered by 8.5
GMU -2.5✓ LIB covered by 8.5Closing total141.5Over by 6.5
 LIB | This season | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| 22-7 | Record | 22-9 |
| 12-17 | ATS | 16-15 |
| 17-12 | O/U | 14-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LIB 66–72 GMU · ✗ GMU (71%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 34 | 43 | 77 |
| GMU | 24 | 47 | 71 |
1st half: LIB 34, GMU 24 (LIB by 10). The model had GMU by 3.6 and a total of 64.8 (actual 58).
Team stats
| LIB | GMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-55 49% | Field goals | 23-59 39% |
| 6-17 35% | 3-pointers | 5-17 29% |
| 17-20 85% | Free throws | 20-24 83% |
| 32 8 off | Rebounds | 36 15 off |
| 16 | Assists | 7 |
| 7 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| LIB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Decker Jr. G | 40 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 7-16 | 1-6 |
| Zach Cleveland F | 39 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 2-7 | 0-0 |
| Colin Porter G | 38 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3-11 | 3-7 |
| Josh Smith F | 31 | 23 | 9 | 1 | 7-9 | 2-2 |
| JJ Harper G | 20 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zander Carter G | 25 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Zander Yates F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: TJ Drain, Brady Kester, Drew Grimes, Torr Sorensen, Ryan Jones Jr., JC Shirer Jr., Kaden Metheny, Isaiah Ihnen
| GMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahari Long G | 40 | 27 | 1 | 4 | 9-17 | 4-7 |
| Kory Mincy G | 39 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6-17 | 1-5 |
| Riley Allenspach F | 25 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-2 |
| Masai Troutman G | 19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Nick Ellington F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Emmanuel Kanga F | 25 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Devin Booker G | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Stas Sivka F | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Malik Presley G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dola Adebayo F | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Isaiah Skinn, Ryan-Preston Mendy, Fatt Hill, T.J. Prosise, Ben Woodward, Brayden O'Connor
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenGMU -5.5
3 → LIB
CloseGMU -2.5
3 pts toward LIB
Total
Open143.5
▼ 2
Close141.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
LIB +142 · GMU -170
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened GMU -5.5 · closed GMU -2.5 · moved 3 toward LIBmodel GMU -6.5
model GMU -6.5
Opened 143.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 2 downmodel 138.5
model 138.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | GMU -2.5 | GMU -6.3 | GMU +3.8 | L LIB covered |
| Total | 141.5 | 138.3 | Under 3.2 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | LIB 66 · GMU 72.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | GMU -3.6 | LIB -10.0 |
| 1H total | 64.8 | 58 |
| 1H projected score | LIB 30.6 · GMU 34.2 | LIB 34 · GMU 24 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% | 7-3 70% |
| GMU | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Liberty
29 games played
Straight up
22-7
76% wins
Against the spread
12-17
41% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-12
59% overs · avg +4.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs COFC | W 90-75 | -9.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 9 | vs FAU | W 88-68 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs UVM | W 79-73 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TOW | L 69-72 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 26 | vs BRAD | L 64-74 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 6 | vs COPP | W 92-50 | -30.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 10 | @ NCSU | L 45-85 | +12.5 | L −27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 20 | @ DAY | W 64-61 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 28 | @ FIU | W 97-94 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 191 |
| Jan 2 | vs KENN | W 81-73 | -7.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 4 | vs JXST | W 78-69 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 134.5 | O 147 |
| Jan 8 | @ LT | W 72-56 | -4.5 | W +11.5 | 135.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 10 | @ SHSU | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 15 | vs NMSU | W 73-71 | -8.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs UTEP | W 80-69 | -13.5 | L −2.5 | 137.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 21 | @ WKU | W 76-69 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 24 | vs DEL | W 67-51 | -15.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 29 | @ MTSU | W 81-65 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 136.5 | O 146 |
| Feb 4 | @DEL | W 75-69 | -10.5 | L −4.5 | 132.5 | O 144 |
| Feb 7 | vs MOST | W 79-76 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 11 | @NMSU | W 77-75 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 14 | @UTEP | W 73-64 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 139.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 19 | vsFIU | W 90-89 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 152.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 21 | vsWKU | L 73-94 | -7.5 | L −28.5 | 147.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 26 | @KENN | L 65-74 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 28 | @JXST | W 81-78 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 139.5 | O 159 |
| Mar 5 | vsLT | L 71-76 | -8.5 | L −13.5 | 136.5 | O 147 |
| Mar 7 | vsSHSU | W 79-72 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Mar 11 | vsMOST | L 69-77 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | O 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+5.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+12.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
−2.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
−9.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−14.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
+11.5
10
@NCSU
NCSUL 45-85
−27.5
20
@DAY
DAYW 64-61
+12.5
28
@FIU
FIUW 97-94
−1.5
2
vsKENN
KENNW 81-73
+0.5
4
vsJXST
JXSTW 78-69
−0.5
8
@LT
LTW 72-56
+11.5
10
@SHSU
SHSUW 82-74
+6.5
15
vsNMSU
NMSUW 73-71
−6.5
17
vsUTEP
UTEPW 80-69
−2.5
21
@WKU
WKUW 76-69
+5.5
24
vsDEL
DELW 67-51
+0.5
29
@MTSU
MTSUW 81-65
+14.5
4
@DEL
DELW 75-69
−4.5
7
vsMOST
MOSTW 79-76
−6.5
11
@NMSU
NMSUW 77-75
−1.5
14
@UTEP
UTEPW 73-64
+2.5
19
vsFIU
FIUW 90-89
−8.5
21
vsWKU
WKUL 73-94
−28.5
26
@KENN
KENNL 65-74
−10.5
28
@JXST
JXSTW 81-78
−0.5
5
vsLT
LTL 71-76
−13.5
7
vsSHSU
SHSUW 79-72
+2.5
11
vsMOST
MOSTL 69-77
−12.5
covered 12didn’t cover 17avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+19.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+3.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
+10.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
+3.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−6.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
−1.5
10
@NCSU
NCSUL 45-85
−19.5
20
@DAY
DAYW 64-61
−17.5
28
@FIU
FIUW 97-94
+38.5
2
vsKENN
KENNW 81-73
−4.5
4
vsJXST
JXSTW 78-69
+12.5
8
@LT
LTW 72-56
−7.5
10
@SHSU
SHSUW 82-74
+1.5
15
vsNMSU
NMSUW 73-71
−1.5
17
vsUTEP
UTEPW 80-69
+11.5
21
@WKU
WKUW 76-69
−3.5
24
vsDEL
DELW 67-51
−16.5
29
@MTSU
MTSUW 81-65
+9.5
4
@DEL
DELW 75-69
+11.5
7
vsMOST
MOSTW 79-76
+14.5
11
@NMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+7.5
14
@UTEP
UTEPW 73-64
−2.5
19
vsFIU
FIUW 90-89
+26.5
21
vsWKU
WKUL 73-94
+19.5
26
@KENN
KENNL 65-74
−13.5
28
@JXST
JXSTW 81-78
+19.5
5
vsLT
LTL 71-76
+10.5
7
vsSHSU
SHSUW 79-72
−1.5
11
vsMOST
MOSTL 69-77
+3.5
over 17under 12avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
George Mason
31 games played
Straight up
22-9
71% wins
Against the spread
16-15
52% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-17
45% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WOF | W 70-46 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 140.5 | U 116 |
| Nov 7 | vs WIN | W 96-90 | -9.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | O 186 |
| Nov 15 | vs UNH | W 61-44 | -24.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 105 |
| Nov 18 | vs JAX | W 79-57 | -16.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 24 | vs OHIO | W 92-69 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 142.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 25 | vsFAU | W 74-65 | -4.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 29 | vs JMU | W 82-66 | -12.5 | W +3.5 | 141.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 2 | vs COR | W 99-81 | -10.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | @ VT | L 62-73 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 13 | vs ODU | W 73-61 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 21 | vs L-MD | W 86-79 | -23.5 | L −16.5 | 146.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 28 | vs PENN | W 83-79 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 146.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 31 | @ LAS | W 80-75 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 134.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 3 | vs URI | W 61-50 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | U 111 |
| Jan 7 | @ FOR | W 67-58 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 134.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | vs VCU | W 86-80 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 13 | @ LUC | W 82-74 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 19 | vs GW | W 69-64 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 24 | @URI | L 65-74 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 135.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 28 | vs DAV | W 60-52 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 134.5 | U 112 |
| Jan 31 | @ SBU | W 77-73 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 142.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 4 | vs DUQ | L 65-71 | -8.5 | L −14.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 7 | vs JOES | W 60-52 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 139.5 | U 112 |
| Feb 10 | @ RICH | L 70-82 | -3.5 | L −15.5 | 139.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 13 | @GW | L 53-72 | +3.5 | L −15.5 | 149.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 18 | vsDAY | L 67-82 | -2.5 | L −17.5 | 137.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 25 | @JOES | L 63-81 | -1.5 | L −19.5 | 136.5 | O 144 |
| Feb 28 | vsSBU | W 71-58 | -3.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Mar 3 | @VCU | L 65-70 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Mar 7 | vs SLU | W 86-57 | +7.5 | W +36.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Mar 12 | vsSBU | L 57-63 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 143.5 | U 120 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWOF
WOFW 70-46
+9.5
7
vsWIN
WINW 96-90
−3.5
15
vsUNH
UNHW 61-44
−7.5
18
vsJAX
JAXW 79-57
+5.5
24
vsOHIO
OHIOW 92-69
+15.5
25
vsFAU
FAUW 74-65
+4.5
29
vsJMU
JMUW 82-66
+3.5
2
vsCOR
CORW 99-81
+7.5
6
@VT
VTL 62-73
−6.5
13
vsODU
ODUW 73-61
−4.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 86-79
−16.5
28
vsPENN
PENNW 83-79
−12.5
31
@LAS
LASW 80-75
−3.5
3
vsURI
URIW 61-50
+4.5
7
@FOR
FORW 67-58
+3.5
10
vsVCU
VCUW 86-80
+7.5
13
@LUC
LUCW 82-74
−3.5
19
vsGW
GWW 69-64
+3.5
24
@URI
URIL 65-74
−10.5
28
vsDAV
DAVW 60-52
+1.5
31
@SBU
SBUW 77-73
+2.5
4
vsDUQ
DUQL 65-71
−14.5
7
vsJOES
JOESW 60-52
+1.5
10
@RICH
RICHL 70-82
−15.5
13
@GW
GWL 53-72
−15.5
18
vsDAY
DAYL 67-82
−17.5
25
@JOES
JOESL 63-81
−19.5
28
vsSBU
SBUW 71-58
+9.5
3
@VCU
VCUL 65-70
+4.5
7
vsSLU
SLUW 86-57
+36.5
12
vsSBU
SBUL 57-63
−8.5
covered 16didn’t cover 15avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWOF
WOFW 70-46
−24.5
7
vsWIN
WINW 96-90
+39.5
15
vsUNH
UNHW 61-44
−39.5
18
vsJAX
JAXW 79-57
−0.5
24
vsOHIO
OHIOW 92-69
+18.5
25
vsFAU
FAUW 74-65
−4.5
29
vsJMU
JMUW 82-66
+6.5
2
vsCOR
CORW 99-81
+24.5
6
@VT
VTL 62-73
−9.5
13
vsODU
ODUW 73-61
−10.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 86-79
+18.5
28
vsPENN
PENNW 83-79
+15.5
31
@LAS
LASW 80-75
+20.5
3
vsURI
URIW 61-50
−28.5
7
@FOR
FORW 67-58
−9.5
10
vsVCU
VCUW 86-80
+21.5
13
@LUC
LUCW 82-74
+15.5
19
vsGW
GWW 69-64
−20.5
24
@URI
URIL 65-74
+3.5
28
vsDAV
DAVW 60-52
−22.5
31
@SBU
SBUW 77-73
+7.5
4
vsDUQ
DUQL 65-71
−7.5
7
vsJOES
JOESW 60-52
−27.5
10
@RICH
RICHL 70-82
+12.5
13
@GW
GWL 53-72
−24.5
18
vsDAY
DAYL 67-82
+11.5
25
@JOES
JOESL 63-81
+7.5
28
vsSBU
SBUW 71-58
−17.5
3
@VCU
VCUL 65-70
−12.5
7
vsSLU
SLUW 86-57
−3.5
12
vsSBU
SBUL 57-63
−23.5
over 14under 17avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Liberty
22-7 overall · 17-4 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Missouri St69–77
- Wvs Sam Houston79–72
- Lvs Louisiana Tech71–76
- W@ Jax State81–78
- L@ Kennesaw St65–74
6 days since their last game.
George Mason
22-9 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs St Bonaventure57–63
- Wvs Saint Louis86–57
- L@ VCU65–70
- Wvs St Bonaventure71–58
- L@ Saint Joseph's63–81
5 days since their last game.