Enterprise Center · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
PUR -8.5✓ PUR covered by 1.5
PUR -8.5✓ PUR covered by 1.5Closing total146.5Over by 1.5
 MIA | This season | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| 26-8 | Record | 28-8 |
| 19-15 | ATS | 16-20 |
| 20-14 | O/U | 18-18 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIA 72–81 PUR · ✓ PUR (79%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 40 | 29 | 69 |
| PUR | 38 | 41 | 79 |
1st half: MIA 40, PUR 38 (MIA by 2). The model had PUR by 5.3 and a total of 71.1 (actual 78).
Team stats
| MIA | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-63 44% | Field goals | 25-47 53% |
| 5-19 26% | 3-pointers | 8-14 57% |
| 8-10 80% | Free throws | 21-22 95% |
| 33 14 off | Rebounds | 25 4 off |
| 17 | Assists | 17 |
| 9 | Steals | 8 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelton Henderson F | 40 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 9-11 | 0-1 |
| Tre Donaldson G | 36 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 4-15 | 2-6 |
| Malik Reneau F | 36 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 6-15 | 0-3 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 33 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Dante Allen G | 24 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3-7 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tru Washington G | 28 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 5-13 | 1-5 |
| Timo Malovec F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Noam Dovrat, JJ Laboy, Salih Altuntas, Jordyn Kee, Marcus Allen, Treyvon Maddox
| PUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith G | 38 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 3-12 | 0-4 |
| Fletcher Loyer G | 35 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 6-7 | 4-4 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn F | 35 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8-16 | 0-0 |
| Oscar Cluff C | 32 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| C.J. Cox G | 18 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 4-5 | 3-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Gicarri Harris G | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Omer Mayer G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Jack Benter G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Daniel Jacobsen C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jace Rayl, Jack Lusk, Aaron Fine, Antione West Jr, Liam Murphy, Sam King, Raleigh Burgess
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPUR -8.5
ModelPUR -9.1
Model edgePUR +0.6
W PUR covered
Total
Market146.5
Model152.1
Model edgeOver 5.6
W Over
Projected score
MIA 71.5 · PUR 80.6
MIA 69 · PUR 79
Win probability
PUR 79%
1st half
Spread
PUR -5.3
MIA -2.0
Total
71.1
78 points
Projected score
MIA 32.9 · PUR 38.2
MIA 40 · PUR 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPUR -7.5
1 → PUR
ClosePUR -8.5
1 pt toward PUR
Total
Open149.5
▼ 3
Close146.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
MIA +300 · PUR -380
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PUR -7.5 · closed PUR -8.5 · moved 1 toward PURmodel PUR -9
model PUR -9
Opened 149.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 3 downmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
| PUR | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Miami
34 games played
Straight up
26-8
76% wins
Against the spread
19-15
56% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
20-14
59% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vs PITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 7 | @ WAKE | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | vs GT | W 91-81 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 13 | @ ND | W 81-69 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ CLEM | L 59-69 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 20 | vs FSU | L 63-65 | -10.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ SYR | W 85-76 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 28 | vs STAN | W 79-70 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 31 | vs CAL | L 85-86 | -11.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 7 | @ BC | W 74-68 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Feb 10 | vs UNC | W 75-66 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 14 | @ NCSU | W 77-76 | +5.5 | W +6.5 | 157.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | vs VT | W 67-66 | -8.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 21 | @ UVA | L 83-86 | +7.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | @FSU | W 83-73 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | vsBC | W 76-54 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 4 | @ SMU | W 77-69 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 156.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 7 | vs LOU | L 89-92 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 12 | vsLOU | W 78-73 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | U 151 |
| Mar 13 | vsUVA | L 62-84 | +3.5 | L −18.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 20 | vs MIZ | W 80-66 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+5.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
−5.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−5.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−12.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+7.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
−0.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
−12.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
−2.5
10
vsUNC
UNCW 75-66
+7.5
14
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
+6.5
17
vsVT
VTW 67-66
−7.5
21
@UVA
UVAL 83-86
+4.5
24
@FSU
FSUW 83-73
+7.5
28
vsBC
BCW 76-54
+6.5
4
@SMU
SMUW 77-69
+9.5
7
vsLOU
LOUL 89-92
−4.5
12
vsLOU
LOUW 78-73
+6.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 62-84
−18.5
20
vsMIZ
MIZW 80-66
+12.5
covered 19didn’t cover 15avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+0.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
+15.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−15.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−35.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+11.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
+1.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
+22.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
+0.5
10
vsUNC
UNCW 75-66
−15.5
14
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
−4.5
17
vsVT
VTW 67-66
−15.5
21
@UVA
UVAL 83-86
+23.5
24
@FSU
FSUW 83-73
+3.5
28
vsBC
BCW 76-54
−13.5
4
@SMU
SMUW 77-69
−10.5
7
vsLOU
LOUL 89-92
+25.5
12
vsLOU
LOUW 78-73
−2.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 62-84
−0.5
20
vsMIZ
MIZW 80-66
+1.5
over 20under 14avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Purdue
36 games played
Straight up
28-8
78% wins
Against the spread
16-20
44% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-18
50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EVAN | W 82-51 | -33.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs OAK | W 87-77 | -31.5 | L −21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 13 | @ ALA | W 87-80 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 16 | vs AKR | W 97-79 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 20 | vs MEM | W 80-71 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs TTU | W 86-56 | -3.5 | W +26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 28 | vs EIU | W 109-62 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 2 | @ RUTG | W 81-65 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | vs ISU | L 58-81 | -4.5 | L −27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 10 | vs MINN | W 85-57 | -19.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs MARQ | W 79-59 | -16.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs AUB | W 88-60 | -7.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs KENT | W 101-60 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 3 | @ WIS | W 89-73 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 7 | vs WASH | W 81-73 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 10 | vs PSU | W 93-85 | -22.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 14 | vs IOWA | W 79-72 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 17 | @ USC | W 69-64 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 20 | @ UCLA | L 67-69 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 24 | vs ILL | L 82-88 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 27 | @ IU | L 67-72 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 1 | @ MD | W 93-63 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 7 | vs ORE | W 68-64 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 10 | @ NEB | W 80-77 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 146.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 14 | @IOWA | W 78-57 | -2.5 | W +18.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 17 | vs MICH | L 80-91 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 20 | vsIU | W 93-64 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 26 | vs MSU | L 74-76 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 1 | @ OSU | L 74-82 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | O 156 |
| Mar 4 | @ NU | W 70-66 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | U 136 |
| Mar 7 | vsWIS | L 93-97 | -9.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | O 190 |
| Mar 12 | vsNU | W 81-68 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 139.5 | O 149 |
| Mar 13 | vsNEB | W 74-58 | -4.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | U 132 |
| Mar 14 | vsUCLA | W 73-66 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 15 | vsMICH | W 80-72 | +4.5 | W +12.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Mar 20 | vs QUC | W 104-71 | -25.5 | W +7.5 | 159.5 | O 175 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−2.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
−21.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
+10.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
−0.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
+26.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+6.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
+2.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−27.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
+8.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
+3.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
+20.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+16.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+10.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−8.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
−14.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
−3.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−4.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−7.5
24
vsILL
ILLL 82-88
−11.5
27
@IU
IUL 67-72
−9.5
1
@MD
MDW 93-63
+14.5
7
vsORE
OREW 68-64
−15.5
10
@NEB
NEBW 80-77
+5.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAW 78-57
+18.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 80-91
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 93-64
+17.5
26
vsMSU
MSUL 74-76
−7.5
1
@OSU
OSUL 74-82
−14.5
4
@NU
NUW 70-66
−8.5
7
vsWIS
WISL 93-97
−13.5
12
vsNU
NUW 81-68
−0.5
13
vsNEB
NEBW 74-58
+11.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 73-66
−0.5
15
vsMICH
MICHW 80-72
+12.5
20
vsQUC
QUCW 104-71
+7.5
covered 16didn’t cover 20avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−17.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
+5.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
−5.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
+12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
−11.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+29.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
−0.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−15.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
−1.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
−16.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
−4.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+5.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+8.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−0.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
+25.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
+5.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−22.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−11.5
24
vsILL
ILLL 82-88
+17.5
27
@IU
IUL 67-72
−11.5
1
@MD
MDW 93-63
+7.5
7
vsORE
OREW 68-64
−12.5
10
@NEB
NEBW 80-77
+10.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAW 78-57
−7.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 80-91
+14.5
20
vsIU
IUW 93-64
+6.5
26
vsMSU
MSUL 74-76
+6.5
1
@OSU
OSUL 74-82
+6.5
4
@NU
NUW 70-66
−9.5
7
vsWIS
WISL 93-97
+35.5
12
vsNU
NUW 81-68
+9.5
13
vsNEB
NEBW 74-58
−13.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 73-66
−4.5
15
vsMICH
MICHW 80-72
+2.5
20
vsQUC
QUCW 104-71
+15.5
over 18under 18avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Miami
26-8 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Missouri80–66
- Lvs Virginia62–84
- Wvs Louisville78–73
- Lvs Louisville89–92
- W@ SMU77–69
2 days since their last game.
Purdue
28-8 overall · 17-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Queens University Royals104–71
- Wvs Michigan80–72
- Wvs UCLA73–66
- Wvs Nebraska74–58
- Wvs Northwestern81–68
2 days since their last game.