Enterprise Center · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
ISU -5.5✓ ISU covered by 13.5
ISU -5.5✓ ISU covered by 13.5Closing total146.5Under by 1.5
 UK | This season | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| 22-13 | Record | 28-7 |
| 18-17 | ATS | 21-14 |
| 18-17 | O/U | 15-20 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UK 72–78 ISU · ✓ ISU (68%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 30 | 33 | 63 |
| ISU | 31 | 51 | 82 |
1st half: UK 30, ISU 31 (ISU by 1). The model had ISU by 3.1 and a total of 70.0 (actual 61).
Team stats
| UK | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-45 47% | Field goals | 28-61 46% |
| 9-25 36% | 3-pointers | 9-28 32% |
| 12-17 71% | Free throws | 17-24 71% |
| 30 5 off | Rebounds | 31 9 off |
| 11 | Assists | 17 |
| 4 | Steals | 12 |
| 3 | Blocks | 0 |
| 20 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 37 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 6-14 | 4-9 |
| Otega Oweh G | 36 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 8-15 | 1-5 |
| Collin Chandler G | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 18 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 14 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brandon Garrison F | 22 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kam Williams G | 19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Mo Dioubate F | 18 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
Did not play: Zach Tow, Reece Potter, Trent Noah, Jaland Lowe, Walker Horn, Jayden Quaintance, Braydon Hawthorne
| ISU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamin Lipsey G | 37 | 26 | 3 | 10 | 8-15 | 3-6 |
| Nate Heise G | 36 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 5-8 | 1-4 |
| Milan Momcilovic F | 36 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 6-12 | 4-9 |
| Killyan Toure G | 31 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-3 |
| Blake Buchanan F | 31 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamarion Batemon G | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-8 | 1-5 |
| Dominykas Pleta F | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dominick Nelson G | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Joshua Jefferson, Anthony Rise, Mason Williams, Cade Kelderman, Eric Mulder, Xzavion Mitchell
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketISU -5.5
ModelISU -5.5
Model edge—
ISU covered
Total
Market146.5
Model149.6
Model edgeOver 3.1
L Under
Projected score
UK 72.1 · ISU 77.6
UK 63 · ISU 82
Win probability
ISU 68%
1st half
Spread
ISU -3.1
ISU -1.0
Total
70.0
61 points
Projected score
UK 33.4 · ISU 36.6
UK 30 · ISU 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenISU -5.5
no move
CloseISU -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open145.5
▲ 1
Close146.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
UK +195 · ISU -238
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ISU -5.5 · unchangedmodel ISU -5.5 matches the line
model ISU -5.5 = line ✓
Opened 145.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 1 upmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| ISU | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Kentucky
35 games played
Straight up
22-13
63% wins
Against the spread
18-17
51% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-17
51% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 9 | vs NCCU | W 103-67 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 13 | vs IU | W 72-60 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 20 | vs SJU | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 23 | vs BELL | W 99-85 | -34.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | @ ALA | L 74-89 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | vs MIZ | L 68-73 | -12.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | vs MSST | W 92-68 | -10.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | @ LSU | W 75-74 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ TENN | W 80-78 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 21 | vs TEX | W 85-80 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vs MISS | W 72-63 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @ VAN | L 55-80 | +5.5 | L −19.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ ARK | W 85-77 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs OU | W 94-78 | -8.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 7 | vsTENN | W 74-71 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 14 | @ FLA | L 83-92 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 17 | vs UGA | L 78-86 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 21 | @ AUB | L 74-75 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 24 | @ SC | W 72-63 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 28 | vsVAN | W 91-77 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Mar 3 | @ TA&M | L 85-96 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 7 | vsFLA | L 77-84 | +5.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | U 161 |
| Mar 11 | vsLSU | W 87-82 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 151.5 | O 169 |
| Mar 12 | vsMIZ | W 78-72 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 13 | vsFLA | L 63-71 | +10.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 20 | vs SCU | W 89-84 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 173 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
−6.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
+8.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
+10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
−20.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−9.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−17.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+13.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+8.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
−2.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−2.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−19.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+14.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+7.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
+1.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+3.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
−14.5
21
@AUB
AUBL 74-75
+2.5
24
@SC
SCW 72-63
+1.5
28
vsVAN
VANW 91-77
+12.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 85-96
−9.5
7
vsFLA
FLAL 77-84
−1.5
11
vsLSU
LSUW 87-82
−3.5
12
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-72
+3.5
13
vsFLA
FLAL 63-71
+2.5
20
vsSCU
SCUW 89-84
+1.5
covered 18didn’t cover 17avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
+21.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
−24.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
−10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
+31.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−10.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−9.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+7.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+12.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
+12.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−10.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−20.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+2.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+19.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
−2.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+20.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
+2.5
21
@AUB
AUBL 74-75
−4.5
24
@SC
SCW 72-63
−16.5
28
vsVAN
VANW 91-77
+10.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 85-96
+18.5
7
vsFLA
FLAL 77-84
−1.5
11
vsLSU
LSUW 87-82
+17.5
12
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-72
+1.5
13
vsFLA
FLAL 63-71
−27.5
20
vsSCU
SCUW 89-84
+15.5
over 18under 17avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Iowa State
35 games played
Straight up
28-7
80% wins
Against the spread
21-14
60% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-20
43% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FDU | W 88-50 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 6 | vs GRAM | W 102-62 | -33.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 10 | vsMSST | W 96-80 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 17 | vs STO | W 96-57 | -40.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 24 | vsSJU | W 83-82 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 25 | vs CREI | W 78-60 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 26 | vs SYR | W 95-64 | -10.5 | W +20.5 | 145.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 3 | vs ALCN | W 132-68 | -42.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | O 200 |
| Dec 6 | @ PUR | W 81-58 | +4.5 | W +27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 11 | vs IOWA | W 66-62 | -11.5 | L −7.5 | 141.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 14 | vsEIU | W 78-53 | -43.5 | L −18.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 21 | vs LBSU | W 91-60 | -37.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 29 | vs HCU | W 89-61 | -35.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 2 | vs WVU | W 80-59 | -16.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 7 | @ BAY | W 70-60 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | vs OKST | W 83-71 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 13 | @ KU | L 63-84 | -3.5 | L −24.5 | 152.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | @ CIN | L 70-79 | -5.5 | L −14.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 20 | vs UCF | W 87-57 | -14.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @OKST | W 84-71 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 162.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 29 | vs COLO | W 97-67 | -17.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 1 | @ KSU | W 95-61 | -12.5 | W +21.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 7 | vsBAY | W 72-69 | -14.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 10 | @ TCU | L 55-62 | -7.5 | L −14.5 | 147.5 | U 117 |
| Feb 14 | vsKU | W 74-56 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 16 | vs HOU | W 70-67 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | O 137 |
| Feb 21 | @ BYU | L 69-79 | -2.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 24 | @ UTAH | W 75-59 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 28 | vs TTU | L 73-82 | -10.5 | L −19.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Mar 2 | @ ARIZ | L 57-73 | +7.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 7 | vs ASU | W 86-65 | -16.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Mar 11 | vsASU | W 91-42 | -13.5 | W +35.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 12 | vsTTU | W 75-53 | -7.5 | W +14.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Mar 13 | vsARIZ | L 80-82 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 162 |
| Mar 20 | vs TNST | W 108-74 | -24.5 | W +9.5 | 147.5 | O 182 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFDU
FDUW 88-50
+0.5
6
vsGRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+6.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 96-80
+10.5
17
vsSTO
STOW 96-57
−1.5
24
vsSJU
SJUW 83-82
−1.5
25
vsCREI
CREIW 78-60
+8.5
26
vsSYR
SYRW 95-64
+20.5
3
vsALCN
ALCNW 132-68
+21.5
6
@PUR
PURW 81-58
+27.5
11
vsIOWA
IOWAW 66-62
−7.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 78-53
−18.5
21
vsLBSU
LBSUW 91-60
−6.5
29
vsHCU
HCUW 89-61
−7.5
2
vsWVU
WVUW 80-59
+4.5
7
@BAY
BAYW 70-60
+6.5
10
vsOKST
OKSTW 83-71
−7.5
13
@KU
KUL 63-84
−24.5
17
@CIN
CINL 70-79
−14.5
20
vsUCF
UCFW 87-57
+15.5
24
@OKST
OKSTW 84-71
+2.5
29
vsCOLO
COLOW 97-67
+12.5
1
@KSU
KSUW 95-61
+21.5
7
vsBAY
BAYW 72-69
−11.5
10
@TCU
TCUL 55-62
−14.5
14
vsKU
KUW 74-56
+10.5
16
vsHOU
HOUW 70-67
+0.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 69-79
−12.5
24
@UTAH
UTAHW 75-59
+1.5
28
vsTTU
TTUL 73-82
−19.5
2
@ARIZ
ARIZL 57-73
−8.5
7
vsASU
ASUW 86-65
+4.5
11
vsASU
ASUW 91-42
+35.5
12
vsTTU
TTUW 75-53
+14.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 80-82
+1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 108-74
+9.5
covered 21didn’t cover 14avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFDU
FDUW 88-50
−9.5
6
vsGRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+19.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 96-80
+25.5
17
vsSTO
STOW 96-57
+6.5
24
vsSJU
SJUW 83-82
+6.5
25
vsCREI
CREIW 78-60
−14.5
26
vsSYR
SYRW 95-64
+13.5
3
vsALCN
ALCNW 132-68
+48.5
6
@PUR
PURW 81-58
−15.5
11
vsIOWA
IOWAW 66-62
−13.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 78-53
−13.5
21
vsLBSU
LBSUW 91-60
+1.5
29
vsHCU
HCUW 89-61
+4.5
2
vsWVU
WVUW 80-59
−3.5
7
@BAY
BAYW 70-60
−25.5
10
vsOKST
OKSTW 83-71
−11.5
13
@KU
KUL 63-84
−5.5
17
@CIN
CINL 70-79
+7.5
20
vsUCF
UCFW 87-57
−12.5
24
@OKST
OKSTW 84-71
−7.5
29
vsCOLO
COLOW 97-67
+11.5
1
@KSU
KSUW 95-61
−0.5
7
vsBAY
BAYW 72-69
−10.5
10
@TCU
TCUL 55-62
−30.5
14
vsKU
KUW 74-56
−17.5
16
vsHOU
HOUW 70-67
+2.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 69-79
−6.5
24
@UTAH
UTAHW 75-59
−10.5
28
vsTTU
TTUL 73-82
+9.5
2
@ARIZ
ARIZL 57-73
−19.5
7
vsASU
ASUW 86-65
+2.5
11
vsASU
ASUW 91-42
−15.5
12
vsTTU
TTUW 75-53
−15.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 80-82
+17.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 108-74
+34.5
over 15under 20avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Kentucky
22-13 overall · 12-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Santa Clara89–84
- Lvs Florida63–71
- Wvs Missouri78–72
- Wvs LSU87–82
- Lvs Florida77–84
2 days since their last game.
Iowa State
28-7 overall · 14-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Tennessee St108–74
- Lvs Arizona80–82
- Wvs Texas Tech75–53
- Wvs Arizona St91–42
- Wvs Arizona St86–65
2 days since their last game.