Watsco Center · at Miami · Conference game
Closing line
MIA -1.5✓ LOU covered by 4.5
MIA -1.5✓ LOU covered by 4.5Closing total155.5Over by 25.5
 LOU | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21-9 | Record | 24-6 |
| 14-16 | ATS | 17-13 |
| 12-18 | O/U | 18-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 80–78 MIA · ✓ LOU (59%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 46 | 46 | 92 |
| MIA | 37 | 52 | 89 |
1st half: LOU 46, MIA 37 (LOU by 9). The model had LOU by 1.6 and a total of 73.6 (actual 83).
Team stats
| LOU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-53 60% | Field goals | 31-55 56% |
| 12-24 50% | 3-pointers | 8-19 42% |
| 14-21 67% | Free throws | 19-23 83% |
| 22 6 off | Rebounds | 26 9 off |
| 22 | Assists | 22 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 1 | Blocks | 1 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Conwell G | 37 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 7-14 | 4-9 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 35 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6-11 | 2-6 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 33 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 6-8 | 2-3 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 28 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sananda Fru F | 23 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 11 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Khani Rooths F | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Spencer Legg, Cole Sherman, London Johnson, Mikel Brown Jr., Mouhamed Camara, Will Hanke, Kasean Pryor
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 37 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Tre Donaldson G | 36 | 25 | 0 | 6 | 11-16 | 3-6 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 33 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-1 |
| Malik Reneau F | 26 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Dante Allen G | 24 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tru Washington G | 26 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 4-11 | 2-5 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 15 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Treyvon Maddox, Jordyn Kee, Timo Malovec, Marcus Allen, JJ Laboy
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -1.5
3 → MIA
CloseMIA -1.5
3 pts toward MIA
Total
Open156.5
▼ 1
Close155.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
LOU +105 · MIA -125
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -1.5 · closed MIA -1.5 · moved 3 toward MIAmodel LOU -2.5
model LOU -2.5
Opened 156.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 1 downmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MIA -1.5 | LOU -2.5 | LOU +4.0 | W LOU covered |
| Total | 155.5 | 157.5 | Over 2.0 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | LOU 80 · MIA 77.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LOU -1.6 | LOU -9.0 |
| 1H total | 73.6 | 83 |
| 1H projected score | LOU 37.6 · MIA 36 | LOU 46 · MIA 37 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| MIA | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LOU 2–3 MIAMIA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · LOU has won the last 2 meetings · LOU 2-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2024-25 | MIA 78 @ LOU 88 | LOU -17.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 10, 2023-24 | LOU 80 @ MIA 71 | MIA -16.5 | LOU W |
| Feb 11, 2022-23 | LOU 85 @ MIA 93 | MIA -20.5 | LOU W |
| Dec 4, 2022-23 | MIA 80 @ LOU 53 | LOU +10.5 | MIA W |
| Feb 16, 2021-22 | MIA 70 @ LOU 63 | LOU +2.5 | MIA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
30 games played
Straight up
21-9
70% wins
Against the spread
14-16
47% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-18
40% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs BC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs UVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vs VT | W 85-71 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 26 | @DUKE | L 52-83 | +8.5 | L −22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vs SMU | W 88-74 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs ND | W 76-65 | -19.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | @ WAKE | W 88-80 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 9 | vs NCSU | W 118-77 | -6.5 | W +34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 14 | vs BAY | W 82-71 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | @SMU | L 85-95 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 21 | vs GT | W 87-70 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 167.5 | U 157 |
| Feb 23 | @ UNC | L 74-77 | -3.5 | L −6.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | @ CLEM | L 75-80 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
| Mar 3 | vs SYR | W 77-62 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−0.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
+4.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−8.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
−1.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+34.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
+3.5
17
@SMU
SMUL 85-95
−14.5
21
vsGT
GTW 87-70
−6.5
23
@UNC
UNCL 74-77
−6.5
28
@CLEM
CLEML 75-80
−7.5
3
vsSYR
SYRW 77-62
+0.5
covered 14didn’t cover 16avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−4.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
−1.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−14.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
+5.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+33.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
−9.5
17
@SMU
SMUL 85-95
+11.5
21
vsGT
GTW 87-70
−10.5
23
@UNC
UNCL 74-77
−11.5
28
@CLEM
CLEML 75-80
+8.5
3
vsSYR
SYRW 77-62
−20.5
over 12under 18avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miami
30 games played
Straight up
24-6
80% wins
Against the spread
17-13
57% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-12
60% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vsPITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 7 | @WAKE | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | vsGT | W 91-81 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 13 | @ND | W 81-69 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @CLEM | L 59-69 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 20 | vs FSU | L 63-65 | -10.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @SYR | W 85-76 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 28 | vsSTAN | W 79-70 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 31 | vsCAL | L 85-86 | -11.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 7 | @BC | W 74-68 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Feb 10 | vsUNC | W 75-66 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 14 | @NCSU | W 77-76 | +5.5 | W +6.5 | 157.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | vsVT | W 67-66 | -8.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 21 | @UVA | L 83-86 | +7.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | @FSU | W 83-73 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | vsBC | W 76-54 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 4 | @SMU | W 77-69 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 156.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+5.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
−5.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−5.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−12.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+7.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
−0.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
−12.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
−2.5
10
vsUNC
UNCW 75-66
+7.5
14
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
+6.5
17
vsVT
VTW 67-66
−7.5
21
@UVA
UVAL 83-86
+4.5
24
@FSU
FSUW 83-73
+7.5
28
vsBC
BCW 76-54
+6.5
4
@SMU
SMUW 77-69
+9.5
covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+0.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
+15.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−15.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−35.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+11.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
+1.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
+22.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
+0.5
10
vsUNC
UNCW 75-66
−15.5
14
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
−4.5
17
vsVT
VTW 67-66
−15.5
21
@UVA
UVAL 83-86
+23.5
24
@FSU
FSUW 83-73
+3.5
28
vsBC
BCW 76-54
−13.5
4
@SMU
SMUW 77-69
−10.5
over 18under 12avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
21-9 overall · 10-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Syracuse77–62
- L@ Clemson75–80
- L@ North Carolina74–77
- Wvs Georgia Tech87–70
- L@ SMU85–95
4 days since their last game.
Miami
24-6 overall · 13-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ SMU77–69
- Wvs Boston College76–54
- W@ Florida St83–73
- L@ Virginia83–86
- Wvs Virginia Tech67–66
3 days since their last game.