Rupp Arena · at Kentucky · Conference game
Closing line
FLA -5.5✓ FLA covered by 1.5
FLA -5.5✓ FLA covered by 1.5Closing total162.5Under by 1.5
| FLA | This season | UK |
|---|---|---|
| 24-6 | Record | 19-11 |
| 17-13 | ATS | 15-15 |
| 13-17 | O/U | 15-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FLA 83–76 UK · ✓ FLA (75%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 49 | 35 | 84 |
| UK | 32 | 45 | 77 |
1st half: FLA 49, UK 32 (FLA by 17). The model had FLA by 4.6 and a total of 74.1 (actual 81).
Team stats
| FLA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-61 46% | Field goals | 26-66 39% |
| 8-18 44% | 3-pointers | 8-23 35% |
| 20-32 63% | Free throws | 17-21 81% |
| 41 14 off | Rebounds | 40 14 off |
| 20 | Assists | 17 |
| 7 | Steals | 7 |
| 6 | Blocks | 4 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 25 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 24 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| FLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Haugh F | 37 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 7-14 | 3-6 |
| Boogie Fland G | 33 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 4-8 | 2-3 |
| Xaivian Lee G | 31 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 4-11 | 1-3 |
| Alex Condon F | 28 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Rueben Chinyelu C | 26 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaiah Brown G | 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Urban Klavzar G | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Micah Handlogten C | 14 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Viktor Mikic, Alex Lloyd, CJ Ingram, Olivier Rioux, AJ Brown, Alex Kovatchev, Cooper Josefsberg
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otega Oweh G | 38 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 8-21 | 4-8 |
| Collin Chandler G | 35 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 35 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 4-13 | 1-6 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 27 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 21 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mo Dioubate F | 18 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-1 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 14 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Trent Noah F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Reece Potter, Zach Tow, Kam Williams, Braydon Hawthorne, Jayden Quaintance, Walker Horn, Jaland Lowe
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFLA -5.5
ModelFLA -7.6
Model edgeFLA +2.1
W FLA covered
Total
Market162.5
Model158.6
Model edgeUnder 3.9
W Under
Projected score
FLA 83.1 · UK 75.5
FLA 84 · UK 77
Win probability
FLA 75%
1st half
Spread
FLA -4.6
FLA -17.0
Total
74.1
81 points
Projected score
FLA 39.4 · UK 34.7
FLA 49 · UK 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFLA -7.5
2 → UK
CloseFLA -5.5
2 pts toward UK
Total
Open156.5
▲ 6
Close162.5
Up 6 since the open
Moneyline
FLA -258 · UK +210
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FLA -7.5 · closed FLA -5.5 · moved 2 toward UKmodel FLA -7.5
model FLA -7.5
Opened 156.5 · closed 162.5 · moved 6 upmodel 158.5
model 158.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 10-0 100% | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% |
| UK | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
FLA 2–6 UKUK leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · FLA 2-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2025-26 | UK 83 @ FLA 92 | FLA -12.5 | UK W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | FLA 100 @ UK 106 | UK -3.5 | UK W |
| Jan 31, 2023-24 | FLA 94 @ UK 91 | UK -7.5 | FLA W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | UK 87 @ FLA 85 | FLA -3.5 | UK W |
| Feb 22, 2022-23 | UK 82 @ FLA 74 | FLA +2.5 | UK W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Florida
30 games played
Straight up
24-6
80% wins
Against the spread
17-13
57% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-17
43% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARIZ | L 87-93 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 6 | vs UNF | W 104-64 | -43.5 | L −3.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs FSU | W 78-76 | -17.5 | L −15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | vs MIA | W 82-68 | -10.5 | W +3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 21 | vs MRMK | W 80-45 | -36.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 27 | vs TCU | L 80-84 | -11.5 | L −15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs PROV | W 90-78 | -12.5 | L −0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | @ DUKE | L 66-67 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 9 | vs CONN | L 73-77 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs GW | W 80-70 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 17 | vs SFPA | W 102-61 | -44.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLG | W 90-60 | -27.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | vs DART | W 94-72 | -35.5 | L −13.5 | 160.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 3 | @ MIZ | L 74-76 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 6 | vs UGA | W 92-77 | -9.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Jan 10 | vs TENN | W 91-67 | -4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 13 | @ OU | W 96-79 | -7.5 | W +9.5 | 157.5 | O 175 |
| Jan 17 | @ VAN | W 98-94 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 164.5 | O 192 |
| Jan 20 | vs LSU | W 79-61 | -15.5 | W +2.5 | 158.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vs AUB | L 67-76 | -11.5 | L −20.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 28 | @ SC | W 95-48 | -13.5 | W +33.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 1 | vs ALA | W 100-77 | -9.5 | W +13.5 | 176.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 7 | @ TA&M | W 86-67 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 167.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 11 | @UGA | W 86-66 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 164.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 14 | vsUK | W 92-83 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 17 | vsSC | W 76-62 | -23.5 | L −9.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 21 | @ MISS | W 94-75 | -13.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 25 | @ TEX | W 84-71 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 28 | vs ARK | W 111-77 | -9.5 | W +24.5 | 169.5 | O 188 |
| Mar 3 | vs MSST | W 108-74 | -20.5 | W +13.5 | 161.5 | O 182 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
−9.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−3.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−15.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
+3.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−1.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
−15.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−0.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
+8.5
9
vsCONN
CONNL 73-77
+0.5
13
vsGW
GWW 80-70
−4.5
17
vsSFPA
SFPAW 102-61
−3.5
21
vsCOLG
COLGW 90-60
+2.5
29
vsDART
DARTW 94-72
−13.5
3
@MIZ
MIZL 74-76
−9.5
6
vsUGA
UGAW 92-77
+5.5
10
vsTENN
TENNW 91-67
+19.5
13
@OU
OUW 96-79
+9.5
17
@VAN
VANW 98-94
+2.5
20
vsLSU
LSUW 79-61
+2.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 67-76
−20.5
28
@SC
SCW 95-48
+33.5
1
vsALA
ALAW 100-77
+13.5
7
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-67
+13.5
11
@UGA
UGAW 86-66
+11.5
14
vsUK
UKW 92-83
−3.5
17
vsSC
SCW 76-62
−9.5
21
@MISS
MISSW 94-75
+5.5
25
@TEX
TEXW 84-71
+6.5
28
vsARK
ARKW 111-77
+24.5
3
vsMSST
MSSTW 108-74
+13.5
covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
+15.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−1.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−26.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
−21.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−33.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
+8.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−1.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
−24.5
9
vsCONN
CONNL 73-77
+4.5
13
vsGW
GWW 80-70
−12.5
17
vsSFPA
SFPAW 102-61
+6.5
21
vsCOLG
COLGW 90-60
−6.5
29
vsDART
DARTW 94-72
+5.5
3
@MIZ
MIZL 74-76
−4.5
6
vsUGA
UGAW 92-77
−3.5
10
vsTENN
TENNW 91-67
+6.5
13
@OU
OUW 96-79
+17.5
17
@VAN
VANW 98-94
+27.5
20
vsLSU
LSUW 79-61
−18.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 67-76
−16.5
28
@SC
SCW 95-48
−8.5
1
vsALA
ALAW 100-77
+0.5
7
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-67
−14.5
11
@UGA
UGAW 86-66
−12.5
14
vsUK
UKW 92-83
+20.5
17
vsSC
SCW 76-62
−18.5
21
@MISS
MISSW 94-75
+16.5
25
@TEX
TEXW 84-71
−2.5
28
vsARK
ARKW 111-77
+18.5
3
vsMSST
MSSTW 108-74
+20.5
over 13under 17avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kentucky
30 games played
Straight up
19-11
63% wins
Against the spread
15-15
50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-15
50% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 9 | vs NCCU | W 103-67 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 13 | vs IU | W 72-60 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 20 | vs SJU | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 23 | vs BELL | W 99-85 | -34.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | @ALA | L 74-89 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | vsMIZ | L 68-73 | -12.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | vsMSST | W 92-68 | -10.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | @LSU | W 75-74 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @TENN | W 80-78 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 21 | vsTEX | W 85-80 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vsMISS | W 72-63 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @VAN | L 55-80 | +5.5 | L −19.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ARK | W 85-77 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 4 | vsOU | W 94-78 | -8.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 7 | vsTENN | W 74-71 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 14 | @FLA | L 83-92 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 17 | vsUGA | L 78-86 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 21 | @AUB | L 74-75 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 24 | @SC | W 72-63 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 28 | vsVAN | W 91-77 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Mar 3 | @TA&M | L 85-96 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 181 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
−6.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
+8.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
+10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
−20.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−9.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−17.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+13.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+8.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
−2.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−2.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−19.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+14.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+7.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
+1.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+3.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
−14.5
21
@AUB
AUBL 74-75
+2.5
24
@SC
SCW 72-63
+1.5
28
vsVAN
VANW 91-77
+12.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 85-96
−9.5
covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
+21.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
−24.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
−10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
+31.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−10.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−9.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+7.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+12.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
+12.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−10.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−20.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+2.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+19.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
−2.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+20.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
+2.5
21
@AUB
AUBL 74-75
−4.5
24
@SC
SCW 72-63
−16.5
28
vsVAN
VANW 91-77
+10.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 85-96
+18.5
over 15under 15avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Florida
24-6 overall · 15-2 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Mississippi St108–74
- Wvs Arkansas111–77
- W@ Texas84–71
- W@ Ole Miss94–75
- Wvs South Carolina76–62
4 days since their last game.
Kentucky
19-11 overall · 10-7 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Texas A&M85–96
- Wvs Vanderbilt91–77
- W@ South Carolina72–63
- L@ Auburn74–75
- Lvs Georgia78–86
4 days since their last game.