Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St · Conference game
Closing line
MIZ -1.5✓ MIZ covered by 22.5
MIZ -1.5✓ MIZ covered by 22.5Closing total154.5Under by 2.5
| MIZ | This season | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 19-9 | Record | 13-15 |
| 13-15 | ATS | 10-18 |
| 13-15 | O/U | 14-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIZ 79–78 MSST · ✓ MIZ (55%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 54 | 34 | 88 |
| MSST | 23 | 41 | 64 |
1st half: MIZ 54, MSST 23 (MIZ by 31). The model had MIZ by 0.9 and a total of 73.1 (actual 77).
Team stats
| MIZ | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-59 51% | Field goals | 26-53 49% |
| 8-20 40% | 3-pointers | 5-19 26% |
| 20-24 83% | Free throws | 7-13 54% |
| 38 14 off | Rebounds | 26 8 off |
| 12 | Assists | 9 |
| 9 | Steals | 9 |
| 5 | Blocks | 6 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| MIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Stone G | 33 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Trent Pierce G | 33 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Mark Mitchell Jr. G | 29 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 6-11 | 0-0 |
| T.O. Barrett F | 24 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Shawn Phillips Jr. C | 21 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Anthony Robinson II G | 23 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 4-10 | 3-6 |
| Trent Burns C | 19 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-2 |
| Jacob Crews G | 18 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
Did not play: Luke Northweather, Aaron Rowe, Nicholas Randall, Sebastian Mack, Annor Boateng, Jevon Porter
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 34 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 6-14 | 2-6 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 29 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 22 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Jayden Epps G | 20 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-2 |
| Achor Achor F | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| King Grace G | 22 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 21 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Sergej Macura F | 17 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Brandon Walker, Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Amier Ali, Gai Chol
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIZ -1.5
no move
CloseMIZ -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open154.5
no move
Close154.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MIZ -130 · MSST +110
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIZ -1.5 · unchangedmodel MIZ -1.5 matches the line
model MIZ -1.5 = line ✓
Opened 154.5 · unchangedmodel 156.5
model 156.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MIZ -1.5 | MIZ -1.4 | MSST +0.1 | L MIZ covered |
| Total | 154.5 | 156.3 | Over 1.8 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | MIZ 78.8 · MSST 77.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MIZ -0.9 | MIZ -31.0 |
| 1H total | 73.1 | 77 |
| 1H projected score | MIZ 37 · MSST 36.1 | MIZ 54 · MSST 23 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| MSST | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
MIZ 4–4 MSSTSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · MIZ has won the last 3 meetings · MIZ 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2025-26 | MSST 79 @ MIZ 84 | MIZ -6.5 | MSST W |
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | MSST 73 vs MIZ 85 | MIZ -3.5 | MIZ W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | MIZ 88 @ MSST 61 | MSST -6.5 | MIZ W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | MSST 75 @ MIZ 51 | MIZ +6.5 | MSST W |
| Feb 21, 2022-23 | MSST 64 @ MIZ 66 | MIZ -3.5 | MSST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Missouri
28 games played
Straight up
19-9
68% wins
Against the spread
13-15
46% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-15
46% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ HOW | W 88-67 | -20.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 7 | vs SEMO | W 89-84 | -25.5 | L −20.5 | 157.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 9 | vs VMI | W 106-68 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 12 | vs MINN | W 83-60 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 17 | vs PV | W 91-73 | -35.5 | L −17.5 | 166.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 20 | vs SDAK | W 102-68 | -24.5 | W +9.5 | 171.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs SCST | W 98-66 | -34.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs CLE | W 86-59 | -31.5 | L −4.5 | 170.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 2 | @ ND | L 71-76 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 7 | vs KU | L 60-80 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 11 | vs ALST | W 85-77 | -26.5 | L −18.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | vs BCU | W 82-60 | -20.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 22 | vs ILL | L 48-91 | +8.5 | L −34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | vs FLA | W 76-74 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 7 | @ UK | W 73-68 | +12.5 | W +17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | @ MISS | L 69-76 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 14 | vs AUB | W 84-74 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 17 | @ LSU | L 70-78 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 20 | vs UGA | L 72-74 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 163.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 24 | vs OU | W 88-87 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 151.5 | O 175 |
| Jan 27 | @ ALA | L 64-90 | +10.5 | L −15.5 | 167.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 31 | vsMSST | W 84-79 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | @ SC | W 78-59 | -3.5 | W +15.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 11 | @ TA&M | W 86-85 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 14 | vs TEX | L 68-85 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 18 | vs VAN | W 81-80 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 21 | @ ARK | L 86-94 | +9.5 | W +1.5 | 159.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 24 | vs TENN | W 73-69 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
+0.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
−20.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+14.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
+15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−17.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
+9.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
−2.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−4.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
−6.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−14.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
−18.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
+1.5
22
vsILL
ILLL 48-91
−34.5
3
vsFLA
FLAW 76-74
+9.5
7
@UK
UKW 73-68
+17.5
10
@MISS
MISSL 69-76
−5.5
14
vsAUB
AUBW 84-74
+11.5
17
@LSU
LSUL 70-78
−6.5
20
vsUGA
UGAL 72-74
−3.5
24
vsOU
OUW 88-87
−3.5
27
@ALA
ALAL 64-90
−15.5
31
vsMSST
MSSTW 84-79
−1.5
7
@SC
SCW 78-59
+15.5
11
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-85
+8.5
14
vsTEX
TEXL 68-85
−19.5
18
vsVAN
VANW 81-80
+4.5
21
@ARK
ARKL 86-94
+1.5
24
vsTENN
TENNW 73-69
+7.5
covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
−3.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
+15.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+12.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
−15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−2.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
−1.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
+3.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−25.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
+0.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−10.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
+6.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
−4.5
22
vsILL
ILLL 48-91
−14.5
3
vsFLA
FLAW 76-74
−4.5
7
@UK
UKW 73-68
−9.5
10
@MISS
MISSL 69-76
+1.5
14
vsAUB
AUBW 84-74
+4.5
17
@LSU
LSUL 70-78
−0.5
20
vsUGA
UGAL 72-74
−17.5
24
vsOU
OUW 88-87
+23.5
27
@ALA
ALAL 64-90
−13.5
31
vsMSST
MSSTW 84-79
+16.5
7
@SC
SCW 78-59
−10.5
11
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-85
+10.5
14
vsTEX
TEXL 68-85
+2.5
18
vsVAN
VANW 81-80
+6.5
21
@ARK
ARKL 86-94
+20.5
24
vsTENN
TENNW 73-69
−1.5
over 13under 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mississippi St
28 games played
Straight up
13-15
46% wins
Against the spread
10-18
36% covers · avg −3.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-14
50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vsALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vsOU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @UK | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsALA | L 82-97 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | vsMISS | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @TA&M | L 68-88 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 24 | vsVAN | L 56-88 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @LSU | W 80-66 | +7.5 | W +21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @MIZ | L 79-84 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | vsARK | L 68-88 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 11 | vsTENN | L 64-73 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 14 | @MISS | W 90-78 | +3.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 18 | vsAUB | W 91-85 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 21 | @SC | L 89-97 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 186 |
| Feb 25 | @ALA | L 75-100 | +12.5 | L −12.5 | 176.5 | U 175 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
−13.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
−10.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−4.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−11.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−24.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
+21.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+1.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−14.5
11
vsTENN
TENNL 64-73
−0.5
14
@MISS
MISSW 90-78
+15.5
18
vsAUB
AUBW 91-85
+11.5
21
@SC
SCL 89-97
−9.5
25
@ALA
ALAL 75-100
−12.5
covered 10didn’t cover 18avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
+7.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
+7.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−12.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−7.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−15.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
−8.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+16.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−7.5
11
vsTENN
TENNL 64-73
−10.5
14
@MISS
MISSW 90-78
+21.5
18
vsAUB
AUBW 91-85
+20.5
21
@SC
SCL 89-97
+34.5
25
@ALA
ALAL 75-100
−1.5
over 14under 14avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Missouri
19-9 overall · 9-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Tennessee73–69
- L@ Arkansas86–94
- Wvs Vanderbilt81–80
- Lvs Texas68–85
- W@ Texas A&M86–85
4 days since their last game.
Mississippi St
13-15 overall · 5-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Alabama75–100
- L@ South Carolina89–97
- Wvs Auburn91–85
- W@ Ole Miss90–78
- Lvs Tennessee64–73
3 days since their last game.