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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Monmouth @ Cincinnati

Fifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati
#155MONMMonmouth
@
#30CINCincinnati
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MONMThis seasonCIN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CIN 83–63 · win probability CIN 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CIN has more of the edges

MONM 2, CIN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
MONM has played the 190th-hardest schedule, CIN the 39th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CINBig
MONM offense vs CIN defense
Offense 173rd of 366 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
CINBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MONM 31.2%, CIN 30.6%. Defensive: MONM 67.2%, CIN 72.7%
CINSmall
CIN offense vs MONM defense
Offense 49th of 366 against a defense 145th, on the model’s ratings
MONMSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MONM 37%, CIN 1%. Transfers in: MONM 5, CIN 12. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
CINSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MONM 49.6 and allows 50.0; CIN 50.5 and allows 47.4
CINSmall
Three-pointers
MONM hits 34.2% and allows 33.9%; CIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 34.4% and 43.8% of their shots
CINSmall
Home court
CIN at home. This season: CIN 0-0 at home, MONM 0-0 away
MONMSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MONM 16.7%, CIN 17.0%. Forced: MONM 19.8%, CIN 18.2%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MONM plays 67.9 a game (234th fastest), CIN 69.4 (152nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MONM 32.7, CIN 29.4. Allowed: MONM 32.2, CIN 30.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelCIN -20.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model145.7
Model edge—
Projected score
MONM 62.8 · CIN 83
Win probability
CIN 96%
1st half
Spread
CIN -11.9
Total
68.2
Projected score
MONM 28.1 · CIN 40
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Cincinnati has the better starters

Position by position: Monmouth 0, Cincinnati 4, even 1
MonmouthBetterCincinnati
G J. Collins6.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 18
CINBig
G J. Campbell TR19.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 95
G J. Sanders TR10.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.4 ast Score 39
CINBig
G T. Carson TR12.2 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 75
G L. Walker TR14.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Collins TR17.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94
G A. Walker TR7.8 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 47
CINBig
G T. Riley TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.4 ast Score 92
F S. Spartalis10.5 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 54
CINBig
F T. Tejada TR17.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91
MonmouthBetterCincinnati
MONM offense173rd of 366 · -5.3
CINBig
CIN defense24th of 366 · +4.9
MONM defense145th of 366 · -3.1
CINSmall
CIN offense49th of 366 · +3.7
Backcourt-5.3 · 4 players
CINBig
Backcourt+12.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player
CINBig
Frontcourt+4.0 · 1 player
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
CINBig
Bench+6.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMONM betterCIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Monmouth
Guards
J. Collins35 minJ. Sanders30 min · TRL. Walker28 min · TRA. Walker28 min · TRM. Durr21 min · TRJ. Dobuol6 min
Forwards
S. Spartalis24 minO. Harvey3 minS. Osei3 min · TRQ. Peters2 minD. PerryNewS. MarjanovicNew
Cincinnati
Guards
J. Campbell35 min · TRT. Carson33 min · TRM. Collins31 min · TRT. Riley28 min · TRM. Colvin27 min · TRA. Fleming26 min · TR
Forwards
T. Tejada36 min · TRR. Allenspach25 min · TRJ. Hastings23 min · TRA. Elamin20 min · TRD. VadenNewD. IwezeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MONMCIN
Scoring
72.0 #241Points per game73.1 #221
1.07 #212Points per possession1.05 #243
67.9 #234Pace (possessions)69.4 #152
Shooting
49.6 #259Effective FG%50.5 #213
34.2 #1563-point %33.9 #175
34.4 #2883-point attempt rate43.8 #94
32.7 #244Free throw rate29.4 #323
Possessions
16.7 #176Turnover rate17.0 #203
31.2 #157Offensive rebound rate30.6 #174
13.7 #167Assists per game16.6 #35
Defense
70.9 #73Points allowed67.6 #27
1.04 #74Points allowed per possession0.97 #9
50.0 #103Opponent effective FG%47.4 #27
33.9 #174Opponent 3-point %31.0 #35
19.8 #28Turnovers forced18.2 #89
67.2 #287Defensive rebound rate72.7 #45
7.6 #69Steals per game6.3 #208
4.2 #57Blocks per game4.2 #53
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Monmouth

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Hofstra69–75
  • Wvs Campbell74–64
  • Wvs Drexel65–57
  • W@ Northeastern89–83
  • Wvs Elon73–57

A week or more of rest.

Cincinnati

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCF65–66
  • Wvs Utah73–66
  • L@ TCU63–73
  • Wvs BYU90–68
  • Wvs Oklahoma St91–68

A week or more of rest.