Northern Kentucky Norse at Oakland Golden Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETOU Credit Union O'rena · at Oakland · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Kentucky and Oakland
NKU	This season	OAK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OAK 80–75 · win probability OAK 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OAK has more of the edges

NKU 3, OAK 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

OAKBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NKU 35.9, OAK 38.1. Allowed: NKU 37.2, OAK 24.6

Context

Schedule so far

NKU has played the 289th-hardest schedule, OAK the 150th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OAKSmall

Three-pointers

NKU hits 33.6% and allows 36.6%; OAK hits 34.7% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 44.9% and 34.0% of their shots

OAKSmall

OAK offense vs NKU defense

Offense 159th of 366 against a defense 249th, on the model’s ratings

NKUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NKU 32.2%, OAK 31.3%. Defensive: NKU 68.4%, OAK 65.6%

NKUSmall

NKU offense vs OAK defense

Offense 209th of 366 against a defense 266th, on the model’s ratings

OAKSmall

Home court

OAK at home. This season: OAK 0-0 at home, NKU 0-0 away

NKUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NKU 16.3%, OAK 14.7%. Forced: NKU 18.6%, OAK 15.1%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NKU 53.2 and allows 54.2; OAK 52.7 and allows 54.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NKU 26%, OAK 20%. Transfers in: NKU 4, OAK 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: NKU plays 71.5 a game (55th fastest), OAK 71.1 (67th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	OAK -4.2	—
Total	—	155.0	—
Projected score	—	NKU 75.4 · OAK 79.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OAK -2.4	—
1H total	72.4	—
1H projected score	NKU 35 · OAK 37.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NKU WLWWL	13-18	42%	5-10	—
OAK LWWLL	17-14	55%	5-7	—

Venue/role: NKU away; OAK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NKU UOOOO	21-10	68%	17-14
OAK UUUOO	19-12	61%	15-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NKU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
OAK	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ DETM	L77–90LO
Dec 11	vs SCST	W58–47WU
Dec 15	@ ETSU	L63–75LU

Oakland

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ IUIN	W86–74WU
Dec 8	@ ARK	L62–92LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 12 since 2021-22

NKU 7–5 OAKNKU leads · 12 games since 2021-22 · NKU 8-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 4, 2025-26	NKU 85 @ OAK 84	OAK -1.5	NKU W
Feb 1, 2025-26	NKU 65 @ OAK 76	OAK -3.5	OAK W
Dec 17, 2025-26	OAK 82 @ NKU 77	NKU -3.5	OAK W
Feb 1, 2024-25	NKU 84 @ OAK 75	OAK -6.5	NKU W
Jan 11, 2024-25	OAK 68 @ NKU 53	NKU -3.5	OAK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Kentucky

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-10

68% overs · avg +5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

L L W W W W W L W L L W W W W L W L L L L L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1842%

L L W W W W W L L L L W L W W L W L L L L L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

21-1068%

O U O U O U O O O U O O U O U O O O O O U O U O O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@TENN	L 56-95	+27.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	@ETSU	L 63-75	+6.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 20	@CMU	W 90-66	+4.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsEKU	W 82-71	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 26	vsWOF	W 93-83	-3.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 176
Nov 29	vsBU	W 74-65	-7.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 3	vsCLE	W 95-80	-14.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 175
Dec 6	@PFW	L 77-79	+1.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 13	@BELL	W 80-76	-4.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 156
Dec 17	vsOAK	L 77-82	-3.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 21	vsCOFC	L 74-85	-5.5	L −16.5	153.5	O 159
Dec 29	@RMU	W 79-77	-1.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 1	vsIUIN	W 81-72	-13.5	L −4.5	176.5	U 153
Jan 4	vsYSU	W 94-79	-4.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 173
Jan 9	@MILW	W 85-67	+1.5	W +19.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 11	@GB	L 78-80	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 15	vsDETM	W 96-71	-10.5	W +14.5	159.5	O 167
Jan 17	vsRMU	L 89-92	-7.5	L −10.5	153.5	O 181
Jan 24	@WRST	L 80-88	+1.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 168
Jan 30	@DETM	L 77-90	-5.5	L −18.5	161.5	O 167
Feb 1	@OAK	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	166.5	U 141
Feb 4	vsGB	L 84-87	-7.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 171
Feb 7	vsMILW	W 67-62	-6.5	L −1.5	156.5	U 129
Feb 12	@IUIN	W 84-81	-5.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 165
Feb 18	vsPFW	W 87-71	-5.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 158
Feb 22	@YSU	L 58-64	+2.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 25	@CLE	W 81-70	-8.5	W +2.5	166.5	U 151
Feb 28	vsWRST	L 91-92	-3.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 183
Mar 4	@OAK	W 85-84	+1.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 169
Mar 8	vsGB	W 96-76	-3.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 172
Mar 9	vsWRST	L 90-103	-1.5	L −14.5	157.5	O 193

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

−11.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−5.5

CMU

W 90-66

+28.5

EKU

W 82-71

+6.5

WOF

W 93-83

+6.5

W 74-65

+1.5

CLE

W 95-80

+0.5

PFW

L 77-79

−0.5

BELL

W 80-76

−0.5

OAK

L 77-82

−8.5

COFC

L 74-85

−16.5

RMU

W 79-77

+0.5

IUIN

W 81-72

−4.5

YSU

W 94-79

+10.5

MILW

W 85-67

+19.5

L 78-80

−6.5

DETM

W 96-71

+14.5

RMU

L 89-92

−10.5

WRST

L 80-88

−6.5

DETM

L 77-90

−18.5

OAK

L 65-76

−7.5

L 84-87

−10.5

MILW

W 67-62

−1.5

IUIN

W 84-81

−2.5

PFW

W 87-71

+10.5

YSU

L 58-64

−3.5

CLE

W 81-70

+2.5

WRST

L 91-92

−4.5

OAK

W 85-84

+2.5

W 96-76

+16.5

WRST

L 90-103

−14.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

+13.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−4.5

CMU

W 90-66

+9.5

EKU

W 82-71

−3.5

WOF

W 93-83

+26.5

W 74-65

−4.5

CLE

W 95-80

+16.5

PFW

L 77-79

+2.5

BELL

W 80-76

+9.5

OAK

L 77-82

−4.5

COFC

L 74-85

+5.5

RMU

W 79-77

+6.5

IUIN

W 81-72

−23.5

YSU

W 94-79

+26.5

MILW

W 85-67

−5.5

L 78-80

+13.5

DETM

W 96-71

+7.5

RMU

L 89-92

+27.5

WRST

L 80-88

+12.5

DETM

L 77-90

+5.5

OAK

L 65-76

−25.5

L 84-87

+21.5

MILW

W 67-62

−27.5

IUIN

W 84-81

+0.5

PFW

W 87-71

+4.5

YSU

L 58-64

−30.5

CLE

W 81-70

−15.5

WRST

L 91-92

+29.5

OAK

W 85-84

+7.5

W 96-76

+25.5

WRST

L 90-103

+35.5

over 21under 10avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oakland

31 games played

Straight up

15-16

48% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-12

61% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1648%

L L L L L W W W W L W L L W W W L W W L W W W L L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1455%

L W L W L W W W L L W W L W W W L W W L W W W L L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1261%

O O U O O O O O O U U U O O O O O U U O O U U U O O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MICH	L 78-121	+24.5	L −18.5	156.5	O 199
Nov 7	@PUR	L 77-87	+31.5	W +21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 12	@HOU	L 45-78	+30.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 17	@UCF	L 83-87	+13.5	W +9.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 21	@EMU	L 91-97	-1.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 188
Nov 24	vsLAM	W 83-68	-3.5	W +11.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 25	@MONT	W 95-87	+4.5	W +12.5	162.5	O 182
Dec 3	vsPFW	W 101-92	-4.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 193
Dec 6	vsTOL	W 98-97	-4.5	L −3.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 13	@UNI	L 63-75	+8.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 138
Dec 17	@NKU	W 82-77	+3.5	W +8.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 20	vsMSU	L 70-79	+19.5	W +10.5	155.5	U 149
Dec 29	@WRST	L 73-88	+3.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	@YSU	W 85-83	+1.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 4	vsRMU	W 96-73	-1.5	W +21.5	161.5	O 169
Jan 9	vsCLE	W 97-74	-15.5	W +7.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 11	vsWRST	L 84-94	-4.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 178
Jan 15	@MILW	W 73-60	-2.5	W +10.5	166.5	U 133
Jan 18	@GB	W 88-63	-4.5	W +20.5	153.5	U 151
Jan 21	vsIUIN	L 85-103	-14.5	L −32.5	176.5	O 188
Jan 24	@DETM	W 95-87	-6.5	W +1.5	167.5	O 182
Jan 28	@PFW	W 74-65	-1.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 139
Feb 1	vsNKU	W 76-65	-3.5	W +7.5	166.5	U 141
Feb 4	@CLE	L 78-91	-7.5	L −20.5	170.5	U 169
Feb 12	vsYSU	L 82-86	-3.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 15	@RMU	L 69-93	+1.5	L −22.5	156.5	O 162
Feb 20	vsGB	L 68-73	-6.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 141
Feb 22	vsMILW	W 81-70	-5.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 151
Feb 25	@IUIN	W 86-74	-5.5	W +6.5	169.5	U 160
Feb 28	vsDETM	L 89-95	-8.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 184
Mar 4	vsNKU	L 84-85	-1.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

−18.5

PUR

L 77-87

+21.5

HOU

L 45-78

−2.5

UCF

L 83-87

+9.5

EMU

L 91-97

−7.5

LAM

W 83-68

+11.5

MONT

W 95-87

+12.5

PFW

W 101-92

+4.5

TOL

W 98-97

−3.5

UNI

L 63-75

−3.5

NKU

W 82-77

+8.5

MSU

L 70-79

+10.5

WRST

L 73-88

−11.5

YSU

W 85-83

+3.5

RMU

W 96-73

+21.5

CLE

W 97-74

+7.5

WRST

L 84-94

−14.5

MILW

W 73-60

+10.5

W 88-63

+20.5

IUIN

L 85-103

−32.5

DETM

W 95-87

+1.5

PFW

W 74-65

+7.5

NKU

W 76-65

+7.5

CLE

L 78-91

−20.5

YSU

L 82-86

−7.5

RMU

L 69-93

−22.5

L 68-73

−11.5

MILW

W 81-70

+5.5

IUIN

W 86-74

+6.5

DETM

L 89-95

−14.5

NKU

L 84-85

−2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

+42.5

PUR

L 77-87

+5.5

HOU

L 45-78

−15.5

UCF

L 83-87

+6.5

EMU

L 91-97

+34.5

LAM

W 83-68

+2.5

MONT

W 95-87

+19.5

PFW

W 101-92

+30.5

TOL

W 98-97

+28.5

UNI

L 63-75

−11.5

NKU

W 82-77

−4.5

MSU

L 70-79

−6.5

WRST

L 73-88

+1.5

YSU

W 85-83

+10.5

RMU

W 96-73

+7.5

CLE

W 97-74

+1.5

WRST

L 84-94

+16.5

MILW

W 73-60

−33.5

W 88-63

−2.5

IUIN

L 85-103

+11.5

DETM

W 95-87

+14.5

PFW

W 74-65

−23.5

NKU

W 76-65

−25.5

CLE

L 78-91

−1.5

YSU

L 82-86

+12.5

RMU

L 69-93

+5.5

L 68-73

−12.5

MILW

W 81-70

−8.5

IUIN

W 86-74

−9.5

DETM

L 89-95

+23.5

NKU

L 84-85

+7.5

over 19under 12avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oakland has the better starters

Position by position: N Kentucky 0, Oakland 2, even 3

N KentuckyBetterOakland

G E. Elliott4.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.4 ast Score 3

OAKSmall

G N. Mashhour9 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 22

G E. Acker TR5.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 38

Even

G B. Swartz TR7.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41

F N. Pagotto TR10.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1 ast Score 68

Even

F B. El Shakery TR11.2 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 59

F W. Shortt TR6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

OAKSmall

F C. Fields TR9.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 79

F D. Rakotonanahary3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 25

Even

F J. Hill TR7 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

N KentuckyBetterOakland

NKU offense209th of 366 · -6.3

NKUSmall

OAK defense266th of 366 · -6.8

NKU defense249th of 366 · -6.5

OAKSmall

OAK offense159th of 366 · -4.8

Backcourt-5.4 · 2 players

OAKSmall

Backcourt-3.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players

Bench-2.4 · 3 players

Even

Bench-1.7 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestNKU betterOAK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Kentucky

Guards

E. Elliott29 minE. Acker19 min · TRB. Davis-Ray7 min · TRB. Darbyshire6 minJ. ApathjangNewW. FosterNew

Forwards

N. Pagotto27 min · TRW. Shortt20 min · TRD. Rakotonanahary12 minR. Tolliver6 minJ. RuizNewP. Otto MaeNew

Oakland

Guards

N. Mashhour28 minB. Swartz21 min · TRW. Marshall12 minR. Taylor11 min · TRW. KassiNewH. MashhourNew

Forwards

B. El Shakery27 min · TRC. Fields18 min · TRJ. Hill17 min · TRN. AhnerNewC. ThompsonNewI. TheodileNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NKU80.9 #47

OAK81.6 #37

Points per possession

NKU1.13 #81

OAK1.14 #66

Pace (possessions)

NKU71.5 #55

OAK71.1 #67

Shooting

Effective FG%

NKU53.2 #93

OAK52.7 #114

3-point %

NKU33.6 #193

OAK34.7 #131

3-point attempt rate

NKU44.9 #71

OAK34.0 #294

Free throw rate

NKU35.9 #158

OAK38.1 #100

Possessions

Turnover rate

NKU16.3 #158

OAK14.7 #47

Offensive rebound rate

NKU32.2 #117

OAK31.3 #152

Assists per game

NKU15.5 #65

OAK15.7 #60

Defense

Points allowed

NKU78.7 #284

OAK82.8 #344

Points allowed per possession

NKU1.10 #225

OAK1.17 #340

Opponent effective FG%

NKU54.2 #305

OAK54.7 #322

Opponent 3-point %

NKU36.6 #333

OAK34.3 #206

Turnovers forced

NKU18.6 #66

OAK15.1 #275

Defensive rebound rate

NKU68.4 #236

OAK65.6 #324

Steals per game

NKU8.3 #25

OAK7.2 #106

Blocks per game

NKU3.5 #134

OAK3.7 #110

NKU		OAK
Scoring
80.9 #47	Points per game	81.6 #37
1.13 #81	Points per possession	1.14 #66
71.5 #55	Pace (possessions)	71.1 #67
Shooting
53.2 #93	Effective FG%	52.7 #114
33.6 #193	3-point %	34.7 #131
44.9 #71	3-point attempt rate	34.0 #294
35.9 #158	Free throw rate	38.1 #100
Possessions
16.3 #158	Turnover rate	14.7 #47
32.2 #117	Offensive rebound rate	31.3 #152
15.5 #65	Assists per game	15.7 #60
Defense
78.7 #284	Points allowed	82.8 #344
1.10 #225	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #340
54.2 #305	Opponent effective FG%	54.7 #322
36.6 #333	Opponent 3-point %	34.3 #206
18.6 #66	Turnovers forced	15.1 #275
68.4 #236	Defensive rebound rate	65.6 #324
8.3 #25	Steals per game	7.2 #106
3.5 #134	Blocks per game	3.7 #110

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Kentucky

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-11 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Wright St90–103
Wvs Green Bay96–76
W@ Oakland85–84
Lvs Wright St91–92
W@ Cleveland St81–70

A week or more of rest.

Oakland

15-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs N Kentucky84–85
Lvs Detroit Mercy89–95
W@ IU Indy86–74
Wvs Milwaukee81–70
Lvs Green Bay68–73

A week or more of rest.

N Kentucky @ Oakland

What could decide it: OAK has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Kentucky

Oakland

Oakland has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Kentucky

Oakland